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'{{For|the article on the war itself|World War I}} [[File:Balkan troubles1.jpg|thumb|The rulers of Germany, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, and the United Kingdom attempting to keep the lid on the simmering cauldron of imperialist and nationalist tensions in the Balkans to prevent a general European war. They were successful in 1912 and 1913 but did not succeed in 1914.]] The '''causes of [[World War I]]''', which began in central Europe in late July 1914, included intertwined factors, such as the conflicts and hostility of the four decades leading up to the war. [[Militarism]], [[alliances]], [[imperialism]], and [[nationalism]] played major roles in the conflict as well. The immediate origins of the war, however, lay in the decisions taken by statesmen and generals during the [[July Crisis|Crisis of 1914]], [[casus belli]] for which was the [[Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria|assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife]] by [[Gavrilo Princip]], an [[irredentism|irredentist]] [[Serb]].<ref name=Henig2002>{{Cite book | last=Henig | first=Ruth B. | authorlink=Ruth B. Henig | coauthors= | title=The origins of the First World War | year=2002 | publisher=Routledge | location=London | isbn=0-415-26205-4 | pages=}}</ref> The crisis came after a long and difficult series of diplomatic clashes between the [[Great Powers]] (Italy, France, Germany, the British Empire, the Austria-Hungarian Empire and Russia) over European and colonial issues in the decade before 1914 that had left tensions high. In turn these diplomatic clashes can be traced to changes in the balance of power in Europe since 1867.<ref>{{Cite book | last=Lieven | first=D. C. B. | authorlink=D. C. B. Lieven | coauthors= | title=Russia and the origins of the First World War | year=1983 | publisher=St. Martin's Press | location=New York | isbn=0-312-69608-6 | pages=}}</ref> The more immediate cause for the war was tensions over territory in the [[Balkans]]. [[Austria-Hungary]] competed with [[Serbia]] and [[Russia]] for territory and influence in the region and they pulled the rest of the Great Powers into the conflict through their various alliances and treaties. Although the chain of events unleashed by the assassination triggered the war, the war's origins go deeper, involving national politics, cultures, economics, and a complex web of alliances and counterbalances that had developed between the various European powers since 1870. Some of the most important long term or structural causes are: the growth of [[nationalism]] across Europe, unresolved territorial disputes, an intricate system of alliances, the perceived breakdown of the balance of power in Europe,<ref>Van Evera, Stephen. "The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War." (Summer 1984), p. 62.</ref><ref>Fischer, Fritz. "War of Illusions: German Policies from 1911 to 1914." trans. (1975), p. 69.</ref> convoluted and fragmented governance, the [[arms race]]s of the previous decades, previous military planning,<ref>Sagan, Scott D. ''1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense, and Instability'' (1986)</ref> imperial and colonial rivalry for wealth, power and prestige, and economic and military rivalry in industry and trade – e.g., the ''[[Pig War (Serbia)|Pig War]]'' between Austria and Serbia. Other causes that came into play during the diplomatic crisis that preceded the war included misperceptions of intent (e.g., the German belief that the United Kingdom would remain neutral) and delays and misunderstandings in diplomatic communications. The various categories of explanation for World War I correspond to different historians' overall [[Historiography#Approaches to history|methods]]. Most historians and popular commentators include causes from more than one category of explanation to provide a rounded account of the causes of the war. The deepest distinction among these accounts is between stories that see it as the inevitable and predictable outcome of certain factors, and those that describe it as an arbitrary and unfortunate mistake{{Citation needed|date=April 2007}}. In attributing causes for the war, historians and academics had to deal with an unprecedented flood of memoirs and official documents, released as each country involved tried to avoid blame for starting the war. Early releases of information by governments, particularly those released for use by the "Commission on the Responsibility of the Authors of the War" were shown to be incomplete and biased. In addition some documents, especially diplomatic cables between Russia and France, were found to have been doctored. Even in later decades however, when much more information had been released, historians from the same culture have been shown to come to differing conclusions on the causes of the war.<ref>Albertini (1965) page viii</ref> == Background == In November 1912, Russia was humiliated because of its inability to support Serbia during the [[Bosnian crisis]] of 1908 or the [[First Balkan War]], and announced a major reconstruction of its military. On November 28, German Foreign Secretary [[Gottlieb von Jagow]] told the [[Reichstag (German Empire)|Reichstag]] (the German parliament), that "If Austria is forced, for whatever reason, to fight for its position as a Great Power, then we must stand by her."<ref name=Fromkin88-92>{{Cite book | last=Fromkin | first=David | authorlink=David Fromkin | coauthors= | title=Europe's last summer: who started the Great War in 1914? | date= | publisher=New York : Knopf : 2004. | location= | isbn=978-0-375-41156-4 | pages=88–92}}</ref> As a result, British Foreign Secretary Sir [[Edward Grey, 1st Viscount Grey of Fallodon|Edward Grey]] responded by warning [[Karl Max, Prince Lichnowsky|Prince Karl Lichnowsky]], the German Ambassador in London, that if Germany offered Austria a "blank cheque" for war in the Balkans, then "the consequences of such a policy would be incalculable." To reinforce this point, [[Richard Haldane, 1st Viscount Haldane|R. B. Haldane]], the [[Germanophile]] Lord Chancellor, met with Prince Lichnowsky to offer an explicit warning that if Germany were to attack France, Britain would intervene in France's favor.<ref name="Fromkin88-92" /> With the recently announced Russian military reconstruction and certain British communications, the possibility of war was a leading topic at the [[German Imperial War Council of 8 December 1912]] in [[Berlin]], an informal meeting of some of Germany's top military leadership called on short notice by the [[Wilhelm II, German Emperor|Kaiser]].<ref name="Fromkin88-92" /> Attending the conference were Kaiser Wilhelm II, Admiral [[Alfred von Tirpitz]] - the Naval State Secretary, Admiral [[Georg Alexander von Müller]], the Chief of the [[German Imperial Naval Cabinet]] (Marinekabinett), [[Helmuth von Moltke the Younger|General von Moltke]] - the Army’s Chief of Staff, Admiral [[August von Heeringen]] - the Chief of the [[Oberkommando der Marine|Naval General Staff]] and General [[Moriz von Lyncker]], the Chief of the [[German Imperial Military Cabinet]].<ref name="Fromkin88-92" /> The presence of the leaders of both the German Army and Navy at this War Council attests to its importance. However, Chancellor [[Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg]] and General [[Josias von Heeringen]], the [[Prussian Minister of War]], were not invited.<ref>The Kaiser and His Court: Wilhelm II and the Government of Germany by John C. G. Röhl; Translated by Terence F. Cole, Cambridge University Press; 288 pages. p. 257.</ref> Wilhelm II called British balance of power principles "idiocy," but agreed that Haldane’s statement was a "desirable clarification" of British policy.<ref name="Fromkin88-92" /> His opinion was that Austria should attack Serbia that December, and if "Russia supports the Serbs, which she evidently does…then war would be unavoidable for us, too," <ref name="Fromkin88-92" /> and that would be better than going to war after Russia completed the massive modernization and expansion of their army that they had just begun. Moltke agreed. In his professional military opinion "a war is unavoidable and the sooner the better".<ref name="Fromkin88-92" /> Moltke "wanted to launch an immediate attack".<ref name=Rohl29-32>{{Cite book | last=Röhl | first=John C G | authorlink=John C G Röhl | coauthors= | title=1914: Delusion or Design | date= | publisher=Elek | location= | isbn=0-236-15466-4 | pages=29–32}}</ref> Both Wilhelm II and the Army leadership agreed that if a war were necessary it were best launched soon. Admiral Tirpitz, however, asked for a "postponement of the great fight for one and a half years" <ref name="Fromkin88-92" /> because the Navy was not ready for a general war that included Britain as an opponent. He insisted that the completion of the construction of the U-boat base at [[Heligoland]] and the widening of the [[Kiel Canal]] were the Navy’s prerequisites for war.<ref name="Fromkin88-92" /> As the British historian [[John Röhl]] has commented, the date for completion of the widening of the Kiel Canal was the summer of 1914.<ref name="Rohl29-32" /> Though Moltke objected to the postponement of the war as unacceptable, Wilhelm sided with Tirpitz.<ref name="Fromkin88-92" /> Moltke "agreed to a postponement only reluctantly."