Examine individual changes

'{{Use mdy dates|date=January 2016}} {{Infobox person | image = MarkWSpitznagel.jpg | image_size = 200px | caption = Spitznagel at [[Bloomberg Tower]] in New York City, 2016 | name = Mark Spitznagel | birth_name = Mark William Spitz-Nagel<ref name="Worth">Richard Bradley, <cite>[http://www.worth.com/index.php/component/content/article/2-make/7091-the-goat-whisperer The Goat Whisperer]</cite>, ''Worth'', December, 2014</ref> | birth_date = {{birth date and age|1971|03|05}} | birth_place = [[Ann Arbor]], Michigan<ref name="CIMS"><cite>[http://www.cims.nyu.edu/alumni/newsletters/fall_winter_newsletter_2009_vol_7_no_1.pdf The Secret to Mark Spitznagel’s Success? Not Following the Crowd]</cite>, ''CIMS Newsletter'', Fall/Winter, 2009</ref> | residence = [[Michigan]], [[Florida]] ([[Miami]]) | nationality = [[United States|American]] | occupation = Hedge Fund Manager<br/>(Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Universa Investments L.P.) | organization = | networth = | known_for = | title = | party = [[Libertarian Republican]] | spouse = Amy Spitznagel | children = | website = | footnotes = | module = {{Infobox economist | embed = yes | school_tradition = [[Austrian School of Economics]] | alma_mater = [[New York University]],<ref name="CIMS"/> [[Georgetown University]],<ref name="Wiley"><cite>''[http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-111834703X.html The Dao of Capital: Austrian Investing in a Distorted World]''. New York: John Wiley & Sons. September, 2013</ref> [[Kalamazoo College]]<ref name="UNIVERSA"><cite>[http://universa.net Universa Investments L.P.]</cite>, firm website</ref> | known_for = | influences = [[Ludwig von Mises]], [[Friedrich Hayek]], [[Mahatma Gandhi]] | influenced = | contributions = “Roundabout investing”, ''The Dao of Capital'' (Wiley 2013) }} }} '''Mark Spitznagel''' (born March 5, 1971) is an American investor, [[Derivative (finance)|derivatives]] [[Trader (finance)|trader]], author, and [[Sustainable agriculture|sustainable farmer]]. Spitznagel is known for his frequently [[bearish]] “[[Austrian School|Austrian]]”-based stock market investing and pioneering “[[Fat tail|tail]]-[[Hedge (finance)|hedging]],” and for his hugely profitable billion dollar derivatives bet on the [[stock market crash of 2008]],<ref name="WSJprofile09"><cite>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124519615631521063.html Spitznagel Bets Reputation on Inflation]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', June 17, 2009</ref><ref name="ReutersHedging"><cite>[http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/27/us-markets-tailrisk-idUSTRE80Q1O920120127 Hedging against disaster even as markets grow calm]</cite>, ''Reuters'', January 27, 2012</ref><ref name="BBProfile"><cite>[http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-06/black-swan-money-manager-returning-23-anticipating-bear-market.html When Black Swans Fly]</cite>, ''Bloomberg Markets'', November, 2011</ref><ref name="Risk"><cite>[http://www.risk.net/risk-magazine/feature/1931655/universa-approach-hedging-tail-risk Profiting from Disaster]</cite>, ''Risk magazine'', January, 2011</ref><ref name="AR"><cite>[http://www.absolutereturn-alpha.com/Issue/83877/Archive-AR-Magazine/November-2011.html Spreading his wings]</cite>, ''Absolute Return + Alpha'', November, 2011</ref><ref name="WSJ08">{{citation |url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122567265138591705.html |title=October Pain Was ‘Black Swan’ Gain |work=The Wall Street Journal |date=November 4, 2008}}</ref><ref name="Wrap"><cite>[http://www.thewrap.com/media/column-post/republican-ron-paul-sets-hollywood-fundraiser-march-20-35947 Ron Paul Sets Los Angeles Fundraiser]</cite>, ''The Wrap'', March 4, 2012</ref><ref name="ReutersPaul"><cite>[http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/05/us-ronpaul-losangeles-idUSTRE82403A20120305 Ron Paul sets Los Angeles fund-raiser]</cite>, ''Reuters'', March 4, 2012</ref> as well as for having allegedly caused the stock market crash of 2010.<ref name="WSJMay11"><cite>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704879704575236771699461084.html Did a Big Bet Help Trigger 'Black Swan' Stock Swoon?]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', May 11, 2010</ref> He is considered “one of Wall Street’s most bearish”<ref name="NYTBearish"><cite>[http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/11/24/bear-going-vs-the-bulls-still-profits A Bearish Hedge Fund Bets Against the Bulls and Still Profits]</cite>, ''The New York Times'', November 24, 2014</ref> as well as “biggest and boldest investors.”<ref name="MarketwatchWSJ"><cite>[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-hedge-fund-managers-to-watch-in-2012-2011-12-23 5 hedge-fund managers to watch in 2012: How to gain market insight from Wall Street’s biggest, boldest investors]</cite>, ''MarketWatch Wall Street Journal'', December 23, 2011</ref> Spitznagel is the founder, owner, and Chief Investment Officer of the multibillion-dollar [[hedge fund]] management company Universa Investments, L.P., based in [[Miami, Florida]].<ref name="UNIVERSA"/><ref name="WSJprofile09"/><ref name="BBProfile"/><ref name="Risk"/><ref name="WSJ08"/><ref name="WSJ07"><cite>Mr. Volatility and the Swan</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', July 13, 2007</ref><ref name="BBMarkets"><cite>[http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/bloombergProfile.pdf Flight of the Black Swan]</cite>, ''Bloomberg Markets'', May, 2008</ref><ref name="BB"><cite>[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDVgqxiT9RSg&refer=home Taleb’s ‘Black Swan’ Investors Post Gains as Markets Take Dive]</cite>, ''Bloomberg'', October 14, 2008</ref><ref name="WSJ09"><cite>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124380234786770027.html Black Swan Fund Makes a Big Bet on Inflation]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', June 1, 2009</ref><ref name="WSJPrBS"><cite>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703791804575439562361453200.html Preparing for the Next 'Black Swan']</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', August 21, 2010</ref><ref name="FINalt"><cite>[http://www.finalternatives.com/node/26160 Spitznagel’s Universa Moves To Miami]</cite>, ''FINalternatives'', Feb 19, 2014</ref> Spitznagel reportedly has large Chinese and Middle Eastern [[sovereign wealth funds]] among his investment partners,<ref name="WSJCIC"><cite>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704340504575447950667158906.html Taleb’s Pessimism Lures CIC]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', August 24, 2010</ref> and he has since closed his funds to new investors.<ref name="WSJprofile09"/><ref name="WSJ09"/> Prior to becoming a hedge fund manager, Spitznagel had been an independent [[Floor trader|pit-trader]] at the [[Chicago Board of Trade]]<ref name="UNIVERSA"/><ref name="WSJprofile09"/><ref name="BBProfile"/><ref name="Risk"/><ref name="WSJ08"/><ref name="BBMarkets"/> and the head of [[Equity derivative|equity options]] in a secretive [[proprietary trading]] division (called the [[PDT Partners#History|Process Driven Trading group]]) of [[Morgan Stanley]] in [[New York City|New York]]<ref name="UNIVERSA"/><ref name="Risk"/> (until they requested that he sign a stringent “noncompete” agreement<ref name="WSJprofile09"/>). Spitznagel has a graduate degree in Mathematics from [[New York University]] ([[Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences]]) and undergraduate from [[Kalamazoo College]] in [[Michigan]].<ref name="CIMS"/><ref name="UNIVERSA"/> Spitznagel built a large farm in Michigan, [[Idyll Farms]], that pastures dairy goats and produces award-winning [[Artisan cheese|artisanal]] [[chèvre]]. He is the author of the 2013 book ''The Dao of Capital'', called by ''[[Forbes]]'' magazine “one of the most important books of the year, or any year for that matter.”<ref name="Tamny"><cite>[http://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2013/08/21/black-swans-are-a-myth-government-intervention-is-the-only-black-swan/ Black Swans Are A Myth, Government Intervention Is The Only Black Swan]</cite>, ''Forbes'', August 21, 2013</ref> Spitznagel has been a significant supporter of the [[Republican Party presidential primaries|Republican Presidential campaigns]] of [[United States House of Representatives|U.S. Congressman]] [[Ron Paul]] and [[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]] [[Rand Paul]]—including as Senior Economic Advisor.