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'{{EngvarB|date=September 2013}} {{Use dmy dates|date=September 2013}} {{Refimprove|date=August 2010}} {{coord|51.41956|N|0.95077|W|region:GB_type:landmark_source:dewiki|display=title}} {{Infobox Organization |name = European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts |image = Ecmwf.png |caption = |map = |mcaption = |headquarters = [[Reading, Berkshire|Reading]], United Kingdom |membership = |language = |leader_title = |leader_name = |leader_title2 = |leader_name2 = |formation = 1975 |website = http://www.ecmwf.int/ }} The '''European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts''', '''ECMWF''', is an independent [[intergovernmental organisation]] supported by most of the nations of Europe and is based at [[Shinfield|Shinfield Park]], [[Reading, Berkshire|Reading]], [[United Kingdom]]. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data.<ref name="who-we-are">{{cite web |url=http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are |title=Who we are |publisher=ECMWF |accessdate=2016-01-01}}</ref> Because of Brexit, ECMWF will relocate to [[Bologna]] in the next years.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.italy24.ilsole24ore.com/art/business-and-economy/2017-03-01/bologna-meteo-182247.php?uuid=AEQiA5f|title=Bologna to host the data center of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts|website=Bologna to host the data center of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts|language=en|access-date=2017-03-02}}</ref> == Background == ECMWF was established in 1975, in recognition of the need to pool the scientific and technical resources of Europe's meteorological services and institutions for the production of weather forecasts for medium-range timescales (up to approximately two weeks) and of the economic and social benefits expected from it. [[Image:European forecasting.svg|thumb|250px|{{legend|#0076a5|members as of 2015}} {{legend|#73c2fb|co-operation agreement}}]] It comprises 22 European countries: * the eighteen founding states of 1975: [[Austria]], [[Belgium]], [[Croatia]], [[Denmark]], [[Finland]], [[France]], [[Germany]], [[Greece]], [[Republic of Ireland]], [[Italy]], [[Luxembourg]], [[Netherlands]], [[Norway]], [[Portugal]], [[Spain]], [[Sweden]], [[Switzerland]], [[Turkey]], [[United Kingdom]]. * four states that joined since 2010: [[Iceland]] (April 2011),<ref>[http://www.wmo.int/pages/publications/meteoworld/archive/april11/regional_en.html#iceland Iceland is the first new Member State under the amended Convention. The original Convention restricted membership to the founding Member States, but was amended in June 2010.]</ref> [[Slovenia]] (December 2012),<ref name="slovenia joins">{{cite web|title=Slovenia becomes ECMWF's 20th Member State|url=http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/cms/get/ecmwfnews/1354197287752|work=ecmwf.int|publisher=ECMWF|accessdate=8 December 2012}}</ref> [[Serbia]] (January 2015)<ref>{{cite web|title=Serbia becomes ECMWF’s 21st Member State|url=http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2015/serbia-becomes-ecmwf%E2%80%99s-21st-member-state}}</ref> and [[Croatia]] (January 2016).<ref>http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2016/croatian-flag-raised-ecmwf</ref> It also has co-operation agreements with other states: [[Bulgaria]], [[Czech Republic]], [[Estonia]], [[Hungary]], [[Israel]], [[Latvia]], [[Lithuania]], [[Republic of Macedonia|Macedonia]], [[Montenegro]], [[Morocco]], [[Romania]] and [[Slovakia]]. The Centre employs about 280 staff, mostly appointed from across the member states and co-operating states.<ref name="who-we-are" /> == Objectives == ECMWF aims to provide accurate medium-range global weather forecasts out to 15 days and seasonal forecasts out to 12 months.<ref>{{cite web|title=ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts|url=http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/appmanager/bvbw/dwdwwwDesktop;jsessionid=KRKYTbsFZ6CF2q1xbdRSJHGrNhM6SZGvT2HvcvJG5SJ81343ZMRn!-305518225!18401122?_nfpb=true&_windowLabel=dwdwww_main_book&T17401110631149743806488gsbDocumentPath=Navigation%2FOeffentlichkeit%2FZusammenarbeit%2FInternational%2FEZMW__node.html%3F__nnn%3Dtrue&switchLang=en&_pageLabel=dwdwww_zusammenarbeit|publisher=Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrasctructure|accessdate=29 April 2014|author=Deutscher Wetterdienst|location=Berlin, Germany|quote=Established in 1975, ECMWF is renowned worldwide for providing the most accurate medium-range global weather forecasts up to 10 days ahead, monthly forecasts and seasonal outlooks to six months ahead.}}</ref> Its products are provided to the national weather services of its member states and co-operating states as a complement to their national short-range and climatological activities, and those national states use ECMWF's products for their own national duties, in particular to give early warning of potentially damaging severe weather. ECMWF's core mission is to: *produce numerical weather forecasts and monitor the Earth-system; *carry out scientific and technical research to improve forecast skill; *maintain an archive of meteorological data. To deliver this core mission, the Centre provides: *twice-daily global numerical weather forecasts; *air quality analysis; *atmospheric composition monitoring; *climate monitoring; *ocean circulation analysis; *hydrological prediction. The Centre develops and operates global [[atmospheric model]]s and [[data assimilation]] systems for the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Earth's atmosphere and for interacting parts of the Earth-system. It uses [[numerical weather prediction]] methods to prepare forecasts and their initial conditions, and it contributes to monitoring the relevant parts of the Earth system. == Work and projects == === Forecasting === [[Numerical weather prediction]] (NWP) requires input of meteorological data, collected by satellites and [[earth observation]] systems such as automatic and manned stations, aircraft, ships and [[weather balloon]]s. [[data assimilation|Assimilation of this data]] is used to produce an initial state of a computer model of the atmosphere, from which an [[atmospheric model]] is used to forecast the weather. These forecasts are typically: * medium-range forecasts, predicting the weather up to 15 days ahead * monthly forecasts, predicting the weather on a weekly basis 30 days ahead * seasonal forecasts up to 12 months ahead. Over the past three decades ECMWF's wide-ranging programme of research has played a major role in developing such assimilation and modelling systems. This improves the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasting by about a day per decade, so that a seven-day forecast now (2015) is as accurate as a three-day forecast was four decades ago (1975).