Examine individual changes

'{{More footnotes|date=February 2010}} {{refimprove|date=February 2011}} [[Image:Population pyramid 1 (triangle).PNG|250px|right|thumb|This distribution is named for the frequently pyramidal shape of its graph.]] A '''population pyramid''', also called an '''age structure diagram''', is a graphical illustration that shows the distribution of various age groups in a [[population]] (typically that of a country or region of the world), which forms the shape of a [[pyramid]] when the population is growing. It is also used in Ecology to determine the overall age distribution of a population; an indication of the reproductive capabilities and likelihood of the continuation of a species. It typically consists of two back-to-back bar graphs, with the population plotted on the X-axis and age on the Y-axis, one showing the number of males and one showing females in a particular population in five-year age groups (also called [[Cohort (statistics)|cohorts]]). Males are conventionally shown on the left and females on the right, and they may be measured by raw number or as a [[percent]]age of the total population. Population pyramids are often viewed as the most effective way to graphically depict the age and sex distribution of a population, partly because of the very clear image these pyramids present.<ref>[http://www.health.state.pa.us/hpa/stats/techassist/pyramids.htm Department of Health Home<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> A great deal of information about the population broken down by age and sex can be read from a population pyramid, and this can shed light on the [[Sustainable development|extent of development]] and other aspects of the population. A population pyramid also tells how many people of each age range live in the area. There tends to be more females than males in the older age groups, due to females' longer life expectancy. A helpful analogy to facilitate understanding population pyramids is that just as a builder employs a blueprint for showing a house's structure, demographers and geographers employ population pyramids as a blueprint for showing population dynamics.<ref>[http://www.nationalgeographic.com/xpeditions/lessons/09/g68/pyramids.html Lesson Plans - Population Pyramids and Us<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> ==Types of population pyramid== [[Image:DTM Pyramids.svg|450px|right|thumb|Population pyramids for 4 stages of the [[demographic transition]] model]] While all countries' population pyramids differ, four general types have been identified by the fertility and mortality rates of a country. ;Stable pyramid :A population pyramid showing an unchanging pattern of fertility and mortality. ;Stationary pyramid :A population pyramid typical of countries with low fertility and low mortality, very similar to a constrictive pyramid. ;Expansive pyramid :A population pyramid showing a broad base, indicating a high proportion of children, a rapid rate of population growth, and a low proportion of older people. This wide base indicates a large number of children. A steady upwards narrowing shows that more people die at each higher age band. This type of pyramid indicates a population in which there is a high [[birth rate]], a high [[death rate]] and a short [[life expectancy]]. This is the typical pattern for less economically developed countries, due to little access to and incentive to use [[birth control]], negative environmental factors (for example, lack of clean water) and poor access to health care. ;Constrictive pyramid :A population pyramid showing lower numbers or percentages of younger people. The country will have a greying population which means that people are generally older, as the country has long life expectancy, a low death rate, but also a low birth rate. This pyramid has been occurring more frequently, especially when immigrants are factored out, and is often a typical pattern for a very developed country, a high over-all education and easy access and incentive to use birth control, good health care and few or no negative environmental factors. ==Youth bulge== {{Section OR|date=April 2009}} {{See also|Baby Boom|List of countries by median age}} [[Image:Median age.png|thumb|300px|[[Median]] age by country. A youth bulge is evident for [[Demographics of Africa|Africa]], and to a lesser extent for South and