<ref name="NYT061905"><cite>[http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/20/business/dealbook/rand-paul-names-hedge-fund-chief-mark-spitznagel-as-economic-adviser.html Rand Paul Names Hedge Fund Chief Mark Spitznagel as Economic Advisor]</cite>, ''The New York Times'', June 19, 2015</ref><ref name="RandWashExam"><cite>[http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/hedge-fund-giant-joins-rand-paul-campaign-as-economic-adviser/article/2566614 Hedge fund giant joins Rand Paul campaign as economic adviser]</cite>, ''Washington Examiner'', June 19, 2015</ref> == Universa Investments == In 2007, Spitznagel founded the hedge fund Universa Investments, where he is the Chief Investment Officer. Universa “made one of the biggest profits on Wall Street during the 2008 financial crisis” (according to ''[[CNBC]]''),<ref name="CNBCMaria"><cite>[http://www.cnbc.com/id/101137648 Scary! This bearish call points to 40% market drop]</cite>, ''CNBC.com'', October 23, 2013</ref> scoring returns of over 100% as the [[S&P 500|Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index]] lost over a third of its value,<ref name="WSJprofile09"/><ref name="BBProfile"/><ref name="Risk"/><ref name="WSJ08"/><ref name="BB"/><ref name="WSJ09"/><ref name="WSJPrBS"/><ref name="Forbes2"><cite>[http://www.forbes.com/wallstreet/2009/01/15/risk-nassim-nicholas-taleb-biz-wall-cz_rl_0115talebside.html Black Swan Bets]</cite>, ''Forbes'', January 15, 2009</ref><ref name="NW"><cite>[http://www.newsweek.com/id/178826 The Stars of The Recession]</cite>, ''Newsweek'', January 19, 2009</ref> and making Spitznagel “a fortune” according to ''[[The Wall Street Journal]]''.<ref name="WSJprofile09"/> “Spitznagel’s strategy stems from his skepticism toward government efforts to revive the economy,” and as markets rise he is “content with descriptions that his fund had small losses each year as he wagered against the market.”<ref name="NYTBearish"/> He claims that he specifically targets very “lumpy returns” (what ''Forbes'' has called “a string of mediocre results interrupted occasionally by spectacular years”<ref name="Forbes1"><cite>[http://www.forbes.com/opinions/forbes/2009/0202/020.html The Oracle of Doom]</cite>, ''Forbes'', February 2, 2009</ref>) which he says “ultimately keep away competitors.”<ref name="Risk"/> As Spitznagel describes the “asymmetric returns” of his strategy: {{cquote|We tend to lose or draw—most of the time—these small battles or skirmishes. But, ultimately, we win the wars.<ref name="FoxB"><cite>[http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4491919269001/will-rising-rates-be-bad-for-the-markets/ Will rising rates be bad for the markets?]</cite>, ''Fox Business Network'', September 17, 2015</ref>}} Spitznagel calls himself “a hedge fund manager that actually hedges for his clients. This is something of an old fashioned idea in this day of just gambling on the next Fed bailout.” ''[[The New York Times]]'' has described Universa investors’ ability to profit even in a [[bull market]] driven higher by central bank interventions, as Spitznagel’s hedging allows his investors to hold [[Long (finance)|long]] stock positions that they often otherwise wouldn’t.<ref name="NYTBearish"/> He has said that his strategy specifically allows his investors to be “responsibly long” the stock market.<ref name="BBTV"><cite>[http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-05-13/meet-the-investor-hungry-for-a-bull-market-correction Meet the World’s Most Bearish Investment Manager]</cite>, ''Bloomberg TV'', May 13, 2015</ref> A 2015 video ([https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyGtiiGBEc8 “''Spitznagel on the Paradox of Higher Returns with Lower Risk''”]) shows Spitznagel in front of a white board explaining his strategy in basic terms, specifically how his investors do well “in both up and down markets.” ''The Wall Street Journal'' alleged that a large purchase of [[put options]] by Spitznagel in the minutes leading up to the [[2010 Flash Crash]] (when the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average|Dow]] lost over 9% of its value during the day) was among its primary triggers<ref name="WSJMay11"/><ref><cite>[http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1110348120100511 Chicago fires back over stocks sell-off blame]</cite>, ''Reuters'', May 11, 2010</ref> (and for which Spitznagel was [[subpoenaed]] by the [[U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission]]<ref name="Risk"/>). He wrote a ''Wall Street Journal'' [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704717004575268922083097384.html op-ed] in his defense.<ref name="WSJFC">Spitznagel, <cite>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704717004575268922083097384.html The Fed and the May 6 'Flash Crash']</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', May 28, 2010</ref> In 1999, Spitznagel and author and [[Mathematical finance|financial mathematician]] [[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]] together created the first ever “tail-hedging” fund, Empirica Capital,<ref name="AR"/><ref name="NY">[[Malcolm Gladwell]], <cite>[http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm Blowing Up]</cite>, ''The New Yorker'', April 29, 2002</ref><ref name="GW">[[Malcolm Gladwell]], <cite>''[[What the Dog Saw: And Other Adventures]]''</cite>. Little, Brown and Company. 2009</ref><ref name="NRO"/> and “became close partners, Spitznagel the disciplined trader, Taleb the more abstract theorist.”<ref name="Worth"/> Taleb went on to popularize the “[[Black swan theory|black swan]]” concept in his books, whereas Spitznagel went on to found Universa and thus modify and implement the strategy (which became a major hedge fund investment asset class<ref name="AR"/><ref name="NYT11"/>). Taleb has said that he “advises Universa but does not have specific knowledge of the firm's strategy,”<ref name="CNBC"><cite>[http://www.cnbc.com/id/37111193 'Black Swan' Author Denies Role in Market Meltdown]</cite>, ''CNBC.com'', May 12, 2010</ref> contrary to occasional press crediting him with Universa’s investing.<ref name="DealbreakerTaleb"><cite>[http://dealbreaker.com/2015/09/nassim-taleb-accepts-the-accolades-of-an-adoring-public-only-when-he-deserves-them/ Nassim Taleb Accepts The Accolades Of An Adoring Public Only When He Deserves Them]</cite>, ''Dealbreaker'', September 1, 2015</ref> Taleb has said “One thing Mark taught me was that when someone isn't afraid of losing small amounts, they’re almost invincible.”<ref name="WSJprofile09"/> “Mark’s portfolio is robust.”<ref name="AR"/> Some have called Spitznagel’s approach “doomsday” investing,<ref name="NYT11"><cite>[http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/06/29/a-new-investment-strategy-preparing-for-end-times/ New Investment Strategy: Preparing for End Times]</cite>, ''The New York Times'', June 29, 2011</ref> for which, according to ''Forbes'', he has many “copycat” followers.<ref name="ForbesCopycats"><cite>[http://www.forbes.com/sites/maureenfarrell/2011/06/08/wall-streets-black-swan-copycats/ Wall Street’s Black Swan Copycats]</cite>, ''Forbes'', June 8, 2011</ref> Spitznagel is presumed to employ positions such as [[out-of-the-money]] puts on overvalued equities<ref name="WSJprofile09"/><ref name="BBProfile"/><ref name="AR"/><ref name="WSJ08"/> (for example, [[Lehman Brothers]],<ref name="NYT09"><cite>[http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/29/nassim-taleb-i-was-happy-lehman-went-bust/ DealBook]</cite>, ''The New York Times'', January 29, 2009</ref> about which he has responded “It’s a regrettable aspect of our trade that we tend to do very well on others’ misfortune”<ref name="WSJ09_1"><cite>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123457658749086809.html#articleTabs%3Darticle Overheard]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', February 14, 2009</ref>), which he regards as primarily a value-driven bullish play on cheapened markets, providing dry powder specifically when asset prices are depressed<ref name="AR"/> (making him “the inverse [[Warren Buffett]]”<ref name="KPCC"><cite>[http://www.scpr.org/blogs/economy/2012/03/05/4955/meet-mark-spitznagel-ron-pauls-l-hedge-fund-guy/ Meet Mark Spitznagel, Ron Paul’s L.A. hedge-fund guy]</cite>, ''KPCC, Southern California Public Radio'', March 5, 2012</ref><ref name="DJ"><cite>[http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/320718 Hedge-fund manager Mark Spitznagel to host Ron Paul fundraiser]</cite>, ''Digital Journal'', March 6, 2012</ref> and linking him to the [[value investing]] philosophy). For profiting off market crashes, “I’m always in this position where I look like the jerk,” Spitznagel has said. “The jerks should be [[Ben Bernanke]] and [[Alan Greenspan]],” because of Federal Reserve actions that create [[Economic bubble|asset bubbles]], or for the ways in which the Fed intervenes to stave off the inevitable consequences of those bubbles.