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#REDIRECT[[Regional effects of climate change]]
{{see also|Climate variability and change#Variability between regions}}
[[File:Change in Average Temperature.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|Average global temperatures from 2010 to 2019 compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1978. Source: [[Goddard Institute for Space Studies|NASA]].]]

'''Regional effects of global warming''' are long-term significant changes in the expected patterns of average weather of a specific region due to [[global warming]]. The world average temperature is rising due to the [[greenhouse effect]] caused by increasing levels of [[greenhouse gases]], especially [[carbon dioxide]]. When the global temperature changes, the changes in climate are not expected to be uniform across the [[Earth]]. In particular, land areas change more quickly than oceans, and northern high [[latitudes]] change more quickly than the [[tropics]], and the margins of [[biome]] regions change faster than do their cores.

Regional [[effects of global warming]] vary in nature. Some are the result of a generalised global change, such as rising temperature, resulting in local effects, such as melting ice. In other cases, a change may be related to a change in a particular ocean current or [[weather system]]. In such cases, the regional effect may be disproportionate and will not necessarily follow the global trend. The increasing temperatures from greenhouse gases have been causing sea levels to rise for many years.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v541/n7637/full/541262d.html|title=Sea-level rise for centuries to come.|last=|first=|date=|website=Nature|access-date=2017-05-05}}</ref>

There are three major ways in which global warming will make changes to regional climate: melting or forming ice, changing the [[hydrological cycle]] (of [[evaporation]] and [[Precipitation (meteorology)|precipitation]]) and changing [[ocean current|currents in the ocean]]s and air flows in the atmosphere. The [[coast]] can also be considered a region, and will suffer severe impacts from [[sea level rise]].

[[File:Projected Change in Temperatures by 2090.svg|upright=1.35|thumb|right|[[Coupled Model Intercomparison Project|CMIP5]] average of climate model projections for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005, under [[Representative Concentration Pathway|low and high emission scenarios]].]]

The [[Arctic]], [[Africa]], small islands and [[Asia]]n [[river delta|megadelta]]s are regions that are likely to be especially affected by future climate change.<ref name="ar4 especially affected regions" /> [[Africa]] is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple existing stresses and low [[Climate adaptation|adaptive capacity]]. Climate change is projected to decrease [[freshwater]] availability in central, south, east and southeast Asia, particularly in large [[river basin]]s. With [[population growth]] and increasing demand from higher standards of living, this decrease could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s. Small islands, whether located in the tropics or higher latitudes, are already exposed to [[extreme weather]] events and changes in sea level. This existing exposure will likely make these areas sensitive to the effects of climate change.

== Background ==
With very high confidence, scientists have concluded that physical and biological systems on all continents and in most oceans had been affected by recent climate changes, particularly regional temperature increases.<ref name="rosenzweig observed impacts">{{citation|author=Rosenzweig |at=[http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch1s1-es.html Executive summary] |chapter=Chapter 1: Assessment of Observed Changes and Responses in Natural and Managed Systems |chapter-url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch1.html |display-authors=etal}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}}.</ref> Impacts include changes in regional rainfall patterns,<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Roxy|first1=M. K.|last2=Dasgupta|first2=Panini|last3=McPhaden|first3=Michael J.|last4=Suematsu|first4=Tamaki|last5=Zhang|first5=Chidong|last6=Kim|first6=Daehyun|date=November 2019|title=Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle|journal=Nature|volume=575|issue=7784|pages=647–651|doi=10.1038/s41586-019-1764-4|pmid=31776488|s2cid=208329374|issn=0028-0836}}</ref> earlier leafing of [[tree]]s and [[plant]]s over many regions; movements of species to higher latitudes and altitudes in the Northern Hemisphere; changes in [[bird migration]]s in Europe, North America and Australia; and shifting of the oceans' [[plankton]] and [[fish]] from cold- to warm-adapted communities.<ref name="nasa briefs">{{cite web|url=http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/rosenzweig_02/|title=Science Briefs: Warming Climate is Changing Life on Global Scale|author=Rosenzweig, C.|date=December 2008|publisher=Website of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies|accessdate=2011-07-08}}</ref>

The human influence on the climate can be seen in the geographical pattern of observed warming, with greater temperature increases over land and in [[polar region]]s rather than over the oceans.<ref name="nrc 2008 climate change brochure">{{cite book|url=http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/booklets/climate_change_2008_final.pdf |title=Understanding and Responding to Climate Change. A brochure prepared by the US National Research Council (US NRC) |author=US NRC |publisher=Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Academy of Sciences |year=2008|location=Washington DC}}</ref>{{Rp|6|date=November 2012}} Using models, it is possible to identify the human "signal" of global warming over both land and ocean areas.<ref name="nrc 2008 climate change brochure" />{{Rp|6|date=November 2012}}

==Regional impacts==
{{Main|Effects of global warming on human health}}
Highlights of recent and projected regional impacts are shown below:<ref name="us epa regional impacts">
{{Include-USGov
|agency=[[US Environmental Protection Agency]]
|source={{citation
| date=14 June 2012
| author=US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA)
| title= International Impacts & Adaptation: Climate Change: US EPA
| publisher=US EPA
| url= http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/international.html
}}
}}
</ref>

===Impacts on Africa===
{{main|Climate change in Africa|Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa}}
*[[Africa]] is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple existing stresses and low [[Climate adaptation|adaptive capacity]]. Existing stresses include poverty, political conflicts, and [[ecosystem]] degradation.
*By 2050, between 350 million and 601 million people are projected to experience increased [[water stress]] due to [[climate change]].
*Climate change is likely to lead to the increasing frequency and severity of Intense rainfall events across Africa. Since the 1980's climate change has resulted in the tripling in the frequency of extreme storms in the [[Sahel]] region of [[West Africa]]<ref>{{Cite web|last=Anonymous|date=2017-04-27|title=Global warming accounts for tripling of extreme West African Sahel storms, study shows|url=https://www.ceh.ac.uk/news-and-media/news/global-warming-accounts-tripling-extreme-west-african-sahel-storms-study-shows|access-date=2020-09-24|website=UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Taylor|first=Christopher M.|last2=Belušić|first2=Danijel|last3=Guichard|first3=Françoise|last4=Parker|first4=Douglas J.|last5=Vischel|first5=Théo|last6=Bock|first6=Olivier|last7=Harris|first7=Phil P.|last8=Janicot|first8=Serge|last9=Klein|first9=Cornelia|last10=Panthou|first10=Gérémy|date=2017|title=Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations|url=https://www.nature.com/articles/nature22069|journal=Nature|language=en|volume=544|issue=7651|pages=475–478|doi=10.1038/nature22069|issn=1476-4687|via=}}</ref>.
*Climate variability and change is projected to severely compromise [[climate change and agriculture|agricultural production]], including access to food, across Africa, which means there will be high food insecurity.
*Toward the end of the 21st century, projected [[sea level rise]] will likely affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations
*Climate variability and change can negatively impact [[human health]]. In many African countries, other factors already threaten human health. For example, [[malaria]] threatens health in [[southern Africa]] and the [[Eastern Highlands]].

