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'{{Short description|European intergovernmental weather computation organisation based in the UK}} {{Use British English|date=September 2013}} {{Use dmy dates|date=December 2020}} {{More citations needed|date=August 2010}} {{Infobox organization/Wikidata | fetchwikidata=ALL|director=[[Florence Rabier]]}} The '''European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts''' ('''ECMWF''') is an independent [[intergovernmental organisation]] supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: [[Shinfield|Shinfield Park]], [[Reading, Berkshire|Reading]], [[United Kingdom]]; [[Bologna]], Italy; and [[Bonn]], Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data.<ref name="who-we-are">{{cite web |url=http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are |title=Who we are |date=28 November 2013 |publisher=ECMWF |access-date=2016-01-01}}</ref> == History == [[File:European forecasting.svg|thumb|250px|{{legend|#0A4E8D|members as of 2015}} {{legend|#4A8ECC|co-operation agreement}}]] ECMWF was established in 1975, in recognition of the need to pool the scientific and technical resources of Europe's meteorological services and institutions for the production of weather forecasts for medium-range timescales (up to approximately two weeks) and of the economic and social benefits expected from it. The Centre employs about 350 staff, mostly appointed from across the member states and co-operating states.<ref name="who-we-are" /> In 2017, the centre's member states accepted an offer from the Italian Government to move ECMWF's data centre to [[Bologna]], Italy.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/press-kit-bologna-host-ecmwfs-new-data-centre|title=Press kit: Bologna to host ECMWF's new data centre|date=3 March 2017}}</ref> The new site, a former tobacco factory, would be redesigned by the architecture firm [[Gerkan, Marg and Partners|gmp]]. During 2020, the Centre arranged to move its Copernicus operations away from Reading and into European Union territory.<ref name="bloomberg">{{cite web|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-30/france-applies-to-host-top-weather-forecaster-now-based-in-u-k|title=France Applies to Host Top Weather Forecaster Now Based in U.K. |publisher=Bloomberg |date=30 May 2020}}</ref> Following bids from Toulouse,<ref name="bloomberg" /> Italy,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.regioni.it/dalleregioni/2020/05/20/emilia-romagna-tecnopolo-di-bologna-il-governo-autorizza-la-spesa-di-40-milioni-nel-prossimo-triennio-di-cui-10-milioni-nel-2020-612865/ |title=Tecnopolo di Bologna. Il Governo autorizza la spesa di 40 milioni nel prossimo triennio, di cui 10 milioni nel 2020. |publisher=CONFERENZA DELLE REGIONI E DELLE PROVINCE AUTONOME |date=20 May 2020 |access-date=18 June 2020}}</ref> Austria,<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.diepresse.com/5816210/regierung-will-klimawandel-uberwachungsdienst-nach-osterreich-holen |title=Regierung will Klimawandel-Überwachungsdienst nach Österreich holen |publisher=Die Presse |date=20 May 2020 |access-date=18 June 2020}}</ref> Germany,<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.tag24.de/koeln/bonn-will-europaeisches-wetter-zentrum-werden-brexit-1547936 |title=SO WILL BONN EUROPÄISCHES WETTER-ZENTRUM WERDEN! |publisher=TAG24 |date=16 June 2020 |access-date=18 June 2020}}</ref> Spain<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.europapress.es/sociedad/noticia-espana-postulara-acoger-sede-centro-europeo-predicciones-meteorologicas-plazo-medio-20200529135548.html |title=España postulará a Barcelona como sede del Centro Europeo de Predicciones Meteorológicas a Plazo Medio |publisher=europa press |date=29 May 2020 |access-date=18 June 2020}}</ref> and Ireland,<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2020/0922/1166840-weather-brexit/ |title=Govt to bid for relocation of EU forecaster from UK to Ireland. |publisher=Radió Telefis Éireann |date=23 September 2020 |access-date=24 September 2020}}</ref> eventually [[Bonn]] (Germany) was chosen.<ref name="bonnde">{{cite web |url=https://www.bonn.de/microsite/en/press-releases/dezember-2020/european-weather-authority-relocates-to-bonn.php |title="European weather authority relocates to Bonn" |publisher=City of Bonn |date=9 December 2020 |access-date=9 December 2020}}</ref> The move has been directly attributed to [[Brexit]].<ref name="bonnde" /><ref name=":0">{{cite web |url=https://www.en24.news/2020/05/european-center-for-weather-forecasting-france-selects-toulouse-candidate.html |title=European Center for Weather Forecasting: France selects Toulouse candidate |publisher=en24 news |date=30 May 2020 |access-date=1 June 2020}}</ref> == Objectives == ECMWF aims to provide accurate medium-range global weather forecasts out to 15 days and seasonal forecasts out to 12 months.