Southeast Asia and Central America.]] [[File:Countriesbyfertilityrate.svg|thumb|300px|A world map showing countries by [[fertility rate]], 2005-2010. {{col-begin}} {{col-break}} {{legend|#AE23AE|7-8 Children}} {{legend|#FF00FF|6-7 Children}} {{legend|#FF0000|5-6 Children}} {{legend|#FF6600|4-5 Children}} {{col-break}} {{legend|#FFFF00|3-4 Children}} {{legend|#00FF00|2-3 Children}} {{legend|#20DFD8|1-2 Children}} {{legend|#35B0E3|0-1 Children}} {{col-end}}]] The expansive case was described as '''youth bulge''' by Gary Fuller (1995). [[Gunnar Heinsohn]] (2003) argues that an excess in especially young adult male population predictably leads to social unrest, [[war]] and [[terrorism]], as the "third and fourth sons" that find no prestigious positions in their existing societies rationalize their impetus to compete by religion or political ideology. Heinsohn claims that most historical periods of social unrest lacking external triggers (such as rapid climatic changes or other catastrophic changes of the environment) and most [[genocide]]s can be readily explained as a result of a built-up youth bulge, including [[first European colonization wave (15th century–19th century)|European colonialism]], 20th-century [[fascism]], rise of [[Communism]] during the [[Cold War]], and ongoing conflicts such as that in [[Darfur conflict|Darfur]] and [[terrorism]]. {{Citation needed|date=April 2009}} This factor has been also used to account for the [[Arab spring]] events.<ref>[[Korotayev]] A. et al.[http://cliodynamics.ru/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=309&Itemid=1 A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia. ''Cliodynamics'' 2/2 (2011): 1-28].</ref> Historical [[economic recession]]s, such as the [[Great Depression]] of the 1930s, are also claimed to be explained in part due to a large youth population who cannot find jobs. One problem with this line of reasoning is that under conditions prevailing before the introduction of modern medicine, death rates were much higher than they are now, and almost all societies had youth bulges even when their population growth rate was negligible. However, they certainly did not experience such youth bulge as prevails today in some parts of the world or as prevailed in twentieth century Germany or in Africa and the Middle East nowadays.{{Or|date=February 2010}} It is not just that most periods of unrest occurred in societies with youth bulges, but that some of the pre-modern periods of any sort existed in societies with such bulges as well. Nevertheless, since the improvement of medicine and its introduction, the element of youth bulge has become far more salient than before. Therefore, perhaps it cannot explain massacres throughout human history, but it can serve as rather plausible theory to explain the terror{{Vague|date=January 2012}}, social unrest, and uprisings in today's society.<ref name="cfr.org">[http://www.cfr.org/society-and-culture/effects-youth-bulge-civil-conflicts/p13093 The Effects of ‘Youth Bulge’ on Civil Conflicts - Council on Foreign Relations<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> Another problem is that it ignores the social consequences of poverty, corruption and mass unemployment among young males in developing countries, where most of the world's current population growth is occurring. The "youth bulge" is not an accurate predictor of social unrest, war and terrorism, because they are the product of far more complicated and interrelated set of factors, of which demographics only plays a part. Yet, even when there are other factors and circumstance to enable mass unrest, a youth bulge is likely to be one of them.<ref name="cfr.org"/> Youth bulge theory represents one of the most recently developed theories of [[war]] and social unrest,<ref name="cfr.org"/> and has become highly influential on U.S. foreign policy as two major U.S. proponents of the theory, political scientists [[Jack Goldstone]] and [[Gary Fuller]],<ref>{{cite book |last=Goldstone |first=Jack A. |title=Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World |location=Berkeley |publisher=University of California Press |year=1991 |isbn=0520067584 }}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last=Fuller |first=Gary |chapter=The Demographic Backdrop to Ethnic Conflict: A Geographic Overview |editor=CIA |title=The Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990s |location=Washington |year=1995 |pages=151–154 |isbn= }}</ref> have acted as consultants to the U.S. government.