<ref>{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/1520769/the-forecast-for-weather-technology |title=The Forecast For Weather Technology |publisher=Sky News |date=2015-07-17 |accessdate=2016-01-01}}</ref> === Monthly and seasonal forecasts === ECMWF's monthly and seasonal forecasts provide early predictions of events such as [[heat wave]]s, cold spells and droughts, as well as their impacts on sectors such as agriculture, energy and health. Since ECMWF runs a wave model, there are also predictions of coastal waves and storm surges in European waters which can be used to provide warnings. === Early warning of severe weather events === Forecasts of severe weather events allow appropriate mitigating action to be taken and contingency plans to be put into place by the authorities and the public. The increased time gained by issuing accurate warnings can save lives, for instance by evacuating people from a [[storm surge]] area. Authorities and businesses can plan to maintain services around threats such as high winds, floods or snow. In October 2012 the ECMWF model suggested seven days in advance that [[Hurricane Sandy]] was likely to make landfall on the [[East Coast of the United States]].<ref>{{cite web |title=How Math helped forecast Hurricane Sandy |url=http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-math-helped-forecast-superstorm-sandy |last1=Roulstone |first1=Ian |last2=Norbury |first2=John |publisher=Scientific American |date=25 July 2013 |accessdate=9 August 2013}}</ref> It also predicted the intensity and track of the [[November 2012 nor'easter]], which impacted the east coast a week after Sandy.{{Citation needed|date=August 2013}} ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) was developed as a tool to identify where the EPS forecast distribution differs substantially from that of the model climate{{clarify|date=January 2016}}. It contains information regarding variability of weather parameters, in location and time and can highlight an abnormality of a weather situation without having to define specific space- and time-dependent thresholds. === Satellite data === {{peacock|section|date=February 2015}} ECMWF, through its partnerships with EUMETSAT, ESA, the EU and the European Science community has established a leading position for Europe in the exploitation of satellite data for operational numerical weather prediction, and for operational seasonal forecasting with coupled atmosphere-ocean-land models. The increasing amount of satellite data and the development of more sophisticated ways of extraction information from that data have made a major contribution to improving the accuracy and utility of NWP forecasts.{{Citation needed|date=October 2011}} ECMWF continuously endeavours to improve the use of satellite observations for NWP. === Reanalysis === {{peacock|section|date=February 2015}} ECMWF makes significant contributions to support research on climate variability, pioneering an approach known as [[meteorological reanalysis|reanalysis]]. This involves feeding weather observations collected over decades into a NWP system to recreate past atmospheric, sea- and land-surface conditions over specific time periods to obtain a clearer picture of how the climate has changed. Reanalysis provides a four-dimensional picture of the atmosphere and effectively allows monitoring of the variability and change of global climate, thereby contributing also to the understanding and attribution of climate change. To date, and with support from Europe's National Meteorological Services and the European Commission, ECMWF has conducted two major reanalyses of the global atmosphere: the first [[ECMWF re-analysis]] (ERA-15) project generated reanalyses from December 1978 to February 1994; the [[ERA-40]] project generated reanalyses from September 1957 to August 2002. === Operational forecast model === {{main article|Integrated Forecast System}} ECMWF's operational forecasts are produced from its "[[Integrated Forecast System]]" (sometimes informally known in the USA as the "European model") which is run every twelve hours and forecasts out to ten days. It includes both in a "deterministic forecast" mode and as an [[ensemble forecasting|ensemble]]. The deterministic forecast is a single model run that is relatively high in both resolution but also in computational expense. The ensemble is relatively low (about half that of the deterministic) in resolution and so in computational expense, so less accurate. But it is run 51 times in parallel, from slightly different initial conditions to give a spread of likelihood over the range of the forecast.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/modelling-and-prediction |title=Modelling and Prediction |publisher=ECMWF |accessdate=2016-01-02}}</ref> ==See also== *[[EUMETNET]] *[[European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites|EUMETSAT]] ==References== {{Reflist}} ==Further reading== *{{cite book| title=Medium-Range Weather Prediction – the European Approach | last=Woods | first=Austin | publisher=Springer | year=2006 | isbn=978-0-387-26928-3}} ==External links== *[http://www.ecmwf.int Official Website] *[http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/ERA-15/index.html ERA-15 reanalysis] *[http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/Project/index.html ERA-40 reanalysis] *[http://www.top500.org/site/47752 ECMWF on TOP500.org] {{National Meteorological Organisations}} {{Major Scientific Research Facilities based in the United Kingdom}} {{Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Climate Models}} {{DEFAULTSORT:European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts}} [[Category:1975 establishments in the United Kingdom]] [[Category:Climate of Europe]] [[Category:Climate of the United Kingdom]] [[Category:European research networks]] [[Category:Government agencies established in 1975]] [[Category:Governmental meteorological agencies in Europe]] [[Category:Meteorological institutions and stations]] [[Category:Organisations based in Reading, Berkshire]] [[Category:Research institutes established in 1975]] [[Category:Research institutes in Berkshire]] [[Category:Wokingham Borough]]'