===Impacts on Arctic and Antarctic===
*[[Climate change in the Arctic]] will likely reduce the thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets.
*Changes in natural ecosystems will likely have detrimental effects on many organisms including [[migratory bird]]s, [[mammal]]s, and higher predators. Climate change will likely cause changes in dominance structures in plant communities, with shrubs expanding <ref name="dx.doi.org">{{cite journal | last1 = Alatalo | first1 = JM | last2 = Little | first2 = CJ | last3 = Jägerbrand | first3 = AK | last4 = Molau | first4 = U | year = 2014 | title = Dominance hierarchies, diversity and species richness of vascular plants in an alpine meadow: contrasting short and medium term responses to simulated global change | journal = PeerJ | volume = 2 | issue = | page = e406 | doi = 10.7717/peerj.406 | pmid=24883260 | pmc=4034599}}</ref>
*In the Arctic, climate changes will likely reduce the extent of [[sea ice]] and [[permafrost]], which can have mixed effects on human settlements. Negative impacts could include damage to infrastructure and changes to winter activities such as ice fishing and ice road transportation. Positive impacts could include more navigable northern sea routes.
* Continued permafrost degradation will likely result in unstable infrastructure in Arctic regions, or Alaska before 2100. Thus, impacting roads, pipelines and buildings, as well as water distribution, and cause [[Slope stability|slope failures]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://news.uaf.edu/north_slope_permafrost_agu15/|year=2015|title=North Slope permafrost thawing sooner than expected|publisher=University of Alaska Fairbanks}}</ref>
*The reduction and melting of permafrost, sea level rise, and stronger storms may worsen coastal erosion.
*Terrestrial and marine ecosystems and habitats are projected to be at risk to invasive species, as climatic barriers are lowered in both polar regions.

===Impacts on Asia===
{{further|Effects of global warming on South Asia|Effects of global warming in China|Effects of global warming in Thailand}}
*[[Glacier]]s in [[Asia]] are melting at a faster rate than ever documented in historical records. Melting glaciers increase the risks of flooding and rock avalanches from destabilized slopes.
*Climate change is projected to decrease [[freshwater]] availability in central, south, east and southeast Asia, particularly in large [[river basin]]s. With [[population growth]] and increasing demand from higher standards of living, this decrease could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s.
*Increased [[flood]]ing from the sea and, in some cases, from rivers, threatens coastal areas, especially heavily populated delta regions in south, east, and southeast Asia.
*By the mid-21st century, crop yields could increase up to 20% in east and southeast Asia. In the same period, yields could decrease up to 30% in central and south Asia.
*Sickness and death due to [[diarrhoeal disease]] are projected to increase in east, south, and southeast Asia due to projected changes in the [[hydrological cycle]] associated with climate change.
*Agricultural demand from China's crops lead to land degradation and land modifications which in turn leads to increased greenhouse gas emissions. [[Environmental factor#Socioeconomic Drivers]]

===Impacts on Europe===
{{main|Climate change in Europe}}
*Wide-ranging impacts of climate change have already been documented in [[Europe]]. These impacts include retreating glaciers, longer growing seasons, species range shifts, and heat wave-related health impacts.
*Future impacts of climate change are projected to negatively affect nearly all European regions. Many economic sectors, such as agriculture and energy, could face challenges.
*In southern Europe, higher temperatures and drought may reduce water availability, [[hydropower]] potential, summer [[tourism]], and crop productivity.
*In central and eastern Europe, summer [[precipitation (meteorology)|precipitation]] is projected to decrease, causing higher water stress. Forest productivity is projected to decline. The frequency of [[peatland]] fires is projected to increase.
*In northern Europe, climate change is initially projected to bring mixed effects, including some benefits such as reduced demand for heating, increased crop yields, and increased forest growth. However, as climate change continues, negative impacts are likely to outweigh benefits. These include more frequent winter floods, endangered ecosystems, and increasing ground instability.

==={{anchor|South America}}Impacts on South America===
{{further|Climate change in Brazil}}
*By mid-century, increases in temperature and decreases in soil moisture are projected to cause savanna to gradually replace tropical forest in the eastern [[Amazon basin]].
*In drier areas, climate change will likely worsen drought, leading to [[Soil salinity|salinization]] (increased salt content) and desertification (land degradation) of agricultural land. The productivity of [[livestock]] and some important crops such as [[maize]] and [[coffee]] are projected to decrease, with adverse consequences for [[food security]]. In temperate zones, [[soybean]] yields are projected to increase.
*Sea level rise is projected to increase risk of flooding, displacement of people, salinization of drinking water resources, and [[coastal erosion]] in low-lying areas.
*Changes in precipitation patterns and the melting of glaciers are projected to significantly affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture, and energy generation.<ref>{{Cite book|url=http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/577701468018561725/pdf/555410PUB0Redu1EPI1958813201PUBLIC1.pdf|title=Reducing poverty, protecting livelihoods, and building assets in a changing climate : social implications of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean|last=Verner|first=Dorte|date=2010|publisher=World Bank|others=Verner, Dorte.|isbn=9780821383780|location=Washington, DC|pages=2|oclc=667295593}}</ref>