{{citation needed|date=April 2009}} A large population of adolescents entering the labor force and electorate strains at the seams of the economy and polity, which were designed for smaller populations. This creates unemployment and alienation unless new opportunities are created quickly enough - in which case a 'demographic dividend' accrues because productive workers outweigh young and elderly dependants. Yet the 16-30 age range is associated with risk-taking, especially among males. In general, youth bulges in developing countries are associated with higher unemployment and, as a result, a heightened risk of violence and political instability. <ref> Huntington, Samuel P. 1996. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. New York, NY: Simon and Schuster; Urdal, Henrik. 2006. "A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence." International Studies Quarterly 50:607-29 </ref> For Cincotta and Doces (2011), the transition to more mature age structures is almost a [[sine qua non]] for democratization. <ref> Cincotta, Richard, and John Doces. 2011. "The Age-structural Maturity Thesis: The Youth Bulge’s Influence on the Advent and Stability of Liberal Democracy?" In [http://www.paradigmpublishers.com/books/BookDetail.aspx?productID=280257 Political Demography: identity, conflict and institutions ed. J. A. Goldstone, E. Kaufmann and M. Toft. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Press] </ref> <gallery> Image:Afghanistan population pyramid 2005.png | [[Afghanistan]] shows a classic youth bulge. Image:Angola population pyramid 2005.png | [[Angola]] shows the same, even more pronounced. Image:China population pyramid 2005.png| [[People's Republic of China|China]] had an extreme youth bulge until the 1960s, when it sharply curbed partly as an effect of the [[one-child policy]]. File:Egypt population pyramid 2005.svg|Population pyramid of [[Egypt]] in 2005. Many of those 30 and younger are educated citizens who are experiencing difficulty finding work. File:LibyaPopulation2011.jpg | Nearly half of [[Libya|Libya's]] 2011 population consists of youths under age 20. </gallery> ===The Middle East and North Africa=== {{See|Demographic trap}} The [[Middle East]] and [[North Africa]] are currently experiencing a prominent youth bulge. Structural changes in service provision, especially health care, beginning in the 1960s created the conditions for a population explosion, which has resulted in a population consisting primarily of younger people. It is estimated that around 65% of the regional population is under the age of 30.<ref>[http://www.shababinclusion.org/content/blog/detail/986/ Navtej Dhillon “The Role of the U.S. in the Middle East,” Congressional Briefing (May 2008)]</ref> The Middle East has invested more in education, including religious education, than most other regions such that education is available to most young people.<ref>[http://shababinclusion.org/content/document/detail/623/1 Navtej Dhillon, Tarik Yousef. “Inclusion: Meeting the 100 Million Youth Challenge”]</ref> However, that education has not led to higher levels of employment, and youth unemployment is currently at 25%, the highest of any single region.<ref>[http://www.shababinclusion.org/section/topics/employment Middle East Youth Initiative – Employment]</ref> Of this 25%, over half are first time entrants into the job market.<ref>[http://shababinclusion.org/content/document/detail/623/1 Navtej Dhillon, Tarik Yousef. “Inclusion: Meeting the 100 Million Youth Challenge” (2007)]</ref> The youth bulge in the Middle East and North Africa has been favorably compared to that of East Asia, which harnessed this human capital and saw huge economic growth in recent decades.<ref>{{cite web|title=Youth – An Undervalued Asset: Towards a New Agenda in the Middle East and North Africa, Progress, Challenges and Way Forward,” Middle East and North Africa Region Human Development Department (MNSHD), The World Bank, 2007|url=http://www.childmigration.net/files/433720SR0WHITE11PUBLIC10YPN1English.pdf|accessdate= 27 October 2011}}</ref> The youth bulge has been referred to by the [[Middle East Youth Initiative]] as a [[demographic gift]], which, if engaged, could fuel regional economic growth and development.