<ref name="Rohl29-32" /> Historians more sympathetic to the government of Wilhelm II often reject the importance of this War Council as only showing the thinking and recommendations of those present, with no decisions taken. They often cite the passage from [[Georg Alexander von Müller|Admiral Müller]]’s diary, which states: "That was the end of the conference. The result amounted to nothing."<ref name="Rohl29-32" /> Certainly the only decision taken was to do nothing. Historians more sympathetic to the Entente, such as British historian [[John Röhl]], sometimes rather ambitiously interpret these words of Admiral Müller (an advocate of launching a war soon) as saying that "nothing" was decided for 1912-13, but that war was decided on for the summer of 1914.<ref name="Rohl29-32" /> Röhl is on safer ground when he argues that even if this War Council did not reach a binding decision—which it clearly did not—it did nonetheless offer a clear view of their intentions,<ref name="Rohl29-32" /> or at least their thoughts, which were that if there was going to be a war, the German Army wanted it before the new Russian armaments program began to bear fruit.<ref name="Rohl29-32" /> Entente sympathetic historians such as Röhl see this conference, in which "The result amounted to nothing,"<ref name="Rohl29-32" /> as setting a clear deadline for a war to begin, namely the summer of 1914.<ref name="Rohl29-32" /> With the November 1912 announcement of the Russian Great Military Programme, the leadership of the German Army began clamoring even more strongly for a "preventive war" against Russia.<ref name="Fromkin88-92" /><ref name="Fromkin260-62">{{Cite book | last=Fromkin | first=David | authorlink=David Fromkin | coauthors= | title=Europe's last summer: who started the Great War in 1914? | date= | publisher=New York : Knopf : 2004. | location= | isbn=978-0-375-41156-4 | pages=260–62}}</ref> Moltke declared that Germany could not win the arms race with France, Britain and Russia, which she herself had begun in 1911, because the financial structure of the German state, which gave the ''Reich'' government little power to tax, meant Germany would bankrupt herself in an arms race.<ref name="Fromkin88-92" /> As such, Moltke from late 1912 onwards was the leading advocate for a general war, and the sooner the better.<ref name="Fromkin88-92" /> Throughout May and June 1914, Moltke engaged in an "almost ultimative" demand for a German "preventive war" against Russia in 1914.<ref name="Rohl29-32" /> The German Foreign Secretary, Gottlieb von Jagow, reported on a discussion with Moltke at the end of May 1914: <blockquote>"Moltke described to me his opinion of our military situation. The prospects of the future oppressed him heavily. In two or three years Russia would have completed her armaments. The military superiority of our enemies would then be so great that he did not know how he could overcome them. Today we would still be a match for them. In his opinion there was no alternative to making preventive war in order to defeat the enemy while we still had a chance of victory. The Chief of the General Staff therefore proposed that I should conduct a policy with the aim of provoking a war in the near future." <ref name="Rohl29-32" /></blockquote> The new French President [[Raymond Poincaré]], who took office in 1913, was favourable to improving relations with Germany.<ref name=Fromkin80-82>{{Cite book | last=Fromkin | first=David | authorlink=David Fromkin | coauthors= | title=Europe's last summer: who started the Great War in 1914? | date= | publisher=New York : Knopf : 2004. | location= | isbn=978-0-375-41156-4 | pages=80–82}}</ref> In January 1914 Poincaré became the first French President to dine at the German Embassy in Paris.<ref name="Fromkin80-82" /> Poincaré was more interested in the idea of French expansion in the Middle East than a war of revenge to regain Alsace-Lorraine. Had the ''Reich'' been interested in improved relations with France before August 1914, the opportunity was available, but the leadership of the Reich lacked such interests, and preferred a policy of war to destroy France. Because of France’s smaller economy and population, by 1913 French leaders had largely accepted that France by itself could never defeat Germany.<ref>Howard, Michael "Europe on the Eve of the First World War’ pages 21-34 from ''The Outbreak of World War I'' edited by Holger Herwig, Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1997 page 26</ref> In May 1914, Serbian politics were polarized between two factions, one headed by the Prime Minister [[Nikola Pašić]], and the other by the radical nationalist chief of Military Intelligence, Colonel [[Dragutin Dimitrijević]], known by his codename Apis.<ref name=Fromkin124-25>{{Cite book | last=Fromkin | first=David | authorlink=David Fromkin | coauthors= | title=Europe's last summer: who started the Great War in 1914? | date= | publisher=New York : Knopf : 2004. | location= | isbn=978-0-375-41156-4 | pages=124–25}}</ref> In that month, due to Colonel Dimitrigjevic’s intrigues, King [[Peter I of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes|Peter]] dismissed Pašić’s government.<ref name="Fromkin124-25" /> The Russian Minister in Belgrade intervened to have Pašić’s government restored.<ref name="Fromkin124-25" /> Pašić, though he often talked tough in public, knew that Serbia was near-bankrupt and, having suffered heavy casualties in the Balkan Wars and in the suppression of a December 1913 Albanian revolt in Kosovo, needed peace.<ref name="Fromkin124-25" /> Since Russia also favoured peace in the Balkans, from the Russian viewpoint it was desirable to keep Pašić in power.<ref name="Fromkin124-25" /> It was in the midst of this political crisis that politically powerful members of the Serbian military armed and trained three Bosnian students as assassins and sent them into Austria-Hungary.<ref>Dedijer, Vladimir. ''The Road to Sarajevo,'' Simon and Schuster, New York, 1966, p 398</ref> == Domestic political factors == === German domestic politics === Left-wing parties, especially the [[Social Democratic Party of Germany]] (SPD) made large gains in the [[German election, 1912|1912 German election]]. German government at the time was still dominated by the [[Prussia]]n [[Junker]]s who feared the rise of these left-wing parties. [[Fritz Fischer]] famously argued that they deliberately sought an external war to distract the population and whip up patriotic support for the government.<ref>* [[Fritz Fischer|Fischer, Fritz]] ''Germany's Aims In the First World War'', W. W. Norton; 1967 ISBN 0-393-05347-4</ref> Russia was in the midst of a large-scale military build-up and reform that they completed in 1916–17. Other authors argue that German conservatives were ambivalent about a war, worrying that losing a war would have disastrous consequences, and even a successful war might alienate the population if it were lengthy or difficult.<ref name="Ferguson">[[Niall Ferguson|Ferguson, Niall]] ''The Pity of War'' Basic Books, 1999 ISBN 0-465-05712-8</ref> === French domestic politics === The situation in France was quite different from that in Germany as going to war appeared to the majority of political and military leaders to be a potentially costly gamble. It is undeniable that forty years after the loss of [[Alsace-Lorraine]] a vast number of French were still angered by the territorial loss, as well as by the humiliation of being compelled to pay a large reparation to Germany in 1870. The diplomatic alienation of France orchestrated by Germany prior to World War I caused further resentment in France. Nevertheless, the leaders of France recognized Germany's strong military advantage against them, as Germany had nearly twice as much population and a better equipped army. At the same time, the episodes of the [[Tangier Crisis]] in 1905 and the [[Agadir Crisis]] in 1911 had given France a strong indication that war with Germany could be inevitable if Germany continued to oppose French colonial expansionism. More than a century after the [[French Revolution]], there was still a fierce struggle between the left-wing French government and its right-wing opponents, as socialists like [[Jean Jaurès]] pushed for peace against nationalists like [[Paul Déroulède]] who were inclined to go to war. Recent social reforms created a climate of insecurity which some right-wing politicians thought could be resolved by the nationalistic spirit of war. France in 1914 had never been so prosperous and influential in Europe since 1870, nor its military so strong and confident in its leaders, emboldened by its success in North Africa and the overall pacification of its vast colonial empire. Indeed, if France had attempted for more than forty years to appease bellicose Germany, a majority of the Frenchmen now believed it could face the German threat with more tranquility than before. The ''[[Entente Cordiale]]'' with [[Great Britain]] signed in 1904 seemed to last, being aided by mutual interests abroad and strong economic ties. Russia had fled the ''triple crown alliance'' with Germany and [[Austria-Hungary]] because of disagreements with Austria-Hungary over policy in the [[Balkans]]. Russia also hoped that large French investments in its industry and infrastructures coupled with an important military partnership would prove themselves profitable and durable. France ultimately perceived it could fight Germany and attempt to gain back the German-speaking provinces of [[Alsace-Lorraine]]. It is important to note however, that France never could have permitted itself to initiate a war with Germany, as its military pact with Great-Britain was only purely defensive. The misperception that Germany wouldn't, as prepared by the [[Schlieffen Plan]] invade neutral [[Belgium]], would find itself lethal to the defensive French military doctrine on the eve of the first worldwide conflict. === Changes in Austria === In 1867, the [[Austrian Empire]] fundamentally changed its governmental structure, becoming the Dual Monarchy of Austria-Hungary. For hundreds of years, the empire had been run in an essentially [[feudal]] manner with a [[German language|German-speaking]] [[aristocracy]] at its head. However, with the threat represented by an emergence of nationalism within the empire's many component ethnicities, some elements, including Emperor [[Franz Joseph]], decided that a compromise was required to preserve the power of the German aristocracy. In 1867, the ''[[Ausgleich]]'' was agreed on, which made the [[Magyars|Magyar]] (Hungarian) elite in Hungary almost equal partners in the government of Austria-Hungary. [[File:Austria Hungary ethnic.svg|thumb|left|400px|Ethno-linguistic map of Austria–Hungary in 1910]] This arrangement fostered a tremendous degree of dissatisfaction amongst many in the traditional German ruling classes.