==={{anchor|North America}}Impacts on North America===
{{further|Global warming in Canada|Climate change in Mexico|Effects of climate change in the United States|Mesoamerican nephropathy}}
[[Image:Maps of projected changes in Northern Hemisphere seasonal mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century to the mid-21st century, based on SRES emissions scenario A1B.png|thumb|300px|left |alt=Refer to caption|[[Global climate model#Projections of future climate change|Projected change]] in seasonal mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century (1971-2000 average) to the middle 21st century (2051-2060).<ref name="gfdl northern hemisphere projection">
{{Include-USGov
|agency=[[NOAA]]
|source={{citation
| author=NOAA
| date= January 2007
| work=GFDL Climate Modeling Research Highlights
| title=Patterns of greenhouse warming
| url=http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/kd/pdf/gfdlhighlight_vol1n6.pdf
| volume=1
| issue=6
| publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) [[Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory]] (GFDL)
| location=Princeton, NJ, USA
}}
}}. Revision 2/2/2007, 8:50.08 AM.
</ref> The left panel shows changes for June–July–August (JJA) [[season]]al averages, and the right panel shows changes for December–January–February (DJF).<ref name="gfdl northern hemisphere projection"/> The change is in response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and [[aerosol]]s based on a "middle of the road" estimate of future emissions ([[Special Report on Emissions Scenarios|SRES]] [[Economics of global warming#Emissions scenarios|emissions scenario]] A1B).<ref name="gfdl northern hemisphere projection"/> Warming is projected to be larger over [[continent]]s than [[ocean]]s, and is largest at [[high latitude]]s of the [[Northern Hemisphere]] during Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF)<ref name="gfdl northern hemisphere projection"/> (Credit: NOAA [[Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory]]).<ref>
{{citation
| author=NOAA
| title=NOAA GFDL Climate Research Highlights Image Gallery: Patterns of Greenhouse Warming
| publisher=NOAA GFDL
| date=17 November 2012
| url=http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/patterns-of-greenhouse-warming-ar4
}}
</ref>]]
*Warming in western mountains is projected to decrease snowpack, increase winter flooding, and reduce summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources.
*Disturbances from pests, diseases, and fire are projected to increasingly affect forests, with extended periods of high fire risk and large increases in area burned.
*Moderate climate change in the early decades of the century is projected to increase aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 5-20%, but with important variability among regions. Crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range or that depend on highly utilized water resources will likely face major challenges.
*Increases in the number, intensity, and duration of heat waves during the course of the century are projected to further challenge cities that currently experience heat waves, with potential for adverse health impacts. Older populations are most at risk.
*Climate change will likely increasingly stress coastal communities and habitats, worsening the existing stresses of development and pollution.

As to 2019, climate change have already increased [[wildfires]] frequency and power in [[Canada]], especially in [[Alberta]].<ref>{{cite news |last1=Derworiz |first1=Colette |title='Can't be any more clear': Scientist says fires in Alberta linked to climate change |url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/can-t-be-any-more-clear-scientist-says-fires-in-alberta-linked-to-climate-change-1.4458503 |accessdate=12 June 2019 |agency=CTV News |date=June 9, 2019}}</ref>

===Impacts on Oceania===
{{main|Effects of global warming on Australia|Climate change in New Zealand}}
*[[Water security]] problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern [[Australia]], and in the northern and some eastern parts of [[New Zealand]].
*Significant [[Biodiversity loss|loss of biodiversity]] is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich sites, including the [[Great Barrier Reef]] and the [[Wet Tropics of Queensland]].
*Sea level rise and more severe [[storm]]s and coastal [[flooding]] will likely impact coastal areas. Coastal development and population growth in areas such as [[Cairns]] and [[Southeast Queensland]] (Australia) and [[Northland Region|Northland]] to [[Bay of Plenty]] (New Zealand), would place more people and [[infrastructure]] at risk.
*By 2030, increased [[drought]] and [[fire]] is projected to cause declines in agricultural and forestry production over much of southern and eastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand.
*Extreme storm events are likely to increase failure of [[floodplain]] protection and urban drainage and sewerage, as well as damage from storms and fires.
*More [[heat wave]]s may cause more deaths and more [[power outage|electrical blackout]]s.

===Impacts on Small Islands===
{{further|Effects of climate change on island nations}}
*Small islands, whether located in the tropics or higher latitudes, are already exposed to [[extreme weather]] events and changes in sea level. This existing exposure will likely make these areas sensitive to the effects of climate change.
*Deterioration in coastal conditions, such as beach erosion and [[coral bleaching]], will likely affect local resources such as fisheries, as well as the value of tourism destinations.
*Sea level rise is projected to worsen inundation, storm surge, erosion, and other [[coastal hazards]]. These impacts would threaten vital infrastructure, settlements, and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities.
*By mid-century, on many small islands (such as the [[Caribbean]] and [[Pacific]]), climate change is projected to reduce already limited water resources to the point that they become insufficient to meet demand during low-rainfall periods.
*Invasion by non-native species is projected to increase with higher temperatures, particularly in mid- and high-latitude islands.

====Inundation, displacement, and national sovereignty of small islands ====
According to scholar Tsosie, environmental disparities among disadvantaged communities including poor and racial minorities, extend to global inequalities between the developed and developing countries.<ref name="ref 10">{{cite journal|last=Tsosie|first=Rebecca|title=Indigenous People and Environmental Justice:The Impact of Climate Change|journal=University of Colorado Law Review|year=2007|volume=78|pages=1625}}</ref> For example, according to Barnett, J. and Adger, W.N. the projected damage to small islands and atoll communities will be a consequence of climate change caused by developing countries that will disproportionately affect these developing nations.<ref name="ref 9">{{cite journal|last=Barnett|first=Jon|author2=Adger, W. Neil |title=Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries|journal=Climatic Change|volume=61|issue=3|pages=321–337|doi=10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004559.08755.88|date=2003|s2cid=55644531}}</ref>

[[Sea-level rise]] and increased tropical cyclones are expected to place low-lying small islands in the Pacific, Indian, and Caribbean regions at risk of inundation and population displacement.<ref name="ref 9"/><ref name="ref 11">{{cite journal|last=Church|first=John A.|author2=White, Neil J. |author3=Hunter, John R. |title=Sea-level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands|journal=Global and Planetary Change|volume=53|issue=3|pages=155–168|doi=10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.04.001|date=2006|bibcode = 2006GPC....53..155C }}</ref><ref name="ref Mimura">{{cite journal|last=Mimura|first=N|title=Vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change|journal=Climate Research|volume=12|pages=137–143|doi=10.3354/cr012137|date=1999|bibcode=1999ClRes..12..137M|doi-access=free}}</ref>