<ref name="Worth"/> (He has called central banks “the root of all evil in the market.”<ref name="WSJMeetMS"/>) According to Spitznagel, he has basically been investing against the [[Federal Reserve]] and its [[monetary policies]] his entire career.<ref name="KPCC2"><cite>[http://www.scpr.org/blogs/economy/2012/07/25/6969/spitznagel-ron-paul-hes-going-be-important-figure-/ Why Ron Paul and Mark Spitznagel will not go quietly into the Republican night]</cite>, ''KPCC, Southern California Public Radio'', July 25, 2012</ref> Ironically,<ref name="Falk"><cite>[http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/is-spitznagel-apostate.html Is Spitznagel an Apostate?]</cite>, ''Falkenblog'', June 17, 2012</ref> Spitznagel is largely indifferent to the concept of “black swan events”. In a February, 2015 ''New York Times'' op-ed titled [http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/02/13/the-myth-of-black-swan-market-events/ “The Myth of Black Swan Market Events''”] where he connected every similar high point in the [[Tobin's q|Tobin's Q-ratio]] since 1900 (specifically in 1905, 1929, 1936, 1968, 2000, and 2007) with past monetary interventionism and subsequent stock market losses (of -19%, -85%, -36%, -29%, -44%, and -50%, respectively)—and thus implied that another crash is coming—Spitznagel said: {{cquote|The bear markets we saw following all of these periods were not dreaded “black swan” events at all. They were perfectly predictable, by economic logic alone, the same logic that says governments cannot manipulate market prices without creating distortions that will always, without exception, be counterproductive. In the next stock market crash, we will be told that the fault was some surprising economic or geopolitical shock. Let’s remind ourselves now that this will be false, [[Proximate and ultimate causation|the proximate cause rather than the ultimate cause]]. The ultimate cause is the same ultimate cause that has been demonstrated to us for over a century: distorted and manipulated markets.<ref name="NYTMyth">Spitznagel, <cite>[http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/02/13/the-myth-of-black-swan-market-events/ The Myth of Black Swan Market Events]</cite>, ''The New York Times'', February 13, 2015</ref>}} === Market predictions === While, according to ''The New York Times'', Spitznagel “gained credibility in the investment world by predicting two market routs in the past decade, first in 2000 and then in 2008”<ref name="NYT13"><cite>[http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/09/24/a-hedge-fund-manager-who-doesnt-mind-a-losing-bet/ A Hedge Fund Manager Who Doesn’t Mind a Losing Bet]</cite>, ''The New York Times'', June 29, 2011</ref> (including a large bet against [[Lehman Brothers]]<ref name="WSJ09_1"/>), he has since publicly made other (“[[Cassandra (metaphor)|Cassandra]]-like”<ref name="WSJMeetMS"/>) market calls. *In July 2009, Spitznagel opened a fund betting on [[inflation]]<ref name="WSJprofile09"/><ref name="WSJ09"/>—with a ''Wall Street Journal'' front-page headline stating “''Spitznagel Bets Reputation on Inflation''”<ref name="WSJprofile09"/> (after which the price of [[gold]] and [[silver]] approximately doubled and tripled, respectively, over the next two years, and Spitznagel’s fund made 20% annual gains<ref name="AR"/>). *In November 2013, despite his strong [[Austrian School|Austrian]] views against [[fiat money]], Spitznagel called the market valuation of the [[cryptocurrency]] [[bitcoin]] “scary” and “dangerous”<ref name="FoolBitcoin"><cite>[http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/25/this-fund-manager-thinks-bitcoins-value-is-limited.aspx This Fund Manager Thinks Bitcoin’s Value Is Limited]</cite>, ''The Motley Fool'', November 25, 2013</ref> (and bitcoin subsequently lost over a third of its value within a month, and lost almost 80% in just over a year). *In June 2011, ''CNBC'' reported on a research piece by Spitznagel which predicted a 20% correction in the S&P 500 stock index<ref name="CNBC2"><cite>[http://www.cnbc.com/id/43426068 Black Swan: A 40 Percent Correction?]</cite>, ''CNBC.com'', June 16, 2011</ref> (and the S&P 500 subsequently lost 20% within four months, as Spitznagel’s funds reaped from 20% to up to 10-fold gains<ref name="ReutersHedging"/><ref name="BBUniversa"><cite>[http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-10/universa-pimco-posted-gains-on-black-swan-funds-as-market-fell.html Universa, Pimco Posted Gains on Black-Swan Funds as Market Fell]</cite>, ''Bloomberg'', August 10, 2011</ref>). *In an October 2013 [[Maria Bartiromo]] interview, Spitznagel called for another crash in the U.S. stock market, this time up to 40%—though regarding its timing he said “I think it's probably naive to think we can pinpoint such a thing. If history is any guide, we should expect it sooner than later. But, history need not be a good guide because we're in this monetary experiment the likes of which we really haven't seen.”<ref name="CNBCMaria"/> *In a May 2015 [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-05-13/meet-the-investor-hungry-for-a-bull-market-correction ''Bloomberg TV'' interview (“''Meet the World’s Most Bearish Investment Manager''”)], timed almost to the day of the all-time high in the S&P 500 (as of February 2016) and three months before he made $1 billion (or 20%) in the [[2015 stock market selloff|August 2015 stock market decline]],<ref name="WSJ15"><cite>[http://www.wsj.com/articles/nassim-talebs-black-swan-fund-made-1-billion-this-week-1440793953 A ‘Black Swan’ Fund Made $1 Billion This Week]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', August 28, 2015</ref> Spitznagel called himself “the most bearish investment manager that you will find today. There may be someone hiding in their basement who’s more bearish.” ([[Bloomberg Television|''Bloomberg'']] called him “the world’s most bearish investor”.) He also called the stock market the second greatest stock market bubble in the last one-hundred years.<ref name="BBTV"/> The following September, he said “If August was scary to people, they ain’t seen nothin’ yet.”<ref name="FoxB"/> *In a December 22, 2015 piece for ''Pensions & Investments'' magazine ([http://www.pionline.com/article/20151222/ONLINE/151229981/revisiting-the-ticking-time-bomb/F “''Revisiting the ticking time bomb''”]), Spitznagel wrote: “The crash should commence right about now.”<ref name="PandI"/> According to [[Absolute Return + Alpha|''Absolute Return'']], this was “a rare instance of Spitznagel issuing a market timing call. That call has proven prophetic: the S&P 500 shed more than $1 trillion in market cap during the first week of 2016.”<ref><cite>[http://www.hedgefundintelligence.com/Article/3524831/HFI/Black-swan-investor-Mark-Spitznagel-to-engage-in-Q-A-session-at-Absolute-Return-Symposium.html Spitznagel predicted the January stock market selloff in a research piece last month]</cite>, ''Absolute Return'', January 28, 2016</ref> === Roundabout investing === In Spitznagel’s book ''The Dao of Capital'' he coins his investing approach as “roundabout investing” or “''Umweg''”, named after the [[Austrian School of economics]] concept of ''[[Roundaboutness|Produktionsumweg]]''. (He also refers to it as “[[Austrian investing]]”, as the theories inform his notorious very concentrated bearish bets<ref name="AustriansSwan">Spitznagel, <cite>[http://www.universa.net/UniversaSpitznagel_research_201205.pdf ''The Austrians and the Swan: Birds of a Different Feather'']</cite>. Universa website. May, 2012</ref><ref name="ZHswan"><cite>[http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mark-spitznagel-austrians-and-swan-birds-different-feather Mark Spitznagel: The Austrians And The Swan - Birds Of A Different Feather]</cite>, ''Zero Hedge'', May 21, 2012</ref><ref name="HFR"><cite>[http://www.hedgefundsreview.com/hedge-funds-review/news/2182486/fed-s-monetary-credit-expansion-doomed-fail-lead-stock-market-crash-spitznagel Fed’s monetary credit expansion doomed to fail and lead to stock market crash, says Spitznagel]</cite>, ''Hedge Funds Review'', June 6, 2012</ref> in his so-called “tail-hedging” funds.