<ref>{{cite web|title=ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts|url=http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/appmanager/bvbw/dwdwwwDesktop;jsessionid=KRKYTbsFZ6CF2q1xbdRSJHGrNhM6SZGvT2HvcvJG5SJ81343ZMRn!-305518225!18401122?_nfpb=true&_windowLabel=dwdwww_main_book&T17401110631149743806488gsbDocumentPath=Navigation%2FOeffentlichkeit%2FZusammenarbeit%2FInternational%2FEZMW__node.html%3F__nnn%3Dtrue&switchLang=en&_pageLabel=dwdwww_zusammenarbeit|publisher=Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure|access-date=29 April 2014|author=Deutscher Wetterdienst|location=Berlin, Germany|quote=Established in 1975, ECMWF is renowned worldwide for providing the most accurate medium-range global weather forecasts up to 10 days ahead, monthly forecasts and seasonal outlooks to six months ahead.}}</ref> Its products are provided to the national weather services of its member states and co-operating states as a complement to their national short-range and climatological activities, and those national states use ECMWF's products for their own national duties, in particular to give early warning of potentially damaging severe weather. ECMWF's core mission is to:<ref>{{Citation |last=ECMWF |title=What we do |url=https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/what-we-do |access-date=2019-06-11|date=30 December 2013 }}</ref> * Produce numerical weather forecasts and monitor planetary systems that influence weather * Carry out scientific and technical research to improve forecast skill * Maintain an archive of meteorological data To deliver this core mission, the Centre provides: * Twice-daily global numerical weather forecasts * Air quality analysis * Atmospheric composition monitoring * Climate monitoring * Ocean circulation analysis * Hydrological prediction The Centre develops and operates global [[atmospheric model]]s and [[data assimilation]] systems for the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Earth's atmosphere and for interacting parts of the Earth-system. It uses [[numerical weather prediction]] methods to prepare forecasts and their initial conditions, and it contributes to monitoring the relevant parts of the Earth system. == Work and projects == === Forecasting === [[Numerical weather prediction]] (NWP) requires input of meteorological data, collected by satellites and [[earth observation]] systems such as [[automatic weather station|automatic]] and crewed [[weather station]]s, aircraft, ships and [[weather balloon]]s. [[data assimilation|Assimilation of this data]] is used to produce an initial state of a computer model of the atmosphere, from which an [[atmospheric model]] is used to forecast the weather. These forecasts are typically: * medium-range forecasts, predicting the weather up to 15 days ahead * monthly forecasts, predicting the weather on a weekly basis 30 days ahead * seasonal forecasts up to 12 months ahead. Over the past three decades ECMWF's wide-ranging programme of research has played a major role in developing such assimilation and modelling systems. This improves the accuracy and reliability of [[weather forecasting]] by about a day per decade, so that a seven-day forecast now (2015) is as accurate as a three-day forecast was four decades ago (1975).<ref>{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/1520769/the-forecast-for-weather-technology |title=The Forecast For Weather Technology |publisher=Sky News |date=2015-07-17 |access-date=2016-01-01}}</ref> === Monthly and seasonal forecasts === ECMWF's monthly and seasonal forecasts provide early predictions of events such as [[heat wave]]s, cold spells and droughts, as well as their impacts on sectors such as agriculture, energy and health. Since ECMWF runs a wave model, there are also predictions of coastal waves and storm surges in European waters which can be used to provide warnings. === Early warning of severe weather events === Forecasts of severe weather events allow appropriate mitigating action to be taken and contingency plans to be put into place by the authorities and the public. The increased time gained by issuing accurate warnings can save lives, for instance by evacuating people from a [[storm surge]] area. Authorities and businesses can plan to maintain services around threats such as high winds, floods or snow. In October 2012 the ECMWF model suggested seven days in advance that [[Hurricane Sandy]] was likely to make landfall on the [[East Coast of the United States]].<ref>{{cite magazine |title=How Math helped forecast Hurricane Sandy |url=http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-math-helped-forecast-superstorm-sandy |last1=Roulstone |first1=Ian |last2=Norbury |first2=John |magazine=Scientific American |date=25 July 2013 |access-date=9 August 2013}}</ref> It also predicted the intensity and track of the [[November 2012 nor'easter]], which impacted the east coast a week after Sandy.