<ref>{{cite book | last=Wank |first= Soloman | title=After Empire: Multiethnic Societies and Nation-Building |chapter=The Habsburg Empire |year=1997 |publisher= Oxford University Press |editor=Karen Barkey and Mark von Hagen |place=Oxford}}</ref> Some of them considered the ''Ausgleich'' to have been a calamity because it often frustrated their intentions in the governance of Austria-Hungary.<ref>{{cite journal | last=Garland |first= John | journal=New Perspective |title=The Strength of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy in 1914 (Part 1) |year=1997 |url=http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~semp/strength1.htm|accessdate=May 15, 2010}}</ref> For example, it was extremely difficult for Austria-Hungary to form a coherent [[foreign policy]] that suited the interests of both the German and Magyar elite.<ref name="Williamson15">{{cite book|last=Williamson|first=Samuel R.|title=Austria-Hungary and the Origins of the First World War|publisher=St. Martin's Press|year=1991|page=15|isbn=0-312-05239-1}}</ref> Throughout the fifty years from 1867 to 1914, it proved difficult to reach adequate compromises in the governance of Austria-Hungary, leading many to search for non-diplomatic solutions. At the same time, a form of [[social Darwinism]] became popular among many in the Austrian half of the government. This thinking emphasised the primacy of armed struggle between nations, and the need for nations to arm themselves for an ultimate struggle for survival.<ref name="Bridge">{{cite book |last=Bridge|first=F.R.|title=The Last years of Austria-Hungary|editor=Mark Cornwall|place=Exeter|publisher=University of Exeter Press|year=2002|chapter=The Foreign Policy of the Monarchy|page=26}}</ref><ref name="Fellner">{{cite book |last=Fellner|first=Fritz|chapter=Austria-Hungary|title=Decisions for War|editor=Keith Wilson|publisher=St. Martin's Press|year=1995|place=New York}}</ref> As a result, at least two distinct strains of thought advocated war with Serbia, often unified in the same people. Some reasoned that dealing with political deadlock required that more Slavs be brought into Austria-Hungary to dilute the power of the Magyar elite. With more Slavs, the [[South Slavs]] of Austria-Hungary could force a new political compromise in which the Germans could play the Magyars against the South Slavs.<ref name="Leslie" /> Other variations on this theme existed, but the essential idea was to cure internal stagnation through external conquest. Another fear was that the South Slavs, primarily under the leadership of Serbia, were organizing for a war against Austria-Hungary, and even all of Germanic civilization. Some leaders, such as [[Conrad von Hötzendorf]], argued that Serbia must be dealt with before it became too powerful to defeat militarily.<ref name="Sked">{{cite book |last=Sked|first=Alan|title=The Decline and Fall of the Habsburg Empire 1815-1918|publisher=Longman Group|place=Burnt Mill|year=1989|page=254}}</ref> A powerful contingent within the Austro-Hungarian government was motivated by these thoughts and advocated war with Serbia long before the war began. Prominent members of this group included [[Leopold von Berchtold]], [[Alexander Hoyos|Alexander von Hoyos]], and [[Count Johann von Forgách|Johann von Forgách]]. Although many other members of the government, notably Franz Ferdinand, [[Franz Joseph]], and many Hungarian politicians did not believe that a violent struggle with Serbia would necessarily solve any of Austria-Hungary's problems, the [[hawkish]] elements did exert a strong influence on government policy, holding key positions.<ref name="Leslie">{{cite journal |last=Leslie|first= John|year=1993|title=The Antecedents of Austria-Hungary’s War Aims|journal=Wiener Beiträge zur Geschichte der Neuzeit|editor=Elisabeth Springer and Leopold Kammerhofer|volume=20|pages=307–394}}</ref> Samuel R. Williamson has emphasized the role of Austria-Hungary in starting the war. Convinced Serbian nationalism and Russian Balkan ambitions were disintegrating the Empire, Austria-Hungary hoped for a limited war against Serbia and that strong German support would force Russia to keep out of the war and weaken its Balkan prestige.<ref name="Williamson">{{cite book|last=Williamson|first=Samuel R.|title=Austria-Hungary and the Origins of the First World War|publisher=St. Martin's Press|year=1991|isbn= 0-312-05239-1}}</ref> == International relations == === Imperialism === {{see also|New Imperialism}} [[File:WWI-re.png|thumb|400px|Map of the world with the [[participants in World War I]] prior to the [[Treaty of Brest-Litovsk]]. The [[Allies of World War I|Allies]] are depicted in green, the [[Central Powers]] in orange and neutral countries in grey.]] Some scholars have attributed the start of the war to [[imperialism]].<ref>Bukharin, N., (1972), Imperialism and World Economy, (London).</ref> Countries such as the United Kingdom and France accumulated great wealth in the late 19th century through their control of trade in foreign resources, markets, territories, and people.{{Citation needed|date=May 2009}} Other empires, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy, and Russia all hoped to do so as well in economic advantage. Their frustrated ambitions, and British policies of strategic exclusion created tensions. In addition, the limits of natural resources in many European nations began to slowly alter trade balance, and make national industries seek new territories rich in natural resources.{{Citation needed|date=May 2009}} Commercial interests contributed substantially to Anglo-German rivalry during the scramble for tropical Africa. This was the scene of sharpest conflict between certain German and British commercial interests. There have been two partitions of Africa. One involved the actual imposition of political boundaries across the continent during the last quarter of the 19th century; the other, which actually commenced in the mid-19th century, consisted of the so-called 'business' partition. In southern Africa the latter partition followed rapidly upon the discoveries of diamonds and gold in 1867 and 1886 respectively. An integral part of this second partition was the expansion in the interior of British capital interests, primarily the [[British South Africa Company]] and mining companies such as [[De Beers]]. After 1886 the [[Witwatersrand]] goldfields prompted feverish activity among European as well as British capitalists. It was soon felt in Whitehall that German commercial penetration in particular constituted a direct threat to Britain's continued economic and political hegemony south of the Limpopo. Amid the expanding web of German business on the Rand, the most contentious operations were those of the German-financed [[N.Z.A.S.M.]] or Netherlands South African Railway Company, which possessed a railway monopoly in the Transvaal. Rivalries for not just colonies, but colonial trade and trade routes developed between the emerging economic powers and the incumbent [[great powers]]. Although still argued differently according to historical perspectives on the path to war, this rivalry was illustrated in the [[Berlin-Baghdad Railway]], which would have given German industry access to Iraqi oil, and German trade a southern port in the [[Persian Gulf]]. A history of this railroad in the context of World War I has arrived to describe the German interests in countering the British Empire at a global level, and Turkey's interest in countering their Russian rivals at a regional level.<ref>Sean McMeekin, 'The Berlin-Baghdad Express: The Ottoman Empire and Germany's bid for world power. 2010, ISBN 978-0-674-05739-5</ref> As stated by a contemporary 'man on the ground' at the time, Jastrow wrote, "It was felt in England that if, as Napoleon is said to have remarked, Antwerp in the hands of a great continental power was a pistol leveled at the English coast, Bagdad and the Persian Gulf in the hands of Germany (or any other strong power) would be a 42-centimetre gun pointed at India." <ref>[http://www.archive.org/details/warandthebagdadr001985mbp Jastrow, 1917. page 97 in 'The War and the Bagdad Railway']</ref> On the other side, "Public opinion in Germany was feasting on visions of Cairo, Baghdad, and Tehran, and the possibility of evading the British blockade through outlets to the Indian Ocean." <ref>[http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/pollard/HistoryWar.pdf AF Pollard, 1919. 