According to N. Mimura's study on the vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change, financially burdened island populations living in the lowest-lying regions are most vulnerable to risks of inundation and displacement.<ref name="ref Mimura"/> On the islands of [[Fiji]], [[Tonga]] and western [[Samoa]] for example, high concentrations of migrants that have moved from outer islands inhabit low and unsafe areas along the coasts.<ref name="ref Mimura"/>

Atoll nations, which include countries that are composed entirely of the smallest form of islands, called motus, are at risk of entire population displacement.<ref name="ref 10"/><ref name="ref 9"/> These nations include [[Kiribati]], [[Maldives]], the [[Marshall Islands]], [[Tokelau]], and [[Tuvalu]].<ref name="ref 9"/><ref name="ref 11"/> According to a study on climate dangers to atoll countries, characteristics of atoll islands that make them vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts include their small size, their isolation from other land, their low income resources, and their lack of protective infrastructure.<ref name="ref 9"/>

A study that engaged the experiences of residents in atoll communities found that the cultural identities of these populations are strongly tied to these lands.<ref name=Mortreux>{{cite journal|last=Mortreux|first=Colette|author2=Barnett, Jon |title=Climate change, migration and adaptation in Funafuti, Tuvalu|journal=Global Environmental Change|volume=19|issue=1|pages=105–112|doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.09.006|date=2009}}</ref> The risk of losing these lands therefore threatens the national sovereignty, or right to self-determination, of Atoll nations.<ref name="ref 9"/> Human rights activists argue that the potential loss of entire atoll countries, and consequently the loss of cultures and indigenous lifeways cannot be compensated with financial means.<ref name="ref 10"/><ref name="ref 9"/> Some researchers suggest that the focus of international dialogues on these issues should shift from ways to relocate entire communities to strategies that instead allow for these communities to remain on their lands.<ref name="ref 10"/><ref name="Mortreux"/>

==Especially affected regions==
The [[Arctic]], [[Africa]], small islands and [[Asia]]n [[river delta|megadelta]]s are regions that are likely to be especially affected by future climate change.<ref name="ar4 especially affected regions"/>

Within other areas, some people are particularly at risk from future climate change, such as the poor, young [[child]]ren and the [[elderly]].<ref name="ar4 especially affected regions"/>

===The Arctic===
{{Further|Climate change in the Arctic}}
The Arctic is likely to be especially affected by climate change because of the high projected rate of regional warming and associated impacts.<ref name="ar4 especially affected regions">
{{cite book
| year=2007d
| author=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| contribution=3.3.3 Especially affected systems, sectors and regions
| title=Synthesis report
| series=Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
| url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains3-3-3.html
| publisher=IPCC
| location=Geneva, Switzerland
| accessdate=2011-09-15| author-link=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
}}
</ref> Temperature projections for the Arctic region were assessed by Anisimov ''et al.'' (2007).<ref>
{{cite book
| year=2007
| author=Anisimov, O.A.| contribution=15.3.2 Projected atmospheric changes
| title=Chapter 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic)
| series= Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
|editor1=Parry, M.L. |display-editors=et al
| url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch15s15-3-2.html
| publisher=Print version: CUP. This version: IPCC website
| location=Cambridge University Press (CUP): Cambridge, UK
| isbn=978-0-521-88010-7
| accessdate=2011-09-15|display-authors=etal}}
</ref> These suggested areally averaged warming of about 2&nbsp;°C to 9&nbsp;°C by the year 2100. The range reflects different projections made by different [[climate model]]s, run with different forcing [[climate change scenario|scenarios]]. [[Radiative forcing]] is a measure of the effect of natural and human activities on the climate. Different forcing scenarios reflect, for example, different projections of future human [[greenhouse gas]] emissions.

===Africa===
{{See also|Climate change in Africa}}
Africa is likely to be the continent most vulnerable to climate change.<ref>
{{cite book
| year=2007
| author=Schneider, S.H.| contribution=19.3.3 Regional vulnerabilities
| title=Chapter 19: Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change
| series= Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
|editor1=Parry, M.L. |display-editors=et al
| url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch19s19-3-3.html
| publisher=Print version: CUP. This version: IPCC website
| location=Cambridge University Press (CUP): Cambridge, UK
| isbn=978-0-521-88010-7
| accessdate=2011-09-15|display-authors=etal}}
</ref> With high confidence, Boko ''et al.'' (2007) projected that in many African countries and regions, agricultural production and [[food security]] would probably be severely compromised by climate change and climate variability.<ref>
{{cite book
| year=2007
| author=Boko, M.| contribution=Executive summary
| title=Chapter 9: Africa
| series= Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
|editor1=Parry, M.L. |display-editors=et al
| url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch9s9-es.html
| publisher=Print version: CUP. This version: IPCC website
| location=Cambridge University Press (CUP): Cambridge, UK
| isbn=978-0-521-88010-7
| accessdate=2011-09-15|display-authors=etal}}
</ref>

The [[United Nations Environment Programme]] (UNEP, 2007) produced a post-[[war|conflict]] environmental assessment of [[Sudan]].<ref>
{{citation
| date=June 2007
| title=Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
| author=UNEP
| url=http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/sudan/00_fwd.pdf
| isbn=978-92-807-2702-9
| publisher=UNEP
| location=Nairobi, Kenya
}}</ref> According to [[United Nations Environment Programme|UNEP]] (2007), environmental stresses in Sudan are interlinked with other social, economic and political issues, such as [[refugee|population displacement]] and competition over [[natural resource]]s. Regional climate change, through decreased [[Precipitation (meteorology)|precipitation]], was thought to have been one of the factors which contributed to the [[war in Darfur|conflict in Darfur]]. Along with other [[environmental issues]], climate change could negatively affect future development in Sudan. One of the recommendations made by UNEP (2007) was for the international community to assist Sudan in [[climate change adaptation|adapting]] to climate change.<ref>
{{citation
| chapter=Ch 3. Natural Disasters
| title=Natural Disasters and Desertification
| chapter-url=http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/sudan/03_disasters.pdf
}}, in {{harvnb|UNEP|2007|p=69}}
</ref>

===Small islands===
Small islands are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Harsh and extreme weather conditions is a part of everyday life however as the climate changes these small islands find it difficult to adapt to the rising scale<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/island-nations-maldives-climate-change/}}</ref> and intensity of storm surges, salt water intrusion and coastal destruction.