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/moderatestrength-noreaster-may-hit-sandydevastated-areas-wednesday|title=Moderate-strength Nor'easter may hit Sandy-devastated areas Wednesday {{!}} Category 6™|website=www.wunderground.com|access-date=2017-05-01}}</ref> ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) was developed as a tool to identify where the EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) forecast distribution differs substantially from that of the model climate{{clarify|date=January 2016}}. It contains information regarding variability of weather parameters, in location and time and can highlight an abnormality of a weather situation without having to define specific space- and time-dependent thresholds. === Satellite data === ECMWF, through its partnerships with EUMETSAT, ESA, the EU and others, exploits satellite data for operational numerical weather prediction and operational seasonal forecasting with coupled atmosphere–ocean–land models. The increasing amount of satellite data and the development of more sophisticated ways of extracting information from that data have made a major contribution to improving the accuracy and utility of NWP forecasts.{{Citation needed|date=October 2011}} ECMWF continuously endeavours to improve the use of satellite observations for NWP. === Reanalysis === {{main article|ECMWF re-analysis}} ECMWF supports research on climate variability using an approach known as [[meteorological reanalysis|reanalysis]]. This involves feeding weather observations collected over decades into a NWP system to recreate past atmospheric, sea- and land-surface conditions over specific time periods to obtain a clearer picture of how the climate has changed. Reanalysis provides a four-dimensional picture of the atmosphere and effectively allows monitoring of the variability and change of global climate, thereby contributing also to the understanding and attribution of climate change. To date, and with support from Europe's National Meteorological Services and the European Commission, ECMWF has conducted several major reanalyses of the global atmosphere: the first [[ECMWF re-analysis]] (ERA-15) project generated reanalyses from December 1978 to February 1994; the [[ERA-40]] project generated reanalyses from September 1957 to August 2002. The ERA-Interim reanalysis<ref>{{Cite journal |doi = 10.1002/qj.828|title = The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system|journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society|volume = 137|issue = 656|pages = 553–597|year = 2011|last1 = Dee|first1 = D. P.|last2 = Uppala|first2 = S. M.|last3 = Simmons|first3 = A. J.|last4 = Berrisford|first4 = P.|last5 = Poli|first5 = P.|last6 = Kobayashi|first6 = S.|last7 = Andrae|first7 = U.|last8 = Balmaseda|first8 = M. A.|last9 = Balsamo|first9 = G.|last10 = Bauer|first10 = P.|last11 = Bechtold|first11 = P.|last12 = Beljaars|first12 = A. C. M.|last13 = Van De Berg|first13 = L.|last14 = Bidlot|first14 = J.|last15 = Bormann|first15 = N.|last16 = Delsol|first16 = C.|last17 = Dragani|first17 = R.|last18 = Fuentes|first18 = M.|last19 = Geer|first19 = A. J.|last20 = Haimberger|first20 = L.|last21 = Healy|first21 = S. B.|last22 = Hersbach|first22 = H.|last23 = Hólm|first23 = E. V.|last24 = Isaksen|first24 = L.|last25 = Kållberg|first25 = P.|last26 = Köhler|first26 = M.|last27 = Matricardi|first27 = M.|last28 = McNally|first28 = A. P.|last29 = Monge-Sanz|first29 = B. M.|last30 = Morcrette|first30 = J.-J.|display-authors = 5|bibcode = 2011QJRMS.137..553D|hdl = 20.500.11824/1106|hdl-access = free}}</ref> covered the period from 1979 onwards. A reanalysis product (ERA5)<ref>{{cite web |url = https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803 |authors = Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J. |display-authors=etal |title=The ERA5 global reanalysis |journal=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society | year=2020}}</ref> with higher spatial resolution (31&nbsp;km) was released by ECMWF in 2019 as part of the [[Copernicus Climate Change Service]].<ref>{{Cite web | url=https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2019/new-era5-dataset-provides-weather-and-climate-details-back-1979 | title=New ERA5 dataset provides weather and climate details back to 1979| date=17 January 2019}}</ref> === Operational forecast model === {{main article|Integrated Forecast System}} ECMWF's operational forecasts are produced from its "[[Integrated Forecast System]]" (sometimes informally known in the United States as the "European model") which is run every twelve hours and forecasts out to ten days. It includes both a "deterministic forecast" mode and an [[ensemble forecasting|ensemble]]. The deterministic forecast is a single model run that is relatively high in resolution as well as in computational expense. The ensemble is relatively low (about half that of the deterministic) in resolution (and in computational expense), so less accurate. But it is run 51 times in parallel, from slightly different initial conditions to give a spread of likelihood over the range of the forecast.