'A Short History of the Great War' accessible at]</ref> Britain's initial strategic exclusion of others from northern access to a Persian Gulf port in the creation of [[Kuwait]] by treaty as a protected, subsidized client state showed political recognition of the importance of the issue.<ref>[http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35876.htm]</ref> If outcome is revealing, by the close of the war this political recognition was re-emphasized in the military effort to capture the railway itself, recounted with perspective in a contemporary history: "On the 26th Aleppo fell, and on the 28th we reached Muslimieh, that junction on the Baghdad railway on which longing eyes had been cast as the nodal point in the conflict of German and other ambitions in the East." <ref>Pollard, 1919. 'A Short History of the Great War' chapter 19, p204. available at [http://Socserv.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/pollard/HistoryWar.pdf]</ref> The [[Treaty of Versailles]] explicitly removed all German ownership thereafter, which without Ottoman rule left access to Mesopotamian and Persian oil, and northern access to a southern port in British hands alone. Rivalries among the great powers were exacerbated starting in the 1880s by the [[Scramble for Africa|scramble for colonies]], which brought much of Africa and Asia under European rule in the following quarter-century. It also created great Anglo-French and Anglo-Russian tensions and crises that prevented a British alliance with either until the early 20th century. Otto von Bismarck disliked the idea of an overseas empire, but pursued a colonial policy to court domestic political support. This started Anglo-German tensions since German acquisitions in Africa and the [[Pacific Ocean|Pacific]] threatened to impinge upon British strategic and commercial interests. Bismarck supported French colonization in Africa because it diverted government attention and resources away from continental Europe and [[revanchism]]. In spite of all of Bismarck's deft diplomatic maneuvering, in 1890 he was forced to resign by the new Kaiser (Wilhelm II). His successor, [[Leo von Caprivi]], was the last German Chancellor who was successful in calming Anglo-German tensions. After his loss of office in 1894, German policy led to greater conflicts with the other colonial powers. The status of [[Morocco]] had been guaranteed by international agreement, and when France attempted to greatly expand its influence there without the assent of all the other signatories Germany opposed it prompting the Moroccan Crises, the [[Tangier Crisis]] of 1905 and the [[Agadir Crisis]] of 1911. The intent of German policy was to drive a wedge between the British and French, but in both cases produced the opposite effect and Germany was isolated diplomatically, most notably lacking the support of Italy despite Italian membership in the Triple Alliance. The French protectorate over Morocco was established officially in 1912. In 1914, there were no outstanding colonial conflicts, Africa essentially having been claimed fully, apart from [[Ethiopia]], for several years. However, the competitive mentality, as well as a fear of "being left behind" in the competition for the world's resources may have played a role in the decisions to begin the conflict.{{Citation needed|date=May 2009}} === Web of alliances === [[File:WWIchartX.svg|300px|thumb|European military alliances shortly after outbreak of war]] [[File:Chain of Friendship cartoon.gif|300px|thumb|"The Chain of Friendship", an American cartoon from 1914 depicting the web of alliances, captioned, "If Austria attacks Serbia, Russia will fall upon Austria, Germany upon Russia, and France and England upon Germany."]] A loose web of [[alliance]]s around the European nations existed (many of them requiring participants to agree to collective defense if attacked): * [[Treaty of London, 1839]], about the neutrality of [[Belgium]] * [[German-Austrian treaty]] (1879) or [[Dual Alliance, 1879|Dual Alliance]] * Italy joining Germany and Austria in 1882 * [[Franco-Russian Alliance]] (1894) * The "[[Entente Cordiale]]" between Britain and France (1904), which left the northern coast of France undefended, and the separate "entente" between Britain and Russia (1907) that formed the [[Triple Entente]] This complex set of treaties binding various players in Europe together before the war sometimes is thought to have been misunderstood by contemporary political leaders. The traditionalist theory of "Entangling Alliances" has been shown to be mistaken; The Triple Entente between Russia, France and the United Kingdom did not in fact force any of those powers to mobilize because it was not a military treaty. Mobilization by a relatively minor player would not have had a cascading effect that could rapidly run out of control, involving every country. The crisis between Austria-Hungary and Serbia could have been a localized issue. This is how Austria-Hungary's declaration of war against Serbia resulted in Britain declaring war on Germany: * June 28, 1914: Serbian irredentists assassinate Archduke Franz Ferdinand of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. * July 23: Austria-Hungary, following their own secret enquiry, sends an ultimatum to Serbia, containing several very severe demands. In particular, they gave only forty-eight hours to comply. Whilst both Great Britain and Russia sympathised with many of the demands, both agreed the timescale was far too short. Both nevertheless advised Serbia to comply. * July 24: Germany officially declares support for Austria's position. * July 24: Sir Edward Grey, speaking for the British government, asks that Germany, France, Italy and Great Britain, "who had no direct interests in Serbia, should act together for the sake of peace simultaneously."<ref>How War Came About Between Great Britain and Germany; H E Legge</ref> * July 25: The Serbian government replies to Austria, and agrees to most of the demands. However, certain demands brought into question her survival as an independent nation. On these points they asked that the [[Hague Tribunal]] arbitrate. * July 25: Russia enters a period preparatory to war and mobilization begins on all frontiers. Government decides on a partial mobilization in principle to begin on July 29. * July 25: Serbia mobilizes its army; responds to Austro-Hungarian [[démarche]] with less than full acceptance; Austria-Hungary breaks diplomatic relations with Serbia. * July 26: Serbia reservists accidentally violate Austro-Hungarian border at Temes-Kubin.<ref>Albertini, Luigi. ''Origins of the War of 1914'', Oxford University Press, London, 1953, Vol II pp 461-462, 465</ref> * July 26: Russia having agreed to stand aside whilst others conferred, a meeting is organised to take place between ambassadors from Great Britain, Germany, Italy and France to discuss the crisis. Germany declines the invitation. * July 27: Sir Edward Grey meets the German ambassador independently. A telegram to Berlin after the meeting states, "Other issues might be raised that would supersede the dispute between Austria and Serbia…as long as Germany would work to keep peace I would keep closely in touch." * July 28: Austria-Hungary, having failed to accept Serbia's response of the 25th, declares war on Serbia. Mobilisation against Serbia begins. * July 29: Russian general mobilization is ordered, and then changed to partial mobilization. * July 29: Sir Edward Grey appeals to Germany to intervene to maintain peace. * July 29: The British Ambassador in Berlin, Sir Edward Goschen, is informed by the German Chancellor that Germany is contemplating war with France, and furthermore, wishes to send its army through Belgium. He tries to secure Britain's neutrality in such an action. * July 30: Russian general mobilization is reordered at 5:00 P.M. * July 31: Austrian general mobilization is ordered. * July 31: Germany enters a period preparatory to war. * July 31: Germany sends an ultimatum to Russia, demanding that they halt military preparations within twelve hours. * July 31: Both France and Germany are asked by Britain to declare their support for the ongoing neutrality of Belgium. France agrees to this. Germany does not respond. * August 1 (3 A.M.): [[George V|King George V]] of Great Britain personally telegraphs [[Nicholas II of Russia|Tsar Nicholas II of Russia]]. * August 1: French general mobilization is ordered. * August 1: German general mobilization is ordered. * August 1: Germany declares war against Russia. * August 1: The Tsar responds to the king's telegram, stating, "I would gladly have accepted your proposals had not the German ambassador this afternoon presented a note to my Government declaring war." * August 2: Germany and [[The Ottoman Empire]] sign a secret treaty.