<ref name="WSJprofile09"/><ref name="BBProfile"/><ref name="Risk"/><ref name="WSJ08"/><ref name="WSJMay11"/><ref name="BB"/><ref name="WSJ09"/><ref name="WSJPrBS"/><ref name="Forbes2"/><ref name="NW"/>) [[Paul Tudor Jones]] has said of Spitznagel’s book that “Mark champions the ''roundabout'',” and “shows how a seemingly difficult immediate loss becomes an advantageous intermediate step for greater future gain, and thus why we must become ‘patient now and strategically impatient later.’”<ref name="Wiley"/> Spitznagel likens his process to “life’s roundabout road to success, as opposed to the direct. The direct way is easy but ultimately unrewarding. The roundabout, indirect way takes longer but leads to a better strategic advantage.”<ref name="Fortune1"><cite>[http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/09/25/waiting-for-the-next-stock-market-crash/ Waiting for the next stock market crash]</cite>, ''Fortune Magazine'', September 25, 2013</ref> Spitznagel’s roundabout is basically about delaying gratification and taking small setbacks now to gain enormous positional advantage later<ref name="Fut2"><cite>[http://www.futuresmag.com/2014/04/01/the-roundabout-path-to-profits-mark-spitznagel-on The roundabout path to profits: Mark Spitznagel on the Dao of Capital]</cite>, ''Futures Magazine'', April 1, 2014</ref>—“the art of taking a circuitous path to an endpoint.”<ref name="NYT13"/> His examples range from forest ecology, baseball, [[Go (game)|go]] and other games (the future equity [[Bluff (poker)|bluff]] losses in poker “are a means to eventual big [[Pot (poker)|pots]] when the advantage is greatest”<ref name="Wiley"/>{{rp|137}}) to the military strategies of [[Sunzi]] and [[Carl von Clausewitz|Clausewitz]]. Spitznagel describes the difficulty in being roundabout in the words of Frédéric Bastiat: “we pursue a small present good which will be followed by a great evil to come, rather than a great good to come at the risk of a small present evil.”<ref name="NRO">Taleb, Spitznagel, <cite>[http://www.nationalreview.com/article/379180/inequality-free-markets-and-crashes-nassim-taleb-mark-spitznagel Inequality, Free Markets, and Crashes]</cite>, ''National Review'', May 31, 2014</ref> (We do what “feels the best in the short run. [quoting [[Bob Dylan|Dylan]]] [[Mr. Tambourine Man|‘Let me forget about today until tomorrow,’]] that kind of thing.”<ref name="BBTV2"/>) Spitznagel calls [[Henry Hazlitt]]’s book ''[[Economics in One Lesson]]'' (an expansion on Bastiat’s 1850 essay ''Ce qu’on voit et ce qu’on ne voit pas'') central to his development, and wrote “if I am able to get my children to read only one economics text in their lifetime, God forbid, it would be Hazlitt’s.”<ref name="Wiley"/>{{rp|19}} According to his research, the [[Cranbrook Schools|Cranbrook Kingswood school]] (where he sends his children<ref name="Worth"/>—and known as an “elite prep school”<ref name="abcnews"><cite>[http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/inside-romneys-elite-prep-school/ Inside Romney’s Elite Prep School]</cite>, ''abc News'', May 10, 2012</ref> with [[Mitt Romney]] among its [[List of Cranbrook Kingswood School alumni|notable alumni]]) is alone among “virtually all the top [[University-preparatory school|preparatory school]]s in the United States” in using Hazlitt’s or any other “Austrian-friendly text” in its curriculum.<ref name="Wiley"/>{{rp|19}} In his book, Spitznagel reveres [[Henry Ford]], “the quintessential roundabout entrepreneur,” for his patience in reinvesting capital and his disdain for “shortsighted finance” and the “side show” of the stock market. In his writings, Spitznagel has extolled the views of [[Ludwig von Mises]], [[Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk]], and Frédéric Bastiat,<ref name="Mises">Spitznagel, <cite>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574443600711779692.html The Man Who Predicted the Depression]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', November 7, 2009</ref><ref name="ForbesCapital">Spitznagel, <cite>[http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/01/31/the-role-of-capital-has-politicians-confused/ The Role of Capital Has Politicians Confused]</cite>, ''Forbes'', January 31, 2013</ref><ref name="ForbesObama">Spitznagel, <cite>[http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/11/15/our-malinvestment-in-president-obama-will-bring-painful-consequences/ Our Malinvestment In President Obama Will Bring Painful Consequences]</cite>, ''Forbes'', November 15, 2012</ref> and criticized the [[Economic interventionism|interventionism]] of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke<ref name="WSJFC"/><ref name="WSJConifer">Spitznagel, <cite>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204903804577082533052728286.html Christmas Trees and the Logic of Growth]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', December 23, 2011</ref> (calling him “easily the most significant market manipulator in history”<ref name="WSJBen">Spitznagel, <cite>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704425804576220983131318962.html All About the Benjamins]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', March 30, 2011</ref>) and [[Barack Obama|U.S. President Barack Obama]].<ref name="ForbesObama"/> Specifically, in his ''Wall Street Journal'' article [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204903804577082533052728286.html “''Christmas Trees and the Logic of Growth''”], and subsequently in ''The Dao of Capital'', Spitznagel made an analogy of the lessons learned from previous [[wildfire suppression]] policy in [[Yellowstone Park]] (what he calls the “Yellowstone Effect”) to the Fed’s [[bailout]] and crash-suppression policies (and resulting [[malinvestment]]).<ref name="WSJConifer"/> In a [http://www.nationalreview.com/article/379180/inequality-free-markets-and-crashes-nassim-taleb-mark-spitznagel conversation] in ''[[National Review]]'' he said: {{cquote|A crash, or the liquidation of assets that have grown unimpeded by economic reality (as if there were more nutrients in the ecosystem than there actually are), looks to academics and bureaucrats—and just about everyone else as well—like the system breaking down. It is actually the system fixing itself. We live in an economic age where we’ve simply lost our ability to look at the world in this way, though I suspect we’ll be reminded of it again sooner rather than later.<ref name="NRO"/>}} He has also [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304356604577343430113336486.html blamed the Fed] for increasing wealth disparity, drawing on the works of Mises, [[Murray Rothbard|Rothbard]], and [[Friedrich Hayek|Hayek]],<ref name="WSJOnePercent">Spitznagel, <cite>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304356604577343430113336486.html How the Fed Favors The 1%]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', April 19, 2012</ref> and his Austrian positions have made him a [http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/20/plutocrats-and-printing-presses/ target] of notable [[Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences|Nobel]] and [[Keynesian]] [[economist]] [[Paul Krugman]].<ref name="NYTKrugman">Krugman, <cite>[http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/20/plutocrats-and-printing-presses/ Plutocrats and Printing Presses]</cite>, ''The New York Times'', April 20, 2012</ref> Spitznagel calls the game of poker his “favorite investing metaphor.” He describes his investing as “getting the best of it,” whereby “the [[pot odds]]—the payoff, or the size of the pot relative to the price of calling—are very favorable compared to the hand odds—the likelihood of making the best hand.”<ref name="PandI"><cite>[http://www.pionline.com/article/20151222/ONLINE/151229981/revisiting-the-ticking-time-bomb/F Revisiting the ticking time bomb]</cite>, ''Pensions & Investments'', December 22, 2015</ref> In a ''New York Times'' article [http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/another-view-bernanke-ups-the-ante/ “''Bernanke Ups the Ante''”], Spitznagel compared the [[Poker strategy#Loose.2Ftight play|tight and loose strategies]] in poker to [[value investing|value]] and [[momentum investing|momentum]] investing, respectively, and high [[Betting in poker#Ante|ante]] poker games to investing during artificially low interest rate environments (where, in both cases, “a game of profound skill is distorted into a degenerate game of luck”).