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/modelling-and-prediction |title=Modelling and Prediction |publisher=ECMWF |access-date=2016-01-02|date=29 November 2013 }}</ref> As of 2021, the ECMWF's weather model is generally considered to be the most accurate weather forecasting model.<ref name="close the gap">{{cite web|url=https://www.aerisweather.com/blog/2021/04/18/will-a-new-gfs-weather-model-upgrade-close-the-gap-with-the-european-model/|title=Will a New GFS Weather Model Upgrade Close the Gap with The European Model?|author=Paul Douglas|publisher=AerisWeather|date=18 April 2021|accessdate=14 September 2021}}</ref> == Copernicus == The centre currently serves as the Entrusted Entity responsible for delivery of two of the Services of the EU's [[Copernicus Programme]]. The two services are the [[Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service]] ('''CAMS''')<ref name="copernicus-atmosphere">{{cite web |url=https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/what-we-do/environmental-services/copernicus-atmosphere-monitoring-service |title=Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service |date=11 November 2014 |publisher=ECMWF |access-date=2019-10-23}}</ref> and the [[Copernicus Climate Change Service]] ('''C3S''').<ref name="copernicus-climate">{{cite web |url=https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/what-we-do/environmental-services/copernicus-climate-change-service |title=Copernicus Climate Change Service |date=11 November 2014 |publisher=ECMWF |access-date=2019-10-23}}</ref> The Centre arranged to move its Copernicus operations away from Reading and into [[Bonn]] (Germany).<ref name="bloomberg" /><ref name="bonnde" /> The move has been directly attributed to [[Brexit]].<ref name="bonnde" /><ref name=":0" /> == Member and co-operating states == ECMWF comprises 23 European countries: * the eighteen founding states of 1975: [[Austria]], [[Belgium]], [[Denmark]], [[Finland]], [[France]], [[Germany]], [[Greece]], [[Republic of Ireland]], [[Italy]], [[Luxembourg]], [[Netherlands]], [[Norway]], [[Portugal]], [[Spain]], [[Sweden]], [[Switzerland]], [[Türkiye]], [[United Kingdom]]. * five states that joined since 2010: [[Iceland]] (April 2011),<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.wmo.int/pages/publications/meteoworld/archive/april11/regional_en.html#iceland|title=MeteoWorld|date=22 September 2015}}</ref> [[Slovenia]] (December 2012),<ref name="slovenia joins">{{cite web|title=Slovenia becomes ECMWF's 20th Member State|url=http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/cms/get/ecmwfnews/1354197287752|work=ecmwf.int|publisher=ECMWF|access-date=8 December 2012|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130903194153/http://ecmwf.int/publications/cms/get/ecmwfnews/1354197287752|archive-date=3 September 2013}}</ref> [[Serbia]] (January 2015),<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2015/serbia-becomes-ecmwfs-21st-member-state|title=Serbia becomes ECMWF’s 21st Member State|first=Joanne|last=Jeppesen|date=5 January 2015|website=ECMWF}}</ref> [[Croatia]] (January 2016),<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2015/croatia-becomes-ecmwf%27s-22nd-member-stateF|first=Joanne|last=Jeppesen|title=News|date=1 July 2016|website=ECMWF}}</ref> [[Estonia]] (December 2020)<ref>{{cite web|title=ECMWF welcomes Estonia as 23rd Member State|url=https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/ecmwf-welcomes-estonia-23rd-member-state|date=1 December 2020}}</ref> It also has co-operation agreements with other states: [[Bulgaria]], [[Czech Republic]], [[Hungary]], [[Israel]], [[Latvia]], [[Lithuania]], [[North Macedonia]], [[Montenegro]], [[Morocco]], [[Romania]] and [[Slovakia]]. {| class="sortable wikitable mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" |- ! style="width:12em;" | Member state<ref name=memberstates>{{cite web |url=http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are/member-states |title=ECMWF Member States|date=2017 |publisher=ECMWF }}</ref> ! style="width:8em;" | Year of joining |- |{{flag|Austria}} | align="right" | 1975 |- |{{flag|Belgium}} | align="right" | 1975 |- |{{flag|Croatia}} | align="right" | 2011 |- |{{flag|Denmark}} | align="right" | 1975 |- |{{flag|Estonia}} | align="right" | 2020 |- |{{flag|Finland}} | align="right" | 1975 |- |{{flag|France}} | align="right" | 1975 |- |{{flag|Germany}} | align="right" | 1975 |- |{{flag|Greece}} | align="right" | 1976 |- |{{flag|Iceland}} | align="right" | 2011 |- |{{flag|Ireland}} | align="right" | 1975 |- |{{flag|Italy}} | align="right" | 1977 |- |{{flag|Luxembourg}} | align="right" | 2002 |- |{{flag|Netherlands}} | align="right" | 1975 |- |{{flag|Norway}} | align="right" | 1989 |- |{{flag|Portugal}} | align="right" | 1976 |- |{{flag|Serbia}} | align="right" | 2014 |- |{{flag|Slovenia}} | align="right" | 2011 |- |{{flag|Spain}} | align="right" | 1975 |- |{{flag|Sweden}} | align="right" | 1975 |- |{{flag|Switzerland}} | align="right" | 1975 |- |{{flag|Turkey}} | align="right" | 1976 |- |{{flag|United Kingdom}} | align="right" | 1975 |} {| class="sortable wikitable mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" |- ! style="width:12em;" | Co-operating State<ref name=cooperatingstates>{{cite web |url=http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are/member-states |title=ECMWF Co-operating States|date=2017 |publisher=ECMWF }}</ref> ! style="width:8em;" | Year of joining |- |{{flag|Bulgaria}} | align="right" | 12 July 2010 |- |{{flag|Czech Republic}} | align="right" | 1 August 2001 |- |{{flag|North Macedonia}} | align="right" | 9 February 2011 |- |{{flag|Hungary}} | align="right" | 1 July 1994 |- |{{flag|Israel}} | align="right" | 28 October 2010 |- |{{flag|Latvia}} | align="right" | 30 April 2008 |- |{{flag|Lithuania}} | align="right" | 20 November 2006 |- |{{flag|Montenegro}} | align="right" | 5 November 2007 |- |{{flag|Morocco}} | align="right" | 1 December 2006 |- |{{flag|Romania}} | align="right" | 22 December 2003 |- |{{flag|Slovakia}} | align="right" | 1 January 2008 |} {| class="sortable wikitable mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" |- ! style="width:12em;" | Co-operating agreements<ref name=cooperatingagreements>{{cite web |url=http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are/official-documents |title=ECMWF Co-operating Agreements|date=2017 |publisher=ECMWF }}</ref> ! style="width:8em;" | Year of joining |- |[[World Meteorological Organization|WMO]] | align="right" | 1 November 1975 |- |[[EUMETSAT]] | align="right" | 18 May 1988 |- |[[African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development|ACMAD]] | align="right" | 11 May 1995 |- |ALADIN/[[HIRLAM]] - Use of [[Integrated Forecast System|IFS]]/Arpege | align="right" | 19 February 1999 |- |[[Joint Research Centre|JRC]] | align="right" | 6 May 2003 |- |[[Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization|CTBTO]] | align="right" | 24 June 2003 |- |[[Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution|CLRTAP]] | align="right" | 26 January 2005 |- |[[European Space Agency|ESA]] | align="right" | 31 May 2005 |- |Memorandum of Understanding for Joint Liaison Office with European institutions in Brussels | align="right" | 23 April 2010 |- |RIMES | align="right" | 8 February 2012 |- |CMA | align="right" | 21 January 2014 |- |US NWS | align="right" | 23 January 2015 - amended 30 January 2018 |- |US NCAR | align="right" | 31 August 2016 |- |INPE Brazil | align="right" | 31 August 2017 |} ==See also== {{Portal|Weather|Europe}} *[[EUMETNET]] *[[European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites|EUMETSAT]] *[[Copernicus Programme]] ==References== {{Reflist}} ==Further reading== *{{cite book| title=Medium-Range Weather Prediction – the European Approach | last=Woods | first=Austin | publisher=Springer | year=2006 | isbn=978-0-387-26928-3}} ==External links== * {{Official Website}} * ECMWF Re-analysis (ERA) :: {{cite web |url= http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/ERA-15/index.html |title= ERA-15 |url-status= dead |archive-date= 11 August 2004 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20040811190105/http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/ERA-15/index.html }} :: {{cite web |url= http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/Project/index.html |title= ERA-40 |url-status= dead |archive-date= 11 August 2004 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20040811192422/http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/Project/index.html }} * [http://www.top500.org/site/47752 ECMWF] on [[TOP500]] {{National Meteorological Organisations}} {{Major Scientific Research Facilities based in the United Kingdom}} {{Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Climate Models}} {{authority control}} {{DEFAULTSORT:European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts}} [[Category:1975 establishments in the United Kingdom]] [[Category:Climate of Europe]] [[Category:Climate of the United Kingdom]] [[Category:European research networks]] [[Category:Government agencies established in 1975]] [[Category:Governmental meteorological agencies in Europe]] [[Category:Information technology organisations based in the United Kingdom]] [[Category:Meteorological organizations]] [[Category:Organisations based in Reading, Berkshire]] [[Category:Research institutes established in 1975]] [[Category:Research institutes in Berkshire]] [[Category:Borough of Wokingham]]'