<ref>[http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/turkgerm.htm The Treaty of Alliance Between Germany and Turkey] August 2, 1914</ref> entrenching the [[Ottoman-German Alliance]] * August 3: Germany, after France declines (''See Note'') its demand to remain neutral,<ref name=Taylor524>{{cite book |last= Taylor |first= A. J. P. |authorlink= A. J. P. Taylor |title= The Struggle For Mastery In Europe 1848-1918 |publisher= Oxford University Press |isbn= 0-19-881270-1 |page= 524 |year= 1954}}</ref> declares war on France. Germany states to Belgium that she would "treat her as an enemy" if she did not allow free passage of German troops across her lands. * August 3: Britain, expecting German naval attack on the northern French coast, states that Britain would give "…all the protection in its powers." * August 4: Germany invades Belgium according to the modified [[Schlieffen Plan]]. * August 4 (midnight): Having failed to receive notice from Germany assuring the neutrality of Belgium, Britain declares war on Germany. * August 6: Austria-Hungary declares war on Russia. * August 23: [[Japan]], honouring the [[Anglo-Japanese Alliance]], declares war on Germany. * August 25: Japan declares war on Austria-Hungary. ''Note: French Prime Minister [[Rene Viviani]] merely replied to the German ultimatum that, "France will act in accordance with her interests."<ref name="Taylor524"/>'' Had the French agreed to remain neutral, the German Ambassador was authorized to ask the French to temporarily surrender the Fortresses of Toul and Verdun as a guarantee of neutrality. === Arms race === As [[David Stevenson (WW1 historian)|David Stevenson]] has put it, "A self-reinforcing cycle of heightened military preparedness…was an essential element in the conjuncture that led to disaster…The armaments race…was a necessary precondition for the outbreak of hostilities." David Herrmann goes further, arguing that the fear that "windows of opportunity for victorious wars" were closing, "the arms race did precipitate the First World War." If Archduke Franz Ferdinand had been assassinated in 1904 or even in 1911, Herrmann speculates, there might have been no war. It was "…the armaments race…and the speculation about imminent or preventive wars" that made his death in 1914 the trigger for war.<ref name=Ferguson82>Ferguson 1999, p. 82.</ref> {| class="wikitable" |- ! colspan=4 | The naval strength of the powers in 1914 |- ! Country ! Personnel ! Large Naval Vessels<br>([[Dreadnoughts]]) ! Tonnage |- | Russia | style="text-align: right" | 54,000 | style="text-align: center" | 4 | style="text-align: right" | 328,000 |- | France | style="text-align: right" | 68,000 | style="text-align: center" | 10 | style="text-align: right" | 731,000 |- | Britain | style="text-align: right" | 209,000 | style="text-align: center" | 29 | style="text-align: right" | 2,205,000 |- | style="text-align: right" | '''TOTAL''' | style="text-align: right" | '''331,000''' | style="text-align: center" | '''43''' | style="text-align: right" | '''3,264,000''' |- | Germany | style="text-align: right" | 79,000 | style="text-align: center" | 17 | style="text-align: right" | 1,019,000 |- | Austria-Hungary | style="text-align: right" | 16,000 | style="text-align: center" | 4 | style="text-align: right" | 249,000 |- | style="text-align: right" | '''TOTAL''' | style="text-align: right" | '''95,000''' | style="text-align: center" | '''21''' | style="text-align: right" | '''1,268,000''' |- | colspan=4 | (Source: Ferguson 1999, p.&nbsp;85) |} Some historians see the German naval build-up as the principal cause of deteriorating Anglo-German relations. The overwhelming British response, however, proved to Germany that its efforts were unlikely to equal the [[Royal Navy]]. In 1900, the British had a 3.7:1 tonnage advantage over Germany; in 1910 the ratio was 2.3:1 and in 1914, 2.1:1. Ferguson argues that, "So decisive was the British victory in the naval arms race that it is hard to regard it as in any meaningful sense a cause of the First World War."<ref name=Ferguson8385>Ferguson 1999, pp. 83–85.</ref> This ignores the fact that the ''[[Kaiserliche Marine]]'' had narrowed the gap by nearly half, and that the Royal Navy had long intended to be stronger than any two potential opponents; the [[United States Navy]] was in a period of growth, making the German gains very ominous. Technological changes, with oil- rather than coal-fuelled ships, decreasing refuelling time while increasing speed and range, and with superior armour and artillery also would favour the growing and newer German fleet. One of the aims of the '''First Hague Conference''' of 1899, held at the suggestion of Emperor Nicholas II, was to discuss disarmament. The '''Second Hague Conference''' was held in 1907. All the signatories except for Germany supported disarmament. Germany also did not want to agree to binding arbitration and mediation. The Kaiser was concerned that the United States would propose disarmament measures, which he opposed.{{citation needed|date=September 2012}} ==== Anglo–German naval race ==== {{Main|Anglo–German naval arms race}} Motivated by [[Wilhelm II]]’s enthusiasm for an expanded German navy, Grand Admiral [[Alfred von Tirpitz]] championed four [[German Naval Laws|Fleet Acts]] from 1898 to 1912, and, from 1902 to 1910, the [[Royal Navy]] embarked on its own massive expansion to keep ahead of the Germans. This competition came to focus on the revolutionary new ships based on the [[HMS Dreadnought (1906)|''Dreadnought'']], which was launched in 1906. In 1913, there was intense internal debate about new ships due to the growing influence of [[John Fisher, 1st Baron Fisher|John Fisher's]] ideas and increasing financial constraints. It is now generally accepted by historians that in early-mid 1914 the Germans adopted a policy of building submarines instead{{Dubious|date=February 2010}} of new dreadnoughts and destroyers, effectively abandoning the two power standard, but kept this new policy secret to delay other powers following suit.<ref>Lambert, Nicholas A. "British Naval Policy, 1913-1914: Financial Limitation and Strategic Revolution" ''The Journal of Modern History'', 67, no.3 (1995), pages 623-626.</ref> Though the Germans abandoned the naval race, as such, before the war broke out, it had been one of the chief factors in the United Kingdom joining the [[Triple Entente]] and therefore important in the formation of the alliance system as a whole. ==== Russian interests in Balkans and Ottoman Empire ==== The main Russian goals included strengthening its role as the protector of Eastern Christians in The Balkans (such as the Serbians).<ref>Barbara Jelavich. ''Russia's Balkan Entanglements, 1806-1914'' (2004) p 10</ref> Although Russia enjoyed a booming economy, growing population, and large armed forces, its strategic position was threatened by an expanding Turkish military trained by German experts using the latest technology. The start of the war renewed attention of old goals: expelling the Turks from Constantinople, extending Russian dominion into eastern Anatolia and Persian Azerbaijan, and annexing Galicia. These conquests would assure Russian predominance in the Black Sea.<ref>Sean McMeekin, ''The Russian Origins of the First World War'' (Harvard University Press, 2011).</ref> == Technical and military factors == === Over by Christmas === Both sides believed, and publicly stated, that the war would end soon. The Kaiser told his troops that they would be, "…home before the leaves have fallen from the trees," and one German officer said he expected to be in Paris by [[Sedantag]], about six weeks away. Germany only stockpiled enough [[potassium nitrate]] for gunpowder for six months. Russian officers similarly expected to be in Berlin in six weeks, and those who suggested that the war would last for six months were considered pessimists. Von Moltke and his French counterpart [[Joseph Joffre]] were among the few who expected a long war, but neither adjusted his nation's military plans accordingly. The new British [[Secretary of State for War]] [[Herbert Kitchener, 1st Earl Kitchener|Lord Kitchener]] was the only leading official on either side to both expect a long war ("three years" or longer, he told an amazed colleague) and act accordingly, immediately [[Recruitment to the British Army during the First World War|building an army of millions of soldiers]] who would fight for years.<ref name=Tuchman>{{cite book|title=[[The Guns of August]]|last=Tuchman|first=Barbara|year=1962|publisher=Random House|place=New York}}</ref>{{rp|158-159}} Some authors such as [[Niall Ferguson]] argue that the belief in a swift war has been greatly exaggerated since the war.<ref name="Ferguson" /> He argues that the military planners, especially in Germany, were aware of the potential for a long war, as shown by the [[The Willy-Nicky Correspondence|Willy-Nicky telegraphic correspondence]] between the emperors of Russia and Germany. He also argues that most informed people considered a swift war unlikely. However, it was in the belligerent governments' interests to convince their populaces, through skillful [[propaganda]], that the war would be brief. Such a message encouraged men to join the offensive, made the war seem less serious, and promoted general high spirits. === Primacy of the offensive and war by timetable === {{see also|Cult of the offensive}} Military theorists of the time generally held that seizing the offensive was extremely important. This theory encouraged all belligerents to strike first to gain the advantage. This attitude shortened the window for diplomacy. Most planners wanted to begin mobilization as quickly as possible to avoid being caught on the defensive. Some historians assert that mobilization schedules were so rigid that once it was begun, they could not be cancelled without massive disruption of the country and military disorganization and so diplomatic overtures conducted after the mobilizations had begun were ignored.