=== Middle East ===
{{Main|Climate Change in Middle East and North Africa}}
The region of Middle East is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. The impacts include increase in drought conditions, aridity, heatwaves, sea level rise. If greenhouse gas emissions will not be reduced the region can became uninhabitable before the year 2100<ref>{{cite web |last1=Broom |first1=Douglas |title=How the Middle East is suffering on the front lines of climate change |url=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/middle-east-front-lines-climate-change-mena/ |website=World Economic Forum |accessdate=4 February 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Gornall |first1=Jonathan |title=With climate change, life in the Gulf could become impossible |url=https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/opinion/with-climate-change-life-in-the-gulf-could-become-impossible/ |accessdate=4 February 2020 |agency=Euroactive |date=24 April 2019}}</ref>

==Ice-cover changes==
Permanent ice cover on land is a result of a combination of low peak temperatures and sufficient [[Precipitation (meteorology)|precipitation]]. Some of the coldest places on Earth, such as the dry valleys of Antarctica, lack significant ice or snow coverage due to a lack of snow. Sea ice however maybe formed simply by low temperature, although precipitation may influence its stability by changing [[albedo]], providing an insulating covering of snow and affecting heat transfer. Global warming has the capacity to alter both precipitation and temperature, resulting in significant changes to ice cover. Furthermore, the behaviour of [[ice sheets]], [[ice caps]] and [[glaciers]] is altered by changes in temperature and precipitation, particularly as regards the behaviour of water flowing into and through the ice.

===Arctic sea ice===
[[File:2007 Arctic Sea Ice.jpg|thumb|[[Arctic sea ice]] minima in 2005, 2007, and the 1979-2000 average.]]
{{main|Arctic shrinkage}}
Recent projections of [[sea ice]] loss suggest that the [[Arctic ocean]] will likely be free of summer [[sea ice]] sometime between 2059 and 2078.<ref>{{Cite journal| first1 = J.| last2 = Hall| first2 = A.| first3 = X. | title = September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100| journal = [[Nature Geoscience ]]| volume = 2| last3 = Qu | pages = 341| last1 = Boé| year = 2009 | doi = 10.1038/ngeo467|bibcode = 2009NatGe...2..341B | issue=5}}</ref>

Models showing decreasing sea ice also show a corresponding decrease in [[polar bear]] habitat.<ref name="polar bear usgs">{{cite web|url=http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/special/polar_bears/docs/USGS_PolarBear_DeWeaver_GCM-Uncertainty.pdf|title=Uncertainty in Climate Model Projections of Arctic Sea Ice Decline: An Evaluation Relevant to Polar Bears|last=DeWeaver|first=Eric|year=2007|work=USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Polar Bear Listing Decision|publisher=[[United States Geological Survey|USGS]] Administrative Report|pages=40|accessdate=2009-04-05|url-status=dead|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20090509072101/http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/special/polar_bears/docs/USGS_PolarBear_DeWeaver_GCM-Uncertainty.pdf|archivedate=2009-05-09}}</ref> Some scientists see the polar bear as a species which will be affected first and most severely by global warming because it is a top-level predator in the Arctic,<ref>{{cite journal|last=Stirling|first=I|author2=Derocher, AE |year=1993|title=Possible impacts of climatic warming on polar bears|journal=[[Arctic (journal)|Arctic]] |volume=46|issue=3|pages=240–245|doi=10.14430/arctic1348|s2cid=56251757|url=https://semanticscholar.org/paper/ea73a61e464f6e38d8db4d6e7979757867d1bd53}}</ref> which is projected to warm more than the global average.<ref>{{cite book | last = Hassol | first = Susan | title = Impacts of a warming Arctic : Arctic Climate Impact Assessment | publisher = Cambridge University Press | location = Cambridge, U.K. New York, N.Y | year = 2004 | isbn = 9780521617789 | url-access = registration | url = https://archive.org/details/impactsofwarming0000hass }}</ref> Recent reports show polar bears resorting to cannibalism,<ref>{{cite journal|doi=10.1007/s00300-006-0142-5|title=Recent observations of intraspecific predation and cannibalism among polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea|year=2006|last1=Amstrup|first1=Steven C.|last2=Stirling|first2=Ian|last3=Smith|first3=Tom S.|last4=Perham|first4=Craig|last5=Thiemann|first5=Gregory W.|journal=Polar Biology|volume=29|pages=997–1002|issue=11|s2cid=34780227}}</ref> and scientists state that these are the only instances that they have observed of polar bears stalking and killing one another for food.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.usatoday.com/weather/research/2006-06-13-polar-bear-cannibalism_x.htm|title=Study: Polar bears may turn to cannibalism|last=Jolling|first=Dan|date=13 June 2008|publisher=[[USA Today]] |accessdate=2009-04-05}}</ref>

===Antarctica===
{{further|Global warming in Antarctica}}
[[File:Larsen B collapse.jpg|thumb|The collapse of Larsen B, showing the diminishing extent of the shelf from 1998 to 2002]]
The [[Antarctic peninsula]] has lost a number of [[ice shelf|ice shelves]] recently. These are large areas of floating ice which are fed by glaciers. Many are the size of a small country. The sudden collapse of the [[Larsen B]] [[ice shelf]] in 2002<ref name=Hulbe>Hulbe, Christina (2002) "Larsen Ice Shelf 2002, warmest summer on record leads to disintegration" website of [[Portland State University]], [http://web.pdx.edu/~chulbe/science/Larsen/larsen2002.html online]</ref> took 5 weeks or less and may have been due to global warming.<ref>[http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2001/14.html Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapse Triggered By Warmer Summers] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071230140749/http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2001/14.html |date=2007-12-30 }} Office of News Services, [[University of Colorado at Boulder]], Jan. 16, 2001</ref> Larsen B had previously been stable for up to 12,000 years.<ref name=Queens>{{cite journal |author1=Domack E |authorlink1=Eugene Domack |author2=Duran D |author3=Leventer A |author4=Ishman S |author5=Doane S |author6=Scott McCallum |author7=Amblas D |author8=Ring J |author9=Gilbert R |author10=Prentice M |title=Stability of the Larsen B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene epoch |journal=[[Nature (journal)|Nature]] |volume=436 |issue=7051 |pages=681–5 |date=4 August 2005 |doi=10.1038/nature03908 |lay-url=[http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-08/qu-isd080305.php Ice Shelf disintegration threatens environment, Queen's study] |laysource=[[Eurekalert!]] |laydate=3 August 2005 |pmid=16079842 |bibcode = 2005Natur.436..681D |s2cid=4325739 }}</ref>