<ref name="NYTPoker">Spitznagel, <cite>[http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/another-view-bernanke-ups-the-ante/ Bernanke Ups the Ante]</cite>, ''The New York Times'', October 4, 2011</ref> In a [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-02-17/has-the-market-crash-only-just-begun ''Bloomberg TV'' interview (“''Has the Market Crash Only Just Begun?''”)] where he discussed the “incredibly binary choices” investors had to make between “betting on Keynesianism” and “betting on price discovery,” Spitznagel said: {{cquote|It’s like in poker, when you know that you’ve either got the best hand or you’ve got the worst hand. This is an area where errors are made, and you want to avoid this area. But this is where we are as investors today, and it’s unavoidable.<ref name="BBTV2"><cite>[http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-02-17/has-the-market-crash-only-just-begun Has the Market Crash Only Just Begun?]</cite>, ''Bloomberg TV'', February 17, 2016</ref>}} Spitznagel credits “a fortuitous economics course at [[Georgetown University]] taught by Professor [[George Viksnins]] (‘Uncle George’)”—who also sparked his interest in poker—as what “started it off” for him,<ref name="Wiley"/> and credits his roundabout investing style to his time right after college as a fledgling pit trader in the [[Treasury bond]] [[Futures contract|futures]] pit at the Chicago Board of Trade.<ref name="BBProfile"/><ref name="Risk"/> He described his time as a young trading clerk idolizing bond trader [[Tom Baldwin (trader)|Lucian Thomas Baldwin]], studying his “disciplined control in alternating between tremendous patience and overwhelming aggression.”<ref name="Wiley"/>{{rp|16}} As the youngest trader in the bond pit at twenty-two,<ref name="Worth"/> Spitznagel was mentored by 50-year veteran [[corn]] and [[soybean]] trader [[Everett Klipp]] (a.k.a. the “Babe Ruth of the Chicago Board of Trade”),<ref name="CIMS"/><ref name="WSJprofile09"/><ref name="BBProfile"/><ref name="Fut"><cite>[http://www.allbusiness.com/specialty-businesses/263100-1.html Everett Klipp: 'Babe Ruth of the CBOT']</cite>, ''Futures Magazine'', May 1, 1999</ref><ref name="ChTrib"><cite>[http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-01-31/features/ct-met-klipp-obit-0201-20110131_1_pit-traders-futures-magazine-discipline Veteran Trader of the Chicago Board of Trade]</cite>, ''Chicago Tribune'', January 31, 2011</ref> who had Spitznagel “pretty much brainwashed by the age of 16” into following his mantra “you’ve got to love to lose money, hate to make money.”<ref name="Risk"/> As Spitznagel recalled the end of a trading day in the pit: {{cquote|Even if I’d lost money, I would be happy going home knowing that I’d traded the way I wanted to trade.<ref name="Worth"/>}} == Personal == According to [[Malcolm Gladwell]] (in a ''[[The New Yorker|New Yorker]]'' article and in his book [[What the Dog Saw: And Other Adventures|''What the Dog Saw'']]), “Spitznagel is blond and from the Midwest and does [[Hatha yoga|yoga]]. He exudes a certain laconic levelheadedness.”<ref name="NY"/><ref name="GW"/> [[Nassim Nicholas Taleb|Nassim Taleb]] likened Spitznagel to [[Herbert von Karajan]] in sartorial appearance<ref name="NY"/><ref name="GW"/> (as well as in their penchant for planes, automobiles, and [[Ashtanga vinyasa yoga|ashtanga yoga]]<ref name="WSJMeetMS"><cite>[http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/08/31/meet-mark-spitznagel-the-investor-behind-universas-big-gain/ Meet Mark Spitznagel, the Investor Behind Universa’s Big Gain]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', August 31, 2015</ref>) and said Spitznagel invests “like a German engineer, fearless and with an iron discipline.”<ref name="Worth"/> (Spitznagel’s paternal ancestry is [[Swiss]],<ref name="BILANZ"><cite>Eine riesige Falle</cite>, ''BILANZ'', September 18, 2015</ref> and his surname means “sharp nail” in [[German language|German]].<ref><cite>''German-American Names''. Genealogical Pub Co. February, 1990</ref>) ''Forbes'' described the “unruffled,” loafered Spitznagel as looking “better prepared for a yacht race than for doomsday.”<ref name="ForbesTail"><cite>[http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2011/0627/money-guide-11-spitznagel-black-swan-cnbc-protect-tail.html Protect Your Tail]</cite>, ''Forbes'', June 27, 2011</ref> As [[Richard Bradley (writer)|Richard Bradley]] wrote (in ''[[Worth (magazine)|Worth]]'' magazine): “You wouldn’t call Spitznagel warm and fuzzy; he’s not the kind of guy who’ll greet you with a bear hug and a slap on the back. But he’s funny in a dry, understated way, thoughtful and candid. Asked a question, he’s more interested in delivering a genuine answer than one intended to reflect well upon him.<ref name="Worth"/> “Spitznagel is unusual not just because of how he invests, but how he lives—far from the typical hedge fund milieu of [[Wall Street]] and [[Greenwich, Connecticut|Greenwich]].”<ref name="Worth"/> “Spitznagel splits his time between Miami, where his 20th-floor office overlooks the [[Atlantic Ocean|Atlantic]], and Michigan, where his family lives and where he owns a farm”<ref name="WSJMeetMS"/> (Idyll Farms) and century-old [[Lake Michigan]] summer compound in [[Northport, Michigan|Northport]]<ref name="BBProfile"/><ref name="AR"/><ref name="NYT11"/><ref name="IDYLL1"><cite>[http://www.leelanaunews.com/news/2012-09-20/Life_in_Leelanau/NORTHPORTS_GOT_YOUR_GOATS.html Northport’s Got Your Goats]</cite>, ''Leelanau Enterprise'', September 20, 2012</ref> and a much-publicized estate<ref><cite>Passion Makes Perfect: The Voluptuous World of Linda and Robert Taubman</cite>, ''Vogue'', November, 1986</ref><ref><cite>''[http://www.teneues.com/shop-us/books/nature-and-ecology/luxury-private-gardens.html Luxury Private Gardens]''. teNeues. 2008</ref><ref><cite> AD100 Hall of Famer’s great white ways</cite>, ''Architectural Digest'', October, 2013</ref> (called ''[[Hugh T. Keyes#Principal works|Woodland]]'') in [[Bloomfield Hills, Michigan|Bloomfield Hills]]. (In 2014, Spitznagel moved his hedge fund Universa from [[Los Angeles]] to Miami, citing Florida’s “more hospitable business and tax environment” than California’s.<ref name="FINalt"/> He accordingly sold his notable [[East Gate Bel Air, Los Angeles|Bel Air]] mansion that he acquired in 2009 from [[Jennifer Lopez]] and [[Marc Anthony]].<ref name="WSJRE10"><cite>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703580904574638592091453768.html J-Lo and Marc Anthony Sell In Los Angeles to Financier]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', January 8, 2010</ref><ref name="LATRE13"><cite>[http://articles.latimes.com/2013/nov/26/business/la-fi-hotprop-mark-spitznagel-20131126 Mark Spitznagel sells former J.Lo estate in Bel-Air]</cite>, ''Los Angeles Times'', November 26, 2013</ref>) ''Bloomberg'' has said “Spitznagel does almost everything with zeal and intensity,” and described him honing his investing discipline by dodging oncoming taxicabs while skateboarding in New York City’s [[Central Park]] (once resulting in a separated shoulder), snowboarding and piloting engineless [[sailplanes]] over California’s [[Sierra Nevada (U.S.)|Sierra Nevada]].<ref name="BBProfile"/> (Spitznagel is also an [[Instrument rating|instrument-rated]] [[Private pilot license|pilot]].<ref name="AR"/>) It reported in 2011 that Spitznagel [[Seed money|seeded]] his [[family office]] (''Idyll Holdings'') with $100 million.<ref name="BBProfile"/> Spitznagel has said that over the years he has gained much investment insight from studying “the holy game of [[poker]].”<ref name="NYTPoker"/> When once asked how to become a great investor, Spitznagel responded: {{cquote|The most valuable things you’ll need to learn to be good at investing are patience, resilience, and self-discipline. You aren’t just going to learn these in school. My best financial advice: practice yoga.<ref name="MH"/>}} Spitznagel was an [[French horn|orchestral horn]] prodigy growing up, “probably the best high school player in the country” (and coincidentally shares the [[Barry Tuckwell|“horn duumvirate birthday”]] with the two greatest horn virtuosos ever), and was admitted to the [[Juilliard School]] of Music. He “wanted to be the [[Orchestra#Organization|principal]] horn player of the [[New York Philharmonic]] or the [[Chicago Symphony Orchestra|Chicago Symphony]],” but scrapped his plans upon first visiting the grain pits at the Chicago Board of Trade.