<ref>Taylor, A. J. P. "War by Timetable: How the First World War Began" (London, 1969)</ref> However in practice these timetables were not always decisive. The Tsar ordered general mobilization canceled on July 29 despite his chief of staff's objections that this was impossible.<ref>Trachtenberg, Marc "The Meaning of Mobilization in 1914" ''International Security'' Vol. 15, No. 3 (1990-1991), 141.</ref> A similar cancellation was made in Germany by the Kaiser on August 1 over the same objections,<ref name=Stevenson>Stevenson, David "War by Timetable? The Railway Race before 1914" ''Past and Present'', 162 (1999), 192. Also see Williamson Samuel R. Jr. and Ernest R. May "An Identity of Opinion: Historians and July 1914" ''The Journal of Modern History'' 79, (June 2007), 361-362, or Trachtenberg, Marc "The Meaning of Mobilization in 1914" ''International Security'' Vol. 15, No. 3 (1990-1991), 140-141.</ref> although in theory Germany should have been the country most firmly bound by its mobilization schedule. [[Barbara Tuchman]] offers another explanation in the [[The Guns of August|''Guns of August'']]—that the nations involved were concerned about falling behind their adversaries in mobilization. According to Tuchman, war pressed against every frontier. Suddenly dismayed, governments struggled and twisted to fend it off. It was no use. Agents at frontiers were reporting every cavalry patrol as a deployment to beat the mobilization gun. General staffs, goaded by their relentless timetables, were pounding the table for the signal to move lest their opponents gain an hour's head start. Appalled on the brink, the chiefs of state ultimately responsible for their country's fate attempted to back away, but the pull of military schedules dragged them forward.<ref>{{cite book |title= The Guns of August|last= Tuchman|first= Barbara|year= 1962|publisher= Macmillan|location= New York|isbn= 627515|page= 72}}</ref></blockquote> === Schlieffen Plan === [[File:Schlieffen Plan fr.svg|350px |thumb|Map of the [[Schlieffen Plan]] and planned French counter-offensives]] Germany's strategic vulnerability, sandwiched between its allied rivals, led to the development of the audacious (and incredibly expensive) [[Schlieffen Plan]]. It aimed to knock France instantly out of contention, before Russia had time to mobilize its gigantic human reserves. It aimed to accomplish this task within 6 weeks. Germany could then turn her full resources to meeting the Russian threat. Although Count [[Alfred von Schlieffen]] initially conceived the plan before his retirement in 1906, Japan's defeat of Russia in the [[Russo-Japanese War]] of 1904 exposed Russia's organizational weakness and added greatly to the plan's credibility. The plan called for a rapid German mobilization, sweeping through the [[Netherlands]], Luxembourg, and Belgium, into France. Schlieffen called for overwhelming numbers on the far right flank, the northernmost spearhead of the force with only minimum troops making up the arm and axis of the formation as well as a minimum force stationed on the Russian eastern front. Schlieffen was replaced by [[Helmuth von Moltke the Younger|Helmuth von Moltke]], and in 1907–08 Moltke adjusted the plan, reducing the proportional distribution of the forces, lessening the crucial right wing in favor of a slightly more defensive strategy. Also, judging Holland unlikely to grant permission to cross its borders, the plan was revised to make a direct move through Belgium and an artillery assault on the Belgian city of [[Liège (city)|Liège]]. With the rail lines and the unprecedented firepower the German army brought, Moltke did not expect any significant defense of the fortress. The significance of the Schlieffen Plan is that it forced German military planners to prepare for a [[pre-emptive strike]] when war was deemed unavoidable. Otherwise Russia would have time to mobilize and crush Germany with its massive army. On August 1, Kaiser Wilhelm II briefly became convinced that it might be possible to ensure French and British neutrality and cancelled the plan despite the objections of the Chief of Staff that this could not be done and resuming it only when the offer of a neutral France and Britain was withdrawn.<ref name=Stevenson /> It appears that no war planners in any country had prepared effectively for the Schlieffen Plan. The French were not concerned about such a move. They were confident their offensive ([[Plan XVII]]) would break the German center and cut off the German right wing moving through Belgium. They also expected that an early Russian offensive in East Prussia would tie down German forces. ===British security issues=== In explaining why neutral Britain went to war with Germany, [[Paul Kennedy]], in ''The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860-1914'', claimed that it was critical for war that Germany become economically more powerful than Britain, but he downplayed the disputes over economic trade imperialism, the [[Baghdad Railway]], confrontations in Eastern Europe, high-charged political rhetoric and domestic pressure-groups. Germany's reliance time and again on sheer power, while Britain increasingly appealed to moral sensibilities, played a role, especially in seeing the invasion of Belgium as a necessary military tactic or a profound moral crime. The German invasion of Belgium was not important because the British decision had already been made and the British were more concerned with the fate of France.<ref>Kennedy, Paul ''The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860-1914'', Allen & Unwin, 1980 ISBN 0-04-940060-6, pp 457–62.</ref> Kennedy argues that by far the main reason was London's fear that a repeat of 1870—when Prussia and the German states smashed France—would mean Germany, with a powerful army and navy, would control the English Channel, and northwest France. British policy makers insisted that would be a catastrophe for British security.<ref>Paul M. Kennedy, ''The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860-1914'' (1980) pp 464-70</ref> == Specific events == === Franco–Prussian War (1870–1871) === [[File:BismarckundNapoleonIII.jpg|thumb|[[Napoleon III]] and [[Otto von Bismarck|Bismarck]] after the 1870 [[Battle of Sedan]], of the [[Franco-Prussian War]].]] Many of the direct origins of World War I can be seen in the results and consequences of the [[Franco-Prussian War]]. This conflict brought the establishment of a powerful and dynamic Germany, causing what was seen as a displacement or unbalancing of power: this new and prosperous nation had the industrial and military potential to threaten Europe, and particularly the already established European powers. Germany’s nationalism, its natural resources, its economic strengths and its ambitions sparked colonial and military rivalries with other nations, particularly the Anglo-German naval [[arms race]]. A legacy of animosity grew between France and Germany following the German annexation of parts of the formerly French territory of [[Alsace-Lorraine]]. The annexation caused widespread resentment in France, giving rise to the desire for revenge, known as [[revanchism]]. French sentiments wanted to avenge military and territorial losses, and the displacement of France as the pre-eminent continental military power. French defeat in the war had sparked political instability, culminating in a [[revolution]] and the formation of the [[French Third Republic]]. Bismarck was wary of this during his later years and tried to placate the French by encouraging their overseas expansion. However, anti-German sentiment remained. A Franco–German colonial [[wiktionary:Entente|entente]] that was made in 1884 in protest of an Anglo–Portuguese agreement in West Africa proved short-lived after a pro-imperialist government under [[Jules Ferry]] in France fell in 1885. France quickly recovered from its defeat in the Franco-Prussian war. France paid its war remunerations and began to build its military strength again. Bismarck allowed the idea that Germany was planning a preventative war against France to be leaked through a German newspaper so that this recovery could not be realized. However, the [[Dreikaiserbund]] sided with France rather than with Germany, forcing Bismarck to back down. === Austrian-Serbian tensions and Bosnian Annexation Crisis === {{Main|May Overthrow|Pig War (Serbia)|Bosnian crisis}} [[File:Bosnia-Herzegovina and Sanjak of Novibazar.JPG|thumb|350px|Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Sanjak of Novibazar]] On night between June 10/11 1903, a group of Serbian officers assassinated unpopular King [[Alexander I of Serbia]]. The Serbian parliament elected [[Peter Karađorđević]] as the new king of Serbia. The consequence of this dynastic change had Serbia relying on Russia and France rather than on Austria-Hungary, as had been the case during rule of [[Obrenović]] dynasty. Serbian desire to relieve itself of Austrian influence provoked the [[Pig War (Serbia)|Pig War]], an economic conflict, from which Serbia eventually came out as the victor. [[Austria-Hungary]], desirous of solidifying its position in [[Bosnia-Herzegovina]], [[Austro-Hungarian annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina|annexed the provinces]] on October 6, 1908.