<ref>{{cite web|title=Middle East Youth Initiative: About: Why Shabab?|url=http://www.shababinclusion.org/section/about/why_shabab|accessdate=27 October 2011}}</ref> ====Egypt's socio-economic challenges==== [[File:Flickr - Daveness 98 - Cityscape in Cairo.jpg|thumb|A poor neighbourhood in Cairo.]]{{Citation needed|date=December 2011}} The population of [[Egypt]] grew from 30,083,419 in 1966<ref name="ReferenceOxford Atlas">The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0198941072</ref> to roughly 79,000,000 by 2008.<ref name="popclock">{{cite web|url=http://www.msrintranet.capmas.gov.eg/pls/fdl/tst12e?action=&lname=|title=Central Agency for Population Mobilisation and Statistics&nbsp;— Population Clock (July 2008)|publisher=Msrintranet.capmas.gov.eg|date=|accessdate=25 August 2010}}</ref> The vast majority of Egyptians live in the limited spaces near the banks of the [[Nile]] River, in an area of about {{convert|40000|km2|sp=us}}, where the only [[arable land]] is found and competing with the need of human habitations. In late 2010, around 40 percent of Egypt's population of just under 80&nbsp;million lived on the fiscal income equivalent of roughly US$2 per day with a large part of the population relying on subsidised goods.<ref name="AFP-egyptbraces">{{cite web|url=http://www.france24.com/en/20110125-egypt-braces-nationwide-protests|title=Egypt braces for nationwide protests|author=AFP|publisher=France24|date=25 January 2011|accessdate=29 January 2011}}</ref> [[File:Day of Anger marchers in street.jpg|thumb|right|The "Day of Revolt" on 25 January, 2011 in Cairo.]] According to the [[Peterson Institute for International Economics]] and other proponets of demographic structural approach ([[cliodynamics]]), the basic problem Egypt has is unemployment driven by a demographic [[youth bulge]]: with the number of new people entering the job force at about 4% a year, unemployment in Egypt is almost 10 times as high for [[college graduate]]s as it is for people who have gone through elementary school, particularly educated urban youth, who are precisely those people that were seen out in the streets during [[2011 Egyptian revolution]].<ref>[[Korotayev|Korotayev A.]], Zinkina J. [http://cliodynamics.ru/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=276&Itemid=70 Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis. ''Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar'' 13 (2011): 139-169.] </ref> <ref>{{cite web|url=http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/02/01/pm-the-long-term-challenges-egypt-must-overcome/|title=The long-term economic challenges Egypt must overcome|work=[[Marketplace (radio program)|Marketplace]]|date=1 February 2011|accessdate=1 February 2011}}</ref> This is in stark contrast to others like [[Kuwait]] and [[Saudi Arabia]], who are actively trying to engage and utilize their youth bulge, or [[Algeria]] and [[Morocco]], which have tried to mitigate the worst effects of a disenfanchised and disillusioned [[youth]]. ==Uses of population pyramids== {{main|Dependency ratio|Generational accounting}} Population pyramids can be used to find the number of economic dependents being supported in a particular population. Economic dependents are defined as those under 15 (children who are in full time education and therefore unable to work) and those over 65 (those who have the option of being retired). In some less developed countries children start work well before the age of 15, and in some developed countries it is common to not start work until 30 (like in the North European countries), and people may work beyond the age of 65, or retire early. Therefore, the definition provides an approximation. In many countries, the government plans the economy in such a way that the working population can support these dependents. This number can be further used to calculate the dependency ratio in that population. Population pyramids can be used to observe the natural increase, birth, and death rate. ==See also== *[[Age class structure]] *[[Baby boom]] *[[Demographic transition]] *[[Gender imbalance]] *[[Population]] *[[Population growth]] *[[Political demography]] *[[Demographic analysis]] *[[Middle East Youth Initiative]] *[[Waithood]] *[[List of countries by median age]] *[[Overpopulation]] ==References== {{reflist}} ==Further reading== * Gary