<ref name="Worth"/> In Spitznagel’s youth, his father (Lynn Edward Spitz-Nagel, a [[United Church of Christ|UCC minister]], “[[civil rights]] advocate and [[antiwar]] activist” who died in 1999) would stack books by [[Mahatma Gandhi]] outside his bedroom door, hoping the young Republican would read them.<ref name="Worth"/> Gandhi later became Spitznagel’s declared “hero”.<ref name="BloombergBrief"><cite>Universa CIO Spitznagel Says Markets Underestimating Impact of Fed Tightening</cite>, ''Bloomberg Brief'', June 2, 2015</ref> In 2014, Spitznagel’s older brother (Eric) wrote a humorous article in ''[[The New York Times Magazine]]'' ([http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/01/magazine/the-moat-the-millions-and-the-50-timex-watch.html “''The Moat, the Millions and the $50 Timex Watch''”]) about Mark and the death of their father.<ref name="NYTM">Spitznagel (Eric), <cite>[http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/01/magazine/the-moat-the-millions-and-the-50-timex-watch.html The Moat, the Millions and the $50 Timex Watch]</cite>, ''The New York Times Magazine'', May 30, 2014</ref> == Idyll Farms and sustainable farming == [[File:IdyllFarmsView.jpg|thumb|right|500px|Idyll Farms complex in Northport, Michigan]] {{Main|Idyll Farms}} Spitznagel built, owns, and operates [[Idyll Farms]], a [[pasture]]-based goat farm and creamery that produces award-winning [[Artisan cheese|artisanal]] [[Farmstead cheese|farmstead]] [[chèvre]]. (The word ''[[Idyll]]'' is “a song describing [[pastoral]] life,” as well as a reference to ''[[Siegfried Idyll]]''.<ref name="Worth"/>) In the very first three years of the farm’s operations, Idyll Farms chèvres won multiple and back to back awards at the [[American Cheese Society]] North American competition<ref name="Newswire"><cite>[http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/idyll-farms-wins-two-awards-at-2014-american-cheese-society-national-competition-271092411.html Idyll Farms Wins Two Awards at 2014 American Cheese Society National Competition]</cite>, ''PR Newswire'', August 13, 2014</ref> as well as a [http://www.foodandwine.com/slideshows/best-artisanal-cheese/2 “Best Artisanal Cheese”] from ''[[Food & Wine]]'' magazine.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.foodandwine.com/slideshows/best-artisanal-cheese/2 |title= Best Artisanal Cheese: Idyll Farms, Mont Idyll; Northport, MI |publisher= Food & Wine |access-date=20 January 2016}}</ref> In starting his farm, Spitznagel has said he wanted to “capture the ''[[terroir]]''” of his native region,<ref name="Traverse"><cite>[http://mynorth.com/2014/04/idyll-farms-crafts-old-world-blue-ribbon-goat-cheeses/ Idyll Farms Crafts Old World, Blue Ribbon Goat Cheeses]</cite>, ''Traverse, Northern Michigan’s Magazine'', April 29, 2014</ref> as well as “feel engaged with something real, something tangible, and he wanted his kids to have that connection too.”<ref name="Worth"/> In discussing his life as both financier and farmer, Spitznagel has said “What’s going on in the financial world really shouldn’t matter that much. It’s the tail wagging the dog. What matters is making things, making real things, tangible things people can use.”<ref name="RecordEagle"><cite>[http://www.record-eagle.com/business/x1927886955/Mark-Spitznagel-on-the-world-of-farming-finance Mark Spitznagel on the world of farming, finance]</cite>, ''Traverse City Record-Eagle'', July 27, 2014</ref> [[Nassim Nicholas Taleb|Nassim Taleb]] has quipped that Spitznagel farms in order to satisfy his desire to be “a Victorian country gentleman”.<ref name="Worth"/> Spitznagel imported French experts to help establish and refine his goat farming and cheese making operations.<ref name="RecordEagle"/> (Spitznagel has been called “The Goat Whisperer” due to his habit of speaking to his goats in French.<ref name="Worth"/>) The 200-acre [[Estate (land)|farm estate]] is located at the site of a 150-year-old dairy farm in his hometown of [[Northport, Michigan|Northport]]—a town “perched on the edge of Lake Michigan, it has a peaceful beauty that hasn’t changed much in the decades since he lived there.” The farm is “a beautiful piece of land, with patches of forest, lots of open pasture and rolling hills from which you can see for miles.”<ref name="Worth"/> There, “in the bucolic hills of Michigan,” according to ''[[Der Spiegel]]'', “he produces cheese according to environmentally [[Sustainable agriculture|sustainable]] methods, because he views modern agriculture, with its large-scale [[pesticide]] use and automated [[industrial agriculture|factory farms]], as degenerate.”<ref name="Spiegel"><cite>[http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/cheap-central-bank-money-contributes-to-dangerous-bubbles-a-936823.html Feeding the Bubble: Is the Next Crash Brewing?]</cite>, ''Der Spiegel'', December 3, 2013</ref> He “wanted to show that you could reject the tenets of modern commercial farming and create a sustainable, profitable business without the help of government subsidies or growth hormones or artificial fertilizers.”<ref name="Worth"/> Factory farming, he says, is “an ideal metaphor” for what ails the economy.<ref name="Spiegel"/> To Spitznagel, government intervention in both economic (monetary manipulation) and agricultural systems (the [[subsidization]] of grain and [[GMO]] production, [[monoculture]], and the excessive use of [[petrochemicals]]) distort and impede otherwise productive, healthy, and sustainable natural processes in exchange for short term benefits.<ref name="FoolAg"><cite>[http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/08/sustainable-agriculture-advocate-fund-manager-pred.aspx Sustainable Agriculture Advocate, Fund Manager Predicts Market Crash, Agriculture Downfall]</cite>, ''The Motley Fool'', November 8, 2013</ref> “Modern agriculture is about mining the soil for maximum, immediate productivity,”<ref name="Sierra"><cite>[http://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/2014-4-july-august/green-life/goats-coming-soon-city-near-you Goats: Coming Soon to a City Near You]</cite>, ''Sierra Club'', July/August, 2014</ref> he says, while at Idyll Farms, through sustainable [[Managed intensive rotational grazing|pasture management]] rather than the use of factory-like monoculture feed,<ref name="MH"><cite>[http://www.menshealth.com/fiscally-fit-man/how-to-become-a-billionaire Fi$cally Fit Man: How to Make a Fortune (or Go Broke)]</cite>, ''Men’s Health'', January 2, 2015</ref> “we’re thinking about how productive this land is going to be in a generation. This is antithetical to the world we live in.”<ref name="RecordEagle"/> In a [http://www.voicesofliberty.com/article/americans-must-choose-non-intervention-for-peace-prosperity/ conversation] with Ron Paul, Spitznagel said “It’s crazy how much bureaucrats determine what we grow and what we eat. Sustainable farmers should all be libertarians.”<ref name="RonPaul">Paul, Spitznagel, <cite>[http://www.voicesofliberty.com/article/americans-must-choose-non-intervention-for-peace-prosperity/ Americans Must Choose Non-Intervention for Peace, Prosperity]</cite>, ''Voices of Liberty'', August 26, 2014</ref> Spitznagel has a strong [[Genetically modified food controversies|anti-GMO opinion]], described in his [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/14/business/dealbook/another-too-big-to-fail-system-in-gmos.html anti-GMO piece] in ''The New York Times'' (co-authored with Taleb, and heavily criticized in [[Conservatism in the United States|conservative]] media<ref><cite>[http://www.nationalreview.com/article/421413/genetic-engineering-agriculture-new-york-times The New York Times Gets It Wrong about Genetic Engineering]</cite>, ''National Review'', July 21, 2015</ref>) where he wrote “The GMO experiment, carried out in real time and with our entire food and ecological system as its laboratory, is perhaps the greatest case of human hubris ever.”<ref name="NYTGMO">Spitznagel, Taleb, <cite>[http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/14/business/dealbook/another-too-big-to-fail-system-in-gmos.html Another ‘Too Big to Fail’ System in G.M.O.s]</cite>, ''The New York Times'', July 13, 2015</ref> While Spitznagel has said that his motive in farming “is to change the way that we approach agriculture in this country, not just profit,” regarding his belief in farming as a good investment he has also said: {{cquote|I’m a firm believer that agriculture is going to be a great investment and entrepreneurial opportunity for the next generation. Farming is headed for a [[Sea change (idiom)|sea-change]]: farmers are getting old, we’re depleting the fertility of our topsoil, creating highly susceptible GMO monocultures, and we don’t fully appreciate the implications of water—just to name a few.