Concern has been expressed about the stability of the [[West Antarctic ice sheet]]. A collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet could occur "within 300 years [as] a worst-case scenario. Rapid sea-level rise (>1 m per century) is more likely to come from the WAIS than from the [Greenland ice sheet]."<ref name=lenton>{{Cite journal | last1 = Lenton | first1 = T. M. | last2 = Held | first2 = H. | last3 = Kriegler | first3 = E. | last4 = Hall | first4 = J. W. | last5 = Lucht | first5 = W. | last6 = Rahmstorf | first6 = S. | last7 = Schellnhuber | first7 = H. J. | doi = 10.1073/pnas.0705414105 | title = Inaugural Article: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system | journal = Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | volume = 105 | issue = 6 | pages = 1786–1793 | year = 2008 | pmid = 18258748| pmc = 2538841|bibcode = 2008PNAS..105.1786L }}</ref>

===Greenland===
As the Greenland ice sheet loses mass from [[Ice calving|calving]] of icebergs as well as by melting of ice, any such processes tend to accelerate the loss of the ice sheet.<ref>{{Cite journal| last1 = Zwally | first1 = J.| last2 = Abdalati | first2 = W. | authorlink2=Waleed Abdalati| last3 = Herring | first3 = T.| last4 = Larson | first4 = K.| last5 = Saba | first5 = J.| last6 = Steffen | first6 = K.| title = Surface melt-induced acceleration of Greenland ice-sheet flow| journal = [[Science (journal)|Science]]| volume = 297| issue = 5579| pages = 218–222| date=Jul 2002 | issn = 0036-8075| pmid = 12052902| doi = 10.1126/science.1072708|bibcode = 2002Sci...297..218Z | s2cid = 37381126}}</ref>

The IPCC suggest that Greenland will become ice free at around 5 [[Celsius]] degrees over [[pre-industrial]] levels,{{Citation needed|date=March 2009}} but subsequent research comparing data from the [[Eemian]] period suggests that the ice sheet will remain at least in part at these temperatures.<ref>{{Cite journal| first1 = D.| title = Greenland ice cores tell tales on the Eemian period and beyond| journal = IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science| volume = 6| issue = 1| page = 012008| year = 2009| last1 = Dahl-Jensen| authorlink1 = Dorthe Dahl-Jensen| doi = 10.1088/1755-1307/6/1/012008|bibcode = 2009E&ES....6a2008D | doi-access = free}}</ref> The volume of ice in the [[Greenland]] sheet is sufficient to cause a global [[sea level rise]] of 7 meters. It would take 3,000 years to completely melt the Greenland ice sheet.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/adcc/BookCh4Jan2006.pdf |title=The Role of Sea-Level Rise and the Greenland Ice Sheet in Dangerous Climate Change: Implications for the Stabilisation of Climate |last=Lowe |first=Jason |author2=Jonathan M. Gregory |author3=Jeff Ridley |author4=Philippe Huybrechts |author5=Robert J. Nicholls |author6=Matthew Collins |date=January 2006 |publisher=[[UK Met Office]] |accessdate=2009-03-29 |url-status=dead |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20090327043445/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/adcc/BookCh4Jan2006.pdf |archivedate=March 27, 2009 }}</ref> This figure was derived from the assumed levels of [[greenhouse gases]] over the duration of the experiment. In reality, these greenhouse gas levels are of course affected by future emissions and may differ from the assumptions made in the model.

===Glaciers===
{{main|Retreat of glaciers since 1850}}
Glacier retreat does not only affect the communities and ecosystems around the actual glacier but the entire downstream region. The most notable example of this is in India, where river systems such as the [[Indus]] and [[Ganges]] are ultimately fed by [[glacial meltwater]] from the [[Himalayas]]. Loss of these glaciers will have dramatic effects on the downstream region, increasing the risk of drought as lower flows of [[meltwater]] reduce summer [[river flows]] unless summer [[Precipitation (meteorology)|precipitation]] increases. Altered patterns of flooding can also affect [[soil fertility]].<ref>{{cite book|title=Wetland soils: characterization, classification, and utilization: proceedings of a workshop held 26 March to 5 April 1984
|author=Stephen J. Banta|publisher=[[International Rice Research Institute]]|year=1985|
isbn=978-971-10-4139-7}}</ref>

The [[Tibetan Plateau]] contains the world's third-largest store of ice. Qin Dahe, the former head of the [[China Meteorological Administration]], said that the recent fast pace of melting and warmer temperatures will be good for agriculture and tourism in the short term; but issued a strong warning:

<blockquote>"Temperatures are rising four times faster than elsewhere in China, and the Tibetan glaciers are retreating at a higher speed than in any other part of the world... In the short term, this will cause lakes to expand and bring floods and mudflows. . . . In the long run, the glaciers are vital lifelines for Asian rivers, including the [[Indus]] and the [[Ganges]]. Once they vanish, water supplies in those regions will be in peril."<ref>[https://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g1eE4Xw3njaW1MKpJRYOch4hOdLQ Global warming benefits to Tibet: Chinese official. Reported 18/Aug/2009.]</ref></blockquote>

===Permafrost regions===
{{See also|Climate change in Russia}}
Regions of [[permafrost]] cover much of the Arctic. In many areas, permafrost is melting, leading to the formation of a [[bog]]gy, undulating landscape filled with [[thermokarst]] lakes and distinctive patterns of [[drunken trees]]. The process of permafrost melting is complex and poorly understood since existing models do not include [[climate change feedback|feedback effects]] such as the heat generated by decomposition.<ref>{{cite news |author=Pearce, Fred |title=Arctic meltdown is a threat to humanity |url=https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20127011.500-arctic-meltdown-is-a-threat-to-humanity.html?full=true |agency= |work=[[New Scientist]] |issue=2701 |publisher= |pages= |page= |date=28 March 2009 }}</ref>{{Citation needed|reason=Complex? Why? AFAIK it's just a conductive thermal profile that's forced by variations in surface temperature, and in which one needs to account for latent heat of fusion, which is pretty easily solved|date=March 2009}}

Arctic permafrost soils are estimated to store twice as much carbon as is currently present in the atmosphere in
the form of CO2. Warming in the Arctic is causing increased emissions of CO2 and [[Methane]] (CH<sub>4</sub>).<ref>[http://hqweb.unep.org/yearbook/2010/ UNEP Year Book2010, An Overview of Our Changing Environment], [[United Nations Environment Programme]] 2010 page 36</ref>

==Precipitation and vegetation changes==
[[File:Caatinga.jpg|thumb|The Eastern [[Amazon rainforest]] may be replaced by [[Caatinga]] vegetation as a result of global warming.]]
Much of the effect of [[global warming]] is felt through its influence on [[Precipitation (meteorology)|rain and snow]]. Regions may become wetter, drier, or may experience changes in the intensity of precipitation - such as moving from a damp climate to one defined by a mixture of floods and droughts. These changes may have a very severe impact on both the natural world and human civilisation, as both naturally occurring and farmed plants experience regional climate change that is beyond their ability to tolerate.