<ref>Albertini, Luigi. ''Origins of the War of 1914'', Enigma Books, New York, 2005, Vol I, p 218-219</ref> The annexation set off a wave of protests and diplomatic maneuvers that became known as the [[Bosnian crisis]], or annexation crisis. The crisis continued until April 1909, when the annexation received grudging international approval through amendment of the [[Treaty of Berlin (1878)|Treaty of Berlin]]. During the crisis, relations between [[Austria-Hungary]], on the one hand, and [[Russia]] and [[Serbia]], on the other, were permanently damaged. After an exchange of letters outlining a possible deal, Russian Foreign Minister [[Alexander Izvolsky]] and Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Alois Aehrenthal met privately at Buchlau Castle in Moravia on September 16, 1908. At Buchlau the two agreed that Austria-Hungary could annex the Ottoman provinces of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which Austria-Hungary occupied and administered since 1878 under a mandate from the [[Treaty of Berlin (1878)|Treaty of Berlin]]. In return, Austria-Hungary would withdraw its troops from the Ottoman [[Sanjak of Novi Pazar|Sanjak of Novibazar]] and support Russia in its efforts to amend the Treaty of Berlin to allow Russian war ships to navigate the [[Bosporus|Straits of Constantinople]] during times of war. The two jointly agreed not to oppose Bulgarian independence. While Izvolsky moved slowly from capital to capital vacationing and seeking international support for opening the Straits, [[Bulgaria]] and Austria-Hungary moved swiftly. On October 5, Bulgaria declared its independence from the [[Ottoman Empire]]. The next day, Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina. On October 7, Austria-Hungary announced its withdrawal from the [[Sanjak]] of Novi Pazar. Russia, unable to obtain Britain's assent to Russia's Straits proposal, joined Serbia in assuming an attitude of protest. Britain lodged a milder protest, taking the position that annexation was a matter concerning Europe, not a bilateral issue, and so a conference should be held. France fell in line behind Britain. Italy proposed that the conference be held in Italy. German opposition to the conference and complex diplomatic maneuvering scuttled the conference. On February 20, 1909, the Ottoman Empire, acquiesced to the annexation and received ₤2.2 million from Austria-Hungary.<ref>Albertini, Luigi. ''Origins of the War of 1914'', Enigma Books, New York, 2005, Vol I, p 277</ref> Austria-Hungary began releasing secret documents in which Russia, since 1878, had repeatedly stated that Austria-Hungary had a free hand in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Sanjak of Novibazar. At the same time, Germany stated it would only continue its active involvement in negotiations if Russia accepted the annexation. Under these pressures, Russia agreed to the annexation,<ref>Albertini, Luigi. ''Origins of the War of 1914'', Enigma Books, New York, 2005, Vol I, p 287</ref> and persuaded Serbia to do the same. The Treaty of Berlin then was amended by correspondence between capitals from April 7 to April 19, 1909, to reflect the annexation. === The Balkan Wars (1912&ndash;1913) === {{Main|First Balkan War|Second Balkan War}} The [[Balkan Wars]] in 1912-1913 increased international tension between [[Russia]] and [[Austria-Hungary|Austria]]. It also led to a strengthening of Serbia and a weakening of [[Ottoman Empire|Turkey]] and [[Bulgaria]], who might otherwise have kept [[Serbia]] in check, thus disrupting the balance of power in Europe in favor of Russia. Russia initially agreed to avoid territorial changes, but later in 1912 supported Serbia's demand for an [[Durazzo|Albanian port]]. An international conference was held in London in 1912-1913 where it was agreed to create an independent [[Albania]], however both Serbia and Montenegro refused to comply. After an Austrian, and then an international naval demonstration in early 1912 and Russia's withdrawal of support Serbia backed down. Montenegro was not as compliant and on May 2, the Austrian council of ministers met and decided to give [[Montenegro]] a last chance to comply and, if it would not, then to resort to military action. However, seeing the Austrian military preparations, the Montenegrins requested the ultimatum be delayed and complied.<ref>Williamson, Samuel R. Jr., ''Austria-Hungary and the Origins of the First World War'', 125-140.</ref> The Serbian government, having failed to get Albania, now demanded that the other spoils of the [[First Balkan War]] be reapportioned and Russia failed to pressure Serbia to back down. Serbia and Greece allied against Bulgaria, which responded with a preemptive strike against their forces beginning the [[Second Balkan War]].<ref>Williamson, Samuel R. Jr., ''Austria-Hungary and the Origins of the First World War'', 143-145.</ref> The Bulgarian army crumbled quickly when Turkey and Romania joined the war. The Balkan Wars strained the German/Austro-Hungarian alliance. The attitude of the German government to Austrian requests of support against Serbia was initially both divided and inconsistent. After the [[German Imperial War Council of 8 December 1912]], it was clear that Germany was not ready to support Austria-Hungary in a war against Serbia and her likely allies. In addition, German diplomacy before, during, and after the Second Balkan War was pro-Greek and pro-Romanian and in opposition to Austria-Hungary's increasingly pro-Bulgarian views. The result was tremendous damage to Austro-German relations. Austrian foreign minister [[Leopold von Berchtold]] remarked to German ambassador Heinrich von Tschirschky in July 1913 that "Austria-Hungary might as well belong ‘to the other grouping’ for all the good Berlin had been".<ref>Williamson, Samuel R. Jr., ''Austria-Hungary and the Origins of the First World War'', 147-149.</ref> In September 1913, it was learned that Serbia was moving into Albania and Russia was doing nothing to restrain it, while the Serbian government would not guarantee to respect Albania's territorial integrity and suggested there would be some frontier modifications. In October 1913, the council of ministers decided to send Serbia a warning followed by an ultimatum: that Germany and Italy be notified of some action and asked for support, and that spies be sent to report if there was an actual withdrawal. Serbia responded to the warning with defiance and the Ultimatum was dispatched on October 17 and received the following day. It demanded that Serbia evacuate Albanian territory within eight days. Serbia complied, and the Kaiser made a congratulatory visit to Vienna to try to fix some of the damage done earlier in the year.<ref>Williamson, Samuel R. Jr., ''Austria-Hungary and the Origins of the First World War'', 151-154.</ref> The conflicts demonstrated that a localized war in the Balkans could alter the balance of power without provoking general war and reinforced the attitude in the Austrian government. This attitude had been developing since the [[Bosnian crisis|Bosnian annexation crisis]] that ultimatums were the only effective means of influencing Serbia and that Russia would not back its refusal with force. They also dealt catastrophic damage to the Habsburg economy.{{Citation needed|date=June 2011}} == Historiography == {{Main|Historiography of the Causes of World War I}} [[File:Europe as it should be map.jpg|thumb|[[Louis P. Bénézet]]'s map of "Europe As It Should Be" (1918), depicting imagined nations based on ethnic and linguistic criteria. Bénézet's book ''The World War and What was Behind It'' (1918) blamed on German aggression combined with perceived threats to the traditional social order from radicals and ethnic nationalists.]] During the period immediately following the end of hostilities, Anglo-American historians argued that Germany was solely responsible for the start of the war. However, academic work in the English-speaking world in the later 1920s and 1930s blamed participants more equally. Since 1960, the tendency has been to reassert the guilt of Germany, e.g., "The Berlin War Party," although some historians have argued for shared guilt or pointed to the Entente. == See also == {{Portal|World War I}} * [[American entry into World War I]] * [[Zimmermann Telegram]], a key cause for the above event * [[Causes of World War II]] * [[European Civil War]] * [[History of the Balkans]] == References == {{Reflist|30em}} == Further reading == {{Refbegin|colwidth=60em}} * [[Luigi Albertini|Albertini, Luigi]]. ''The Origins of the War of 1914'', trans. Isabella M. Massey, 3 vols., London, Oxford University Press, 1952 * [[Harry Elmer Barnes|Barnes, Harry Elmer]] ''The Genesis Of The World War; An Introduction To The Problem Of War Guilt'', New York, Knopf, 1929 {{oclc number|3300340}} *Barnes, Harry Elmer ''In Quest Of Truth And Justice: De-bunking The War Guilt Myth'', New York: Arno Press, 1972,1928 ISBN 0-405-00414-1 * Carter, Miranda ''Three Emperors: Three Cousins, Three Empires and the Road to the First World War''. London, Penguin, 2009. ISBN 978-0-670-91556-9 * [[William Engdahl|Engdahl, F.William]], ''A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order'' (1994) ISBN 0-7453-2310-3 * Evans, R. J. W. and Hartmut Pogge Von Strandman, eds. ''The Coming of the First World War'' (1990), essays by scholars from both sides ISBN 0-19-822899-6 * Fay, Sidney ''The Origins Of The World War'', New York: Macmillan, 1929, 1928 {{oclc|47080822}}. * [[Niall Ferguson|Ferguson, Niall]] ''The Pity of War'' Basic Books, 1999 ISBN 0-465-05712-8 * [[Fritz Fischer|Fischer, Fritz]] ''From Kaiserreich to Third Reich: Elements of Continuity in German history, 1871-1945'', Allen & Unwin, 1986 