<ref name="MH"/>}} When (the [[Swiss Standard German|Swiss German]] magazine) ''[[BILANZ]]'' asked him what he would do if the Federal Reserve system finally collapsed and he no longer had any more stock market crashes from which to profit, Spitznagel quipped: {{cquote|Dann werde ich mich auf das Leben als Farmer und meine Ziegen konzentrieren. [I would focus on my life as a farmer and my goats.]<ref name="BILANZ"/>}} == Libertarianism == [[File:RPaulMSpitznagel.jpg|thumb|right|300px|Ron Paul, Spitznagel, and [[P.J. O'Rourke]] in [[Las Vegas]], 2015]] Spitznagel is an avowed [[Libertarianism|libertarian]], and says that he has been one since high school. In fact, “his investing philosophy is really an extension of his deeply held libertarian beliefs about government intervention in the marketplace.”<ref name="Worth"/> In a 2015 ''[[Fox Business Network|Fox Business]]'' [http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4491919269001/will-rising-rates-be-bad-for-the-markets/ interview], Spitznagel said: {{cquote|Great myths die hard. And I think what we’re witnessing today is the slow death of one of the great myths in human history: this idea that centrally planned command economies work, that they’re even feasible, and that they can be successful. It’s one of these enigmatic mythologies of the last hundred years in particular that we've been grappling with. Let’s remember that in the last hundred years a lot of blood has been shed over this mythology. And here we are today, how did we get here again?<ref name="FoxB"/>}} He has been an active [[libertarian Republican]] through his involvement in multiple U.S. presidential campaigns. === Ron Paul campaign === Spitznagel, along with entrepreneur [[Peter Thiel]], has been the principal supporter of the [[Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012|Republican Party presidential primary]] [[Ron Paul presidential campaign, 2012|campaign]] of ([[Texas]] [[Congressman]]) [[Ron Paul]], a friend and fellow Austrian economics advocate who “shares his contempt for the Federal Reserve.”<ref name="DJ"/> In 2012, Spitznagel hosted multiple fundraisers for the congressman<ref name="Wrap"/><ref name="ReutersPaul"/><ref name="KPCC"/><ref name="DJ"/> (including a party at Spitznagel’s [[East Gate Bel Air, Los Angeles|Bel Air]] home<ref name="BI"><cite>[http://www.businessinsider.com/picture-of-mark-spitznagel-and-ron-paul-2012-4 Look Which Hedge Funder Has His Arms Around Ron Paul]</cite>, ''Business Insider'', April 22, 2012</ref>). Spitznagel has been called “arguably Paul’s main economic theorist/popularizer outside an academic context”<ref name="KPCC"/> who “could be [[Treasury Secretary]] to a future president Paul, Ron or Rand.”<ref name="DJ"/> === Rand Paul campaign === Spitznagel was Senior Economic Advisor to the [[Rand Paul presidential campaign, 2016|2016 Republican Presidential campaign]] of (Ron’s son) [[Rand Paul]].<ref name="RandWashExam"/> ''The New York Times'' said “the two share a similar outlook on the government’s role in the financial markets: that it should not have one.”<ref name="NYT061905"/> Paul has called Spitznagel “a very savvy investor who understands the nation’s finances as well as large, hedge fund-type finances. He also has a perspective on the Federal Reserve that helps cut through the mythology.”<ref><cite>[http://www.worth.com/articles/power-100-qa-rand-paul/ Power 100 Q&A: Rand Paul]</cite>, ''Worth'', October, 2015</ref> Spitznagel and Paul have written together how Federal Reserve policies “disproportionately favor wealth,”<ref>Paul, Spitznagel, <cite>[http://reason.com/archives/2015/08/20/the-federal-reserve-is-not-your-friend The Federal Reserve is Not Your Friend]</cite>, ''Reason.com'', August 20, 2015</ref> called the Fed “a political, oligarchic force, and a key part of what looks and functions like a banking cartel” (in ''[[Time magazine]]''),<ref>Paul, Spitznagel, <cite>[ http://time.com/4170969/sen-rand-paul-audit-the-fed/ The Fed Is Crippling America]</cite>, ''Time'', January 10, 2016</ref> and declared “the Fed should set markets free” (in ''The Wall Street Journal'').<ref><cite>[http://www.wsj.com/articles/if-only-the-fed-would-get-out-of-the-way-1442356924 If Only the Fed Would Get Out of the Way]</cite>, ''The Wall Street Journal'', September 15, 2015</ref> == Detroit == Spitznagel is an active supporter of the revitalization of [[Detroit]], Michigan. He has said that he has “very high hopes for the city of Detroit,”<ref name="BloombergBrief"/> and ''The New York Times'' has claimed that “Spitznagel has a vested interest in seeing Detroit make a comeback” due to large personal commercial real estate holdings there.<ref name="NYTIDYLL1"><cite>[http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/06/05/fund-manager-sets-goats-grazing-in-blighted-detroit Fund Manager Sets Goats Grazing in Blighted Detroit]</cite>, ''The New York Times'', June 5, 2014</ref> In 2013, Spitznagel penned a [[Project Syndicate]] article entitled [http://www.project-syndicate.org/online-commentary/revitalizing-detroit-through-austrian-economic-principles-by-mark-spitznagel “''Austrian Detroit?''”].<ref name="AustrianDetroit"><cite>[http://www.project-syndicate.org/online-commentary/revitalizing-detroit-through-austrian-economic-principles-by-mark-spitznagel Austrian Detroit?]</cite>,''Project Syndicate'', August 6, 2013</ref> In 2015, he wrote an article for the ''[[Detroit Free Press]]'' in support of Rand Paul’s “Economic Freedom Zones” plan for Detroit.<ref name="DFPEFZ"><cite>[http://www.freep.com/story/opinion/contributors/2015/08/12/rand-paul-detroit-plan/31552315/ Loosen restrictions to boost Detroit’s revival]</cite>, ''Detroit Free Press'', August 13, 2015</ref> === Idyll Farms Detroit === In particular, Spitznagel has been a leader in Detroit’s [[urban farming]] movement. The [[Sierra Club]] lauded Spitznagel’s vision of a “holistic system of urban agriculture” (where food production is moved closer to consumers in urban communities) and his belief that “Detroit is uniquely positioned to be the birthplace of an agricultural renaissance, because its abandoned lots endow it with plenty of cultivable land, and the city is teeming with people in need of work.”<ref name="Sierra"/> In 2013, Spitznagel established a farm called Idyll Farms Detroit for pasturing goats in Detroit’s heavily blighted [[Brightmoor]] neighborhood. The farm was a philanthropic effort to have the [[grazing]] goats safely and economically clean up overgrown foliage and to help the struggling community through agriculture, jobs, education, and self-sufficiency. Idyll Farms Detroit spent a year setting up infrastructure, hiring local farm laborers, and consulting with Brightmoor community leaders—who advised the farm “not to engage with city hall” because they thought “the city would not enforce the animal control ordinance” banning all livestock within the city.<ref name="MRadio"><cite>[http://michiganradio.org/post/no-goats-allowed-detroit-shuts-down-farms-efforts-rid-brightmoor-blight No goats allowed! Detroit shuts down a farm’s efforts to rid Brightmoor of blight]</cite>, ''NPR'', June 10, 2014</ref> In June, 2014, the farm moved a herd of [[Goat|wethers]] (castrated male goats) along with movable pens and electric fencing from Spitznagel’s Idyll Farms in Northport to Idyll Farms Detroit in Brightmoor. Despite heavy local support and national media attention for “Spitznagel’s [[caprinae|caprine]] ‘[[guerrilla gardening|guerrilla farming]]’ initiative”<ref name="MNN"><cite>[http://www.mnn.com/your-home/organic-farming-gardening/blogs/overgrown-lot-munching-goats-given-the-boot-in-detroit Overgrown lot-munching goats given the boot in Detroit]</cite>, ''Mother Nature Network'', June 13, 2014</ref><ref name="MF"><cite>[http://modernfarmer.com/2014/06/idyllic-detroit-qa-billionaire-goat-farmer-mark-spitznagel/ The Goats of Detroit]</cite>, ''Modern Farmer'', June 18, 2014</ref> (including from [[Ron Paul]]<ref name="RPC"><cite>[http://www.ronpaulchannel.com/video/detroit-mayor-mike-duggan-halts-urban-farming-project-struggling-neighborhood/ Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan Halts Urban Farming Project in Struggling Neighborhood]</cite>, ''Ron Paul Channel'', June 9, 2014</ref>), as well as the similar use of eco-friendly goats in other metropolitan areas,<ref name="Sierra"/><ref name="FortuneGoat"><cite>[http://fortune.com/2014/06/12/best-cities-for-goat-owning-hedge-fund-managers/ America's best cities for goat-owning hedge fund managers]</cite>, ''Fortune Magazine'', June 12, 2014</ref> [[Mike Duggan|Mayor Duggan]] immediately ordered the goats removed because of the ordinance.