A U.S. [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] (NOAA) analysis published in the [[Journal of Climate]] October 2011, and cited on [[Joseph J. Romm]]'s, climateprogress.org, found that increasing [[drought]]s in the [[Middle East]] during the wintertime when the region traditionally receives most of its rainfall to replenish aquifers, and [[Human impact on the environment|anthropogenic]] climate change is partly responsible. Per [[Earth System Research Laboratory]]'s Martin Hoerling “The magnitude and frequency of the drying that has occurred is too great to be explained by natural variability alone,” and “This is not encouraging news for a region that already experiences water stress, because it implies natural variability alone is unlikely to return the region’s climate to normal.” the lead author of the paper.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/08/opinion/sunday/friedman-the-other-arab-spring.html ''The Other Arab Spring''] April 7, 2012 [[Thomas L. Friedman]] New York Times Op Ed</ref> Twelve of the world's fifteen most water-scarce countries — [[Bahrain]], [[Qatar]], [[Algeria]], [[Libya]], [[Tunisia]], [[Jordan]], [[Saudi Arabia]], [[Yemen]], [[Oman]], the [[United Arab Emirates]], [[Kuwait]], [[Israel]] and [[State of Palestine|Palestine]] — are in the Middle East.

===Arctic and Alpine regions===
Polar and alpine ecosystems are assumed to be particularly vulnerable to climate change as their organisms dwell at temperatures just above the zero degree threshold for a very short summer growing season. Predicted changes in climate over the next 100 years are expected to be substantial in arctic and sub-arctic regions. Already there is evidence of upward shifts of plants in mountains and in arctic shrubs are predicted to increase substantially to warming <ref name="dx.doi.org"/>

===Amazon===
One modeling study suggested that the extent of the [[Amazon rainforest]] may be reduced by 70% if [[global warming]] continues unchecked, due to regional [[Precipitation (meteorology)|precipitation]] changes that result from weakening of large-scale [[tropical]] circulation.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.geo.cornell.edu/geology/faculty/Cook/SAFuture_final.pdf|title=Effects of 21st Century Climate Change on the Amazon rainforest|last=Cook|author2=Vizy |date=June 2007|work=[[Journal of Climate]]|accessdate=2009-03-29}}</ref>

===North America===
By the year 2100, severe storms that used to happen on average once every 20, 50, or 100 years ("twenty-year," "fifty-year," and "hundred-year storms") may happen every couple of years, according to a study published in June 2020 in ''Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.''<ref>{{Cite web|last=Berwyn|first=Bob|date=2 June 2020|title=New Study Shows Global Warming Intensifying Extreme Rainstorms Over North America|url=https://insideclimatenews.org/news/01062020/extreme-rain-study-climate-change|url-status=live|archive-url=|archive-date=|access-date=2020-06-08|website=InsideClimate News|language=en-US}}</ref>

===Sahara===
<ref>{{Cite book|work=Antagonism on YouTube : Metaphor in Online Discourse |publisher=Bloomsbury Academic |isbn=9781472566676 |doi=10.5040/9781472593740.ch-002 |title=Antagonism on You ''Tube'' : Metaphor in Online Discourse |year = 2014 |chapter=YouTube as a Field: Life in a YouTube Community}}</ref>
Some studies suggest that the [[Sahara desert]] may have been more vegetated during the warmer Mid-Holocene period, and that future warming may result in similar patterns.<ref>{{cite journal|title=The Greening of the Sahara during the Mid-Holocene: Results of an Interactive Atmosphere-Biome Model|last=Claussen|first=Martin|author2=Veronika Gayler |date=Sep 1997|journal=Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters |pages=369–377|jstor=2997337|volume=6|issue=5|doi=10.2307/2997337}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| first1 = M.| first2 = V.| first3 = A.| first4 = C.| first5 = V. | title = Climate Change in Northern Africa: the Past is Not the Future | journal = Climatic Change | volume = 57| last1 = Claussen | pages = 99–06 | year = 2003 | doi = 10.1023/A:1022115604225| last2 = Brovkin| last3 = Ganopolski| last4 = Kubatzki| last5 = Petoukhov| s2cid = 53386559| url = http://epic.awi.de/13575/1/Cla2003b.pdf}}</ref><ref name="News.nationalgeographic.com">{{cite web|url=http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/07/090731-green-sahara.html |title=Sahara Desert Greening Due to Climate Change? |publisher=News.nationalgeographic.com |accessdate=12 June 2010}}</ref>

===Sahel===
Some studies have found a greening of the Sahel due to global warming.<ref name="News.nationalgeographic.com"/> Other climate models predict "a doubling of the number of anomalously dry years [in the Sahel] by the end of the century".<ref name=lenton />

===Desert expansion===
Expansion of [[subtropical]] [[deserts]] is expected as a result of global warming, due to expansion of the [[Hadley Cell]].<ref>{{Cite journal| first1 = J.| last2 = Vecchi| first2 = G. A.| first3 = T. | title = Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming| journal = Geophysical Research Letters | volume = 34 | year = 2007| issue = 6| last3 = Reichler | pages = L06805| last1 = Lu | doi = 10.1029/2006GL028443| bibcode=2007GeoRL..3406805L| s2cid = 15099959| url = https://semanticscholar.org/paper/a43324f6a8c03ff440c0659edf1d5cda618bbeea}}</ref>