ISBN 0-04-943043-2 *Fischer, Fritz. ''Germany's Aims In the First World War'', W. W. Norton; 1967 ISBN 0-393-05347-4 *Fischer, Fritz. ''War of Illusions:German policies from 1911 to 1914'' Norton, 1975 ISBN 0-393-05480-2 *French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, [http://www.amazon.com/dp/B004J8HUMK ''The French Yellow Book'']: Diplomatic Documents (1914) *Fromkin, David. ''Europe's Last Summer: Who Started The Great War in 1914?,'' Knopf 2004 ISBN 0-375-41156-9 *Gilpin, Robert. ''War and Change in World Politics'' Cambridge University Press, 1981 ISBN 0-521-24018-2 * Hamilton, Richard and Herwig, Holger. ''Decisions for War, 1914-1917'' Cambridge University Press, 2004 ISBN 0-521-83679-4 * Henig, Ruth ''The Origins of the First World War'' (2002) ISBN 0-415-26205-4 * [[Andreas Hillgruber|Hillgruber, Andreas]] ''Germany and the Two World Wars'', Harvard University Press, 1981 ISBN 0-674-35321-8 * Rolf Hobson. ''Imperialism at Sea: Naval Strategic Thought, the Ideology of Sea Power, and the Tirpitz Plan'' (2002) ISBN 0-391-04105-3 * [[James Joll|Joll, James]]. ''The Origins of the First World War'' (1984) ISBN 0-582-49016-2 * Keiger, John F.V. ''France and the Origins of the First World War'', St. Martin's Press, 1983 ISBN 0-312-30292-4 * [[Paul Kennedy|Kennedy, Paul]] ''The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860-1914'', Allen & Unwin, 1980 ISBN 0-04-940060-6. *Kennedy, Paul M. (ed.). ''The War Plans of the Great Powers, 1880-1914.'' (1979) ISBN 0-04-940056-8 *Knutsen, Torbjørn L. ''The Rise and Fall of World Orders'' Manchester University Press, 1999 ISBN 0-7190-4057-4 *[http://simon31.narod.ru/article-eng.htm Kuliabin A. Semin S.Russia - a counterbalancing agent to the Asia. "Zavtra Rossii", #28, 17 July 1997] * Lee, Dwight E. ed. ''The Outbreak of the First World War: Who Was Responsible?'' (1958) {{oclc|66082903}}, readings from, multiple points of view * [[Lenin]], ''Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism'' Progress Publishers, Moscow, (1978) * Leslie, John (1993). "The Antecedents of Austria-Hungary’s War Aims," ''Wiener Beiträge zur Geschichte der Neuzeit'' Elisabeth Springer and Leopold Kammerhofer (Eds.), 20: 307-394. *Leuer, Eric A. ''Die Mission Hoyos. Wie österreichisch-ungarische Diplomaten den ersten Weltkrieg begannen'', Centaurus Verlag, Freiburg i.Br., 2011 ISBN 978-3-86226-048-5 *Lieven, D.C.B ''Russia and the Origins of the First World War'', St. Martin's Press, 1983 ISBN 0-312-69608-6 * Lynn-Jones, Sean M., and Stephen Van Evera (eds.) ''Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War'' (2nd ed., Princeton UP, 1991) ISBN 0-691-02349-2 * McMeekin, Sean. ''The Russian Origins of the First World War'' (Harvard University Press, 2011) * [[Arno J. Mayer|Mayer, Arno]] ''The Persistence of the Old Regime: Europe to the Great War'' Croom Helm, 1981 ISBN 0-394-51141-7 * Ponting, Clive (2002). ''Thirteen Days.'' Chatto & Windus. * Remak, Joachim ''The Origins of World War I, 1871-1914'', 1967 ISBN 0-03-082839-2 * [[Gerhard Ritter|Ritter, Gerhard]] "Eine neue Kriegsschuldthese?" pages 657-668 from ''Historische Zeitschrift'' Volume 194, June 1962, translated into English as "Anti-Fischer: A New War-Guilt Thesis?" pages 135-142 from ''The Outbreak of World War One: Causes and Responsibilities'', edited by Holger Herwig, 1997 *Schroeder, Paul W. (2000) ''[http://www.vlib.us/wwi/resources/archives/texts/t040829a/counter.html Embedded Counterfactuals and World War I as an Unavoidable War]'' (PDF file) * Snyder, Jack. "Civil—Military Relations and the Cult of the Offensive, 1914 and 1984," ''International Security'' 9 #1 (1984) *Steiner, Zara ''Britain and the Origins of the First World War'' Macmillan Press, 1977 ISBN 0-312-09818-9 *[[David Stevenson (WW1 historian)|Stevenson, David]]. ''Cataclysm: The First World War As Political Tragedy'' (2004) major reinterpretation ISBN 0-465-08184-3 *Stevenson, David. ''The First World War and International Politics'' (2005) *[[Hew Strachan|Strachan, Hew]]. ''The First World War: Volume I: To Arms'' (2004): the major scholarly synthesis. Thorough coverage of 1914; Also: ''The First World War'' (2004): a 385pp version of his multivolume history * [[A.J.P. Taylor|Taylor, A.J.P.]] ''War by Time-Table: How The First World War Began'', Macdonald & Co., 1969 ISBN 0-356-04206-5 *Tuchman, Barbara. ''[[The Guns of August]]'', New York. The Macmillan Company, 1962. Describes the opening diplomatic and military manoeuvres. *Turner, L. C. F. ''Origins of the First World War'', New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 1970. ISBN 0-393-09947-4 *Stephen Van Evera, "The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War," in ''International Security'' 9 #1 (1984) * [[Hans-Ulrich Wehler|Wehler, Hans-Ulrich]] ''The German Empire, 1871-1918'', Berg Publishers, 1985 ISBN 0-907582-22-2 * [[Richard Weikart|Weikart, Richard]], ''From Darwin to Hitler: Evolutionary ethics, Eugenics and Racism in Germany.'' 2004 ISBN 1-4039-6502-1 * [[Samuel R. Williamson, Jr.|Williamson, Samuel R.]] ''Austria-Hungary and the Origins of the First World War'', St. Martin's Press, 1991 ISBN 0-312-05239-1 ===Historiography=== * Cohen, Warren I. ''American Revisionists: The Lessons of Intervention in World War One'' (1967) * D'Agostino, Anthony. "The Revisionist Tradition in European Diplomatic History," ''Journal of the Historical Society,'' Spring 2004, Vol. 4 Issue 2, p255-287 {{doi|10.1111/j.1529-921X.2004.00098.x}} * Gillette, Aaron. "Why Did They Fight the Great War? A Multi-Level Class Analysis of the Causes of the First World War," ''History Teacher,'' November 2006, Vol. 40 Issue 1, pp 45–58 [http://www.jstor.org/pss/30036938 in JSTOR] * Marczewski, Jerzy. "German Historiography and the Problem of Germany's Responsibility for World War I," ''Polish Western Affairs,'' 1977, Vol. 12 Issue 2, pp 289–309 * Mombauer, Annika. "The First World War: Inevitable, Avoidable, Improbable Or Desirable? Recent Interpretations On War Guilt and the War's Origins," ''German History,'' (January 2007) 25#1 pp 78–95, [http://gh.oxfordjournals.org/content/25/1/78.extract online] * Nugent, Christine. "The Fischer Controversy: Historiographical Revolution or Just Another Historians' Quarrel?," ''Journal of the North Carolina Association of Historians,'' April 2008, Vol. 16, pp 77–114 * Seipp, Adam R. "Beyond the 'Seminal Catastrophe': Re-imagining the First World War," ''Journal of Contemporary History,'' October 2006, Vol. 41 Issue 4, pp 757–766 [http://www.jstor.org/pss/30036418 in JSTOR] * Showalter, Dennis. "The Great War and Its Historiography," ''Historian,'' Winter 2006, Vol. 68 Issue 4, pp 713–721 [http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6563.2006.00164.x/full online] * Smith, Leonard V. "The 'Culture De Guerre' and French Historiography of the Great War of 1914-1918," ''History Compass,'' November 2007, Vol. 5 Issue 6, pp 1967–1979 [http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1478-0542.2007.00484.x/full online] * Williamson, Jr., Samuel R. and Ernest R. May. "An Identity of Opinion: Historians and July 1914," ''Journal of Modern History,'' June 2007, Vol. 79 Issue 2, pp 335–387 [http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/519317 in JSTOR] comprehensive historiography {{Refend}} == External links == {{Commons category|World War I origins}} * [http://www.firstworldwar.com/origins/causes.htm Overview of Causes and Primary Sources] * [http://www.pbs.org/greatwar/historian/hist_stone_01_russia.html Russia - Getting Too Strong for Germany] by [[Norman Stone]] * [http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/wwone/origins_01.shtml The Origins of World War One]: An article by Dr. Gary Sheffield at the BBC History site. * [http://www.heeve.com/modern-history/causes-of-world-war-1.html What caused World War I]: Timeline of events and origins of WWI * [http://simon31.narod.ru/syndromeofsocialism.htm Kuliabin A. Semine S. Some of aspects of state national economy evolution in the system of the international economic order.- USSR ACADEMY OF SCIENCES FAR EAST DIVISION INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC & INTERNATIONAL OCEAN STUDIES Vladivostok, 1991] *[http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/31457 The Evidenc in the Case: A Discussion of the Moral Responsibility for the War of 1914, as Disclosed by the Diplomatic Records of England, Germany, Russia] by [[James M. Beck]] <!--spacing, please do not remove--> *[http://www.ariannascuola.eu/joomla/storia/la-narrazione-dei-fatti/la-prima-guerra-mondiale/222-la-prima-guerra-mondiale/308-le-cause-della-prima-guerra-mondiale-mappa-concettuale.html Concept Map of the Causes of WWI] {{World War I}} {{DEFAULTSORT:Causes Of World War I}} [[Category:Causes of war|World War I, Causes of]] [[Category:Causes of World War I|*]] {{Link GA|de}} {{Link FA|fr}} [[af:Gebeurtenisse wat tot die Eerste Wêreldoorlog gelei het]] [[bn:প্রথম বিশ্বযুদ্ধের কারণ]] [[cs:Příčiny první světové války]] [[de:Kriegsschuldfrage]] [[et:Esimese maailmasõja põhjused]] [[es:Kriegsschuldfrage]] [[fr:Kriegsschuldfrage]] [[hr:Uzroci Prvog svjetskog rata]] [[he:הגורמים למלחמת העולם הראשונה]] [[ja:第一次世界大戦の原因]] [[no:Bakgrunn til første verdenskrig]] [[pt:Causas da Primeira Guerra Mundial]] [[ro:Cauzele Primului Război Mondial]] [[ru:Причины Первой мировой войны]] [[sr:Узроци Првог светског рата]] [[sh:Uzroci Prvog svetskog rata]] [[sv:Bakgrund till första världskriget]] [[uk:Причини Першої світової війни]]'