Fuller, "The Youth Crisis in Middle Eastern Society" (2004) [http://www.strategicinspirations.com/ispu/go/images/F000180/Graham+Fuller+paper.pdf download] * Gary Fuller, ''The Demographic Backdrop to Ethnic Conflict: A Geographic Overview'', was born in 1989 and was produced by Edward Gewin: The Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990s, Washington: CIA (RTT 95-10039, October), 151-154. *{{cite book |last=Heinsohn |first=Gunnar |year=2003 |title=Söhne und Weltmacht : Terror im Aufstieg und Fall der Nationen |location=Zürich |publisher=[[Orell Füssli]] |isbn=3280060087 }} {{de icon}} * [http://www.brookings.edu/speeches/2008/0522_middle_east_youth_dhillon.aspx Navtej Dhillon, "Middle East Youth Bulge: Challenge or Opportunity?" (2008) The Brookings Institution] * [http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2008/0107_youth/20080107_youth.pdf "From Oil Boom to Youth Boon: Tapping the Middle East Demographic Gift" (2008) The Brookings Institution] * [http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2003/06middleeast_fuller/fuller20030601.pdf Graham Fuller, "The Youth Factor: The New Demographics of the Middle East and the Implications for U.S. Policy" (2003) The Brookings Institution] * [http://www.populationaction.org/resources/publications/securitydemographic/ The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict after the Cold War] * [http://www.zmag.org/Sustainers/Content/2003-03/14hendrixson.cfm The "Youth Bulge"] (zmag.org) * [http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Reports/The_Shape_of_Things_to_Come/Summary.shtml The Shape of Things to Come, Why Age Structure Matters To A Safer, More Equitable World] * [http://www.paradigmpublishers.com/books/BookDetail.aspx?productID=280257 Political Demography: identity, conflict and institutions ed. J. A. Goldstone, E. Kaufmann and M. Toft. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Press] ==External links== {{Commons category|Population pyramids}} * [http://www.census.gov/population/international/links/stat_int.html U.S. Census Bureau, International Statistical Agencies] * [http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php U.S. Census Bureau, International Database (IDB)] * [http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natchart.html U.S. Census Bureau, US National Population Projections, Population Pyramids] * [http://populationpyramid.net United Nations Data Set Population pyramids from 1950 to 2050] * [http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyone.htm Canadian site with animations for different types of pyramids] * [http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/home/population%20pyramid%20preview Australian animated population pyramids, Australian Bureau of Statistics] * [http://www.insee.fr/fr/ppp/bases-de-donnees/irweb/projpop0760/dd/pyramide/pyramide.htm Interactive population pyramids of metropolitan France 1901-2060 (INSEE)] * [http://www.china-profile.com/data/ani_ceu_pop.htm# China, Europe, USA: Population by Age and Sex, 1950-2050]. Moving Age Pyramids. * [http://charts.jorgecamoes.com/how-to-create-an-excel-dashboard/ US Census Bureau, Population age structure in an interactive Excel dashboard] * [http://charts.jorgecamoes.com/animation-and-demographic-information-visualization/ Animation: a different approach to population pyramids using Excel] * [http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/sfew/vpost?id=1579036 A discussion on population pyramids as a data visualization tool] {{Population}} {{DEFAULTSORT:Population Pyramid}} [[Category:Population]] [[Category:Demography]] [[Category:Demographic economics]] [[Category:Aging]] [[Category:Demographics]] [[Category:Statistical charts and diagrams]] [[ca:Piràmide de població]] [[cs:Věková pyramida]] [[da:Befolkningspyramide]] [[de:Altersstruktur]] [[et:Rahvastikupüramiid]] [[el:Πυραμίδα ηλικιών]] [[es:Pirámide de población]] [[eu:Biztanleria-piramide]] [[fa:هرم جمعیت]] [[fr:Pyramide des âges]] [[gl:Pirámide de poboación]] [[id:Piramida penduduk]] [[it:Piramide delle età]] [[he:פירמידת גילאים]] [[nl:Bevolkingspiramide]] [[ja:人口ピラミッド]] [[no:Befolkningspyramide]] [[pl:Struktura płci i wieku]] [[pt:Pirâmide etária]] [[ru:Возрастно-половая пирамида]] [[simple:Population pyramid]] [[fi:Väestöpyramidi]] [[sv:Befolkningspyramid]] [[tr:Yaş piramidi]] [[zh:人口金字塔]] [[ar: الهرم السكاني]]'