==Coastal regions==
[[File:Sea level temp 140ky.gif|thumb|Past [[sea-level]] changes and relative [[temperatures]]. [[Global warming]] is expected to dramatically affect sea level.]]
Global sea level is [[current sea level rise|currently rising]] due to the [[thermal expansion]] of [[water]] in the [[ocean]]s<ref>{{Cite journal| first1 = T. M. L.| first2 = S. C. B. | title = Thermal expansion of sea water associated with global warming | journal = [[Nature (journal)|Nature]] | volume = 330| last1 = Wigley | pages = 127–131 | year = 1987 | doi = 10.1038/330127a0| last2 = Raper|bibcode = 1987Natur.330..127W | issue=6144| s2cid = 4358996 | url = https://zenodo.org/record/1233063}}</ref> and the addition of water from [[ice sheets]].<ref>{{Cite journal| first1 = M.| first2 = K. | title = Late Pleistocene and Holocene sea-level change in the Australian region and mantle rheology | journal = Geophysical Journal International | volume = 96| issue = 3 | pages = 497–517 | year = 1989| last1 = Nakada | doi = 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1989.tb06010.x| last2 = Lambeck|bibcode = 1989GeoJI..96..497N | doi-access = free }}</ref> Because of this, there low-lying [[coastal]] areas, many of which are [[population density|heavily populated]], are at risk of flooding.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Coastal_regions_statistics|title=Coastal regions statistics - Statistics explained|date=10 December 2010|work=European Commission [[Eurostat]] |publisher=European Commission|accessdate=2011-01-15}}</ref><ref>{{cite news| url=http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/report-maps-u-s-risks-from-rising-seas-in-warming-world/ | work=The New York Times | first=Andrew C. | last=Revkin | title=Report Maps U.S. Risks from Rising Seas in Warming World | date=2012-03-14}}</ref>

Areas threatened by [[current sea level rise]] include [[Tuvalu]]<ref>{{Unreliable source?|date=March 2009}}{{cite web|url=http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/03/asia/pacific.php|title=Rising sea levels threaten small Pacific island nations|last=Adams|first=Jonathan|date=May 3, 2007|work=[[International Herald Tribune]]|accessdate=2009-03-29}}</ref> and the [[Maldives]].<ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3930765.stm|title=Maldives: Paradise soon to be lost|last=Bryant|first=Nick|date=28 July 2004|work=[[BBC News]] website|publisher=BBC|accessdate=2009-03-29}}</ref>{{Unreliable source?|date=March 2009}} Regions that are prone to [[storm surge]]s, such as [[London]], are also threatened.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nce.co.uk/thames-flood-barrier-upgrade-ruled-out/302651.article|title=thames-flood-barrier-upgrade-ruled-out|last=Rowson|first=Jessica|work=[[New Civil Engineer]]|accessdate=2009-03-29}}</ref>

With very high confidence, IPCC (2007) projected that by the 2080s, many millions more people would experience floods every year due to sea level rise.<ref>{{cite web
|url= http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains3-3-1.html
|title=3.3.1 Impacts on systems and sectors. In (section): Synthesis Report. In: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.))
|author=IPCC
|year=2007
|publisher=Book version: IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. This version: IPCC website
|accessdate=2010-04-10}}</ref>
The numbers affected were projected to be largest in the densely populated and low-lying megadeltas of Asia and Africa. Small islands were judged to be especially vulnerable.

==Ocean effects==
===North Atlantic region===
{{see also|Shutdown of thermohaline circulation}}
It has been suggested that a shutdown of the Atlantic [[thermohaline circulation]] may result in relative cooling of the [[North Atlantic]] region by up to 8C in certain locations.<ref>{{cite journal |doi=10.1023/A:1016168827653 |title=Global Climatic Impacts of a Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation |vauthors=Vellinga M, Wood RA |journal=[[Climatic Change]] |volume=54 |pages=251–267 |year=2002 |issue=3|s2cid=153075940 }}</ref> Recent research suggests that this process is not currently underway.<ref>{{Cite journal| first1 = Q.| title = Ocean circulation noisy, not stalling| journal = Nature| volume = 448| issue = 7156| last1 = Schiermeier| pages = 844–845| date=Aug 2007 | issn = 0028-0836| pmid = 17713489| doi = 10.1038/448844b|bibcode = 2007Natur.448..844S | doi-access = free}}</ref>

== Tropical surface and troposphere temperatures ==
In the tropics, basic physical considerations, [[climate model]]s, and multiple independent data sets indicate that the warming trend due to well-mixed [[greenhouse gases]] should be faster in the [[troposphere]] than at the surface.<ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Santer | first1 = B. D. | authorlink10 = Phil Jones (climatologist) | authorlink15 = Gavin Schmidt | last2 = Thorne | first2 = P. W. | last3 = Haimberger | first3 = L. | last4 = Taylor | first4 = K. E. | last5 = Wigley | first5 = T. M. L. | last6 = Lanzante | first6 = J. R. | last7 = Solomon | first7 = S. | last8 = Free | first8 = M. | last9 = Gleckler | first9 = P. J. | last10 = Jones | first10 = P. D. | last11 = Karl | first11 = T. R. | last12 = Klein | first12 = S. A. | last13 = Mears | first13 = C. | last14 = Nychka | first14 = D. | last15 = Schmidt | first15 = G. A. | last16 = Sherwood | first16 = S. C. | last17 = Wentz | first17 = F. J. | year = 2008 | title = Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere | url = http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/6558/1/PT_consistency%202008.pdf| journal = [[International Journal of Climatology]] | volume = 28 | issue = 13| pages = 1703–1722 | doi=10.1002/joc.1756|bibcode = 2008IJCli..28.1703S }}</ref>

==See also==
{{portal|Climate change}}
*[[Arctic methane release]]
*[[Climate change in the Arctic]]
*[[Effects of global warming]]
*[[Intertropical Convergence Zone]] (ITCZ)
*[[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report]]
*[[Sea level rise]]
*[[Small Island Developing States]]
*[[Shutdown of thermohaline circulation]]

==References==
{{reflist|colwidth=30em}}

==External links==
{{refbegin}}
*[http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_sr/?src=/climate/ipcc/regional/index.htm IPCC Special Report on The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability]
*[http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter11.pdf IPCC AR4 Regional Climate Projections]
{{refend}}
*[http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/policy-relevant/obs-projections-impacts Impacts of global warming by country] from the [[Met Office Hadley Centre]]
*[https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/extremeice/thin_01_q_300.html Video on the effects of global warming in the polar region Bering Sea]
{{Global warming|state=expanded}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Regional Effects Of Global Warming}}
[[Category:Regional effects of climate change| ]]
[[Category:Climate change by country| ]]
[[Category:Effects of climate change]]
[[Category:Sustainable Development Goal 13]]

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