<ref name="NYTIDYLL1"/><ref name="NYTIDYLL2"><cite>[http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/06/06/goats-face-eviction-from-their-grazing-lot-in-detroit/ A Deadline for Goats to Get Out of Detroit]</cite>, ''The New York Times'', June 6, 2014</ref><ref name="DFP1"><cite>[http://www.freep.com/article/20140606/NEWS01/306070028/Detroit-goats-brightmoor-farm City of Detroit butting heads with blight-eating Brightmoor goats]</cite>, ''Detroit Free Press'', June 6, 2014</ref> ''The New York Times'' commented that “If this all sounds a little unusual, Mr. Spitznagel has never been one to bend to convention.”<ref name="NYTIDYLL1"/> == Publications == * Paul, R., Spitznagel, M. (2016) [http://time.com/4170969/sen-rand-paul-audit-the-fed/ The Fed Is Crippling America], ''Time'', January 10, 2016 * Spitznagel, M. (2015) [http://www.pionline.com/article/20151222/ONLINE/151229981/revisiting-the-ticking-time-bomb/F Revisiting the ticking time bomb], ''Pensions & Investments'', December 22, 2015 * Paul, R., Spitznagel, M. (2015) [http://www.wsj.com/articles/if-only-the-fed-would-get-out-of-the-way-1442356924 If Only the Fed Would Get Out of the Way], ''The Wall Street Journal'', September 15, 2015 * Paul, R., Spitznagel, M. (2015) [http://reason.com/archives/2015/08/20/the-federal-reserve-is-not-your-friend The Federal Reserve is Not Your Friend], ''Reason.com'', August 20, 2015 * Spitznagel, M. (2015) [http://www.freep.com/story/opinion/contributors/2015/08/12/rand-paul-detroit-plan/31552315/ Loosen restrictions to boost Detroit’s revival], ''Detroit Free Press'', August 13, 2015 * Spitznagel, M., Taleb, N.N. (2015) [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/14/business/dealbook/another-too-big-to-fail-system-in-gmos.html Another ‘Too Big to Fail’ System in G.M.O.s], ''The New York Times'', July 13, 2015 * Spitznagel, M. (2015) [http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/02/13/the-myth-of-black-swan-market-events/ The Myth of Black Swan Market Events], ''The New York Times'', February 13, 2015 * Spitznagel, M., Yarckin, B., Mann, C. (2015) [http://www.pionline.com/article/20150118/ONLINE/150119902/capital-asset-pricing-mistakes Capital asset pricing mistakes: Consistent opportunities in tail hedged equities], ''Pensions & Investments'', January 18, 2015 * Paul, R., Spitznagel, M. (2014) [http://www.voicesofliberty.com/article/americans-must-choose-non-intervention-for-peace-prosperity/ Americans Must Choose Non-Intervention for Peace, Prosperity], ''Voices of Liberty'', August 26, 2014 * Taleb, N.N., Spitznagel, M. (2014) [http://www.nationalreview.com/article/379180/inequality-free-markets-and-crashes-nassim-taleb-mark-spitznagel Inequality, Free Markets, and Crashes], ''National Review'', May 31, 2014 * Spitznagel, M. (2013) ''[https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Dao_of_Capital.html?id=fYdRAAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false The Dao of Capital: Austrian Investing in a Distorted World]''. New York: [[John Wiley & Sons]]. ISBN 978-1-1183-4703-4. * Spitznagel, M. (2013) [http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/04/an-economy-suffocating-american-battle-our-present-vs-future-selves/ An Economy-Suffocating American Battle: Our Present Vs. Future Selves], ''Forbes'', November 4, 2013 * Spitznagel, M. (2013) [http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-perspective/100713-674082-government-intervention-turned-downturn-into-depression.htm Interventionist Policies Cause Of, Not Cure For, Busts], ''Investor’s Business Daily'', October 7, 2013 * Spitznagel, M. (2013) [http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/3251776/How-to-Prevent-a-Market-Crisis.html How to Prevent a Market Crisis], ''Institutional Investor'', September 5, 2013 * Spitznagel, M. (2013) [http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/08/07/zero-rates-take-investors-down-a-dangerous-path/ Zero Rates Take Investors Down A Dangerous Path], ''Forbes'', August 12, 2013 * Spitznagel, M. (2013) [http://www.project-syndicate.org/online-commentary/revitalizing-detroit-through-austrian-economic-principles-by-mark-spitznagel Austrian Detroit?], ''Project Syndicate'', August 6, 2013 * Spitznagel, M. (2013) [http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/01/31/the-role-of-capital-has-politicians-confused/ The Role of Capital Has Politicians Confused], ''Forbes'', January 31, 2013 * Spitznagel, M. (2012) [http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/11/15/our-malinvestment-in-president-obama-will-bring-painful-consequences/ Our Malinvestment In President Obama Will Bring Painful Consequences], ''Forbes'', November 15, 2012 * Spitznagel, M. (2012) [http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/07/29/the-grand-shi-strategy-of-ron-paul/ The Grand Shi Strategy of Ron Paul], ''Forbes'', July 29, 2012 * Spitznagel, M. (2012) [http://www.universa.net/UniversaSpitznagel_research_201205.pdf ''The Austrians and the Swan: Birds of a Different Feather'' (white paper)], May, 2012 * Spitznagel, M. (2012) [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304356604577343430113336486.html How the Fed Favors The 1%], ''The Wall Street Journal'', April 19, 2012 * Spitznagel, M. (2012) [http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/spitznagel2/English Capital Shrugged], ''Project Syndicate'', February 16, 2012 * Spitznagel, M. (2011) [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204903804577082533052728286.html Christmas Trees and the Logic of Growth], ''The Wall Street Journal'', December 23, 2011 * Spitznagel, M. (2011) [http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/another-view-bernanke-ups-the-ante/ Bernanke Ups the Ante], ''The New York Times'', October 4, 2011 * Spitznagel, M., Taleb, N.N. (2011) [http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/taleb1/English The Great Bank Robbery], ''Project Syndicate'', September 2, 2011 * Spitznagel, M. (2011) [http://www.universa.net/UniversaSpitznagel_research_20110613.pdf ''The Dao of Corporate Finance, Q Ratios, and Stock Market Crashes'' (white paper)], June, 2011 * Spitznagel, M. (2011) [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704425804576220983131318962.html All About the Benjamins], ''The Wall Street Journal'', March 30, 2011 * Spitznagel, M. (2010) [http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ_PUB:SB10001424052748704717004575268922083097384.html The Fed and the May 6 'Flash Crash'], ''The Wall Street Journal'', May 28, 2010 * Spitznagel, M. (2009) [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574443600711779692.html The Man Who Predicted the Depression], ''The Wall Street Journal'', November 7, 2009 * Taleb, N.N., Golstein, D.G., and Spitznagel, M. (2009) [http://hbr.harvardbusiness.org/2009/10/the-six-mistakes-executives-make-in-risk-management/ar/1 The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management], ''[[Harvard Business Review]]'', October, 2009 * Taleb, N.N., Spitznagel, M. (2009) [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e02aeba-6fd8-11de-b835-00144feabdc0.html Time to tackle the real evil: too much debt], ''Financial Times'', July 13, 2009 == References == {{reflist|2}} {{Persondata <!-- Metadata: see [[Wikipedia:Persondata]]. --> | NAME = Spitznagel, Mark | ALTERNATIVE NAMES = | SHORT DESCRIPTION = American businessman | DATE OF BIRTH = March 5, 1971 | PLACE OF BIRTH = Ann Arbor, Michigan | DATE OF DEATH = | PLACE OF DEATH = }} {{DEFAULTSORT:Spitznagel, Mark}} [[Category:1971 births]] [[Category:Living people]] [[Category:American classical liberals]] [[Category:American commodities traders]] [[Category:American derivatives traders]] [[Category:American hedge fund managers]] [[Category:American investors]] [[Category:American libertarians]] [[Category:American money managers]] [[Category:American stock traders]] [[Category:Austrian School economists]] [[Category:Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences alumni]] [[Category:Farmers from Michigan]] [[Category:Kalamazoo College alumni]] [[Category:New York University alumni]] [[Category:Stock and commodity market managers]]'