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Frequently asked questions

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Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?

A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.^[1]

Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?

A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."^[2]

Q3: Can't the increase of CO₂ be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?

A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,^[3]^[4] including academically trained ones,^[5]^[6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:

Current human emissions of CO₂ are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO₂ levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions.^[7] This is easily seen in a graph of CO₂ concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend.
Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels.^[8]
Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels.^[9]
If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic).^[10]

Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?

A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum.

Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?

A5: Two reasons:

There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly.
However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations.^[11] Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import.

Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?

A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO₂ and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess.

Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO₂?

A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂ (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.

Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?

A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.^[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change.

Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?

A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.^[12] More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;^[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend.

Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?

A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."^[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.

While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:

A map of the Eastern Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A map of the Western Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located

Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?

A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties.

Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?

A12: Measurements show that it has not.^[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.

Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards.

Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?

A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.^[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.^[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)^[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.^[18]

Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?

A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO₂ or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.

Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends.

Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?

A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.

A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars.^[19] Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. [...] Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'"^[20]
There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change.^[21]^[22] This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices.^[23]^[24]
Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates.^[25] Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Wikipedia's own article.

Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?

A16: No,

Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses.
Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming.
- Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data.^[26]^[27] Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist.

Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?

A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction.

Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?

A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying.

Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?

A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.

Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change.

Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?

A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them.

Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?

A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy.

Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?

A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept.

Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?

A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:^[28]

Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:

Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation,
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN),
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and
Cloud cover on Earth must be declining.

Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it [the experiment] actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step."^[29]

Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?

A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details.

References

^ ^a ^b Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
^ Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)
^ Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.
^ Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.
^ The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.
^ "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.
^ Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
^ The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.
^ "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link‍]}
^ Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
^ Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.
^ Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.
^ Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.
^ Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.
^ "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.
^ Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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This article has been mentioned by multiple media organizations:

Sarah McBroom (March 27, 2007). "Conservapedia.com -- an encyclopedic message from the right". Scripps Howard News Service.
Michael Booth (April 30, 2007). "Grading Wikipedia". The Denver Post.
Lawrence Solomon (July 8, 2008). "Wikipropaganda On Global Warming". CBS News.
"Topics that spark Wikipedia 'edit wars' revealed". BBC News. July 18, 2013.
Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies (August 15, 2015). "On Wikipedia, politically controversial science topics vulnerable to information sabotage". Science Daily.

This article was reviewed by The Denver Post on April 30, 2007.
Comments: "a great primer on the subject", "Following the links takes the interested reader into greater and greater depth, probably further than any traditional encyclopedia I've seen", pleasantly surprised how the main articles "stick to the science and avoid confusing the reader with political controversy.", wishes Wikipedia offered better links to basic weather science. Please examine the findings.
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Strengthen the lead?

I would like to strengthen the lead with a stronger statement about scientific consensus, possibly following "Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming" with something like "This scientific consensus is supported by 97% of publishing climate scientists" from FAQ Q1 and possibly "and by national and international scientific organizations"? Regarding relevant citations, would people accept NASA as a source? I see there are citation numbers in the FAQ; do those relate to the main article's reference numbers? My browser doesn't display anything for them. My concern with the "multiple lines" statement alone is that a non-scientific reader may well think "Oh, they're still arguing." Thank you, Mary Mark Ockerbloom (talk) 12:25, 26 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

There's been enough talk around showing that it isn't still controversial as far as scientists are concerned. If you want to convince like that about it your best bet is to just put the various facts about global warming in a fairly straightforward manner rather than emphasizing the scientific consensus too much which they tend to just see as some conspiracy. That is what this article is about after all Dmcq (talk) 14:51, 26 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

FAQ refs work fine for me, though the heading for that section is formatted differently than for articles so I didn't notice it at first. But clicking a ref hyperlink still takes me to the ref section. As for the proposal, if a reader thinks "multiple lines of scientific evidence" means "some scientists but not all" then god help them with the rest of the article. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:34, 30 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I am in hearty agreement for a stronger statement. Mine would be that "The assertion that global warming is caused by greenhouse gases (GHG) is not a new one. It is simply that a body which receives more radiation energy than it emits gets warmer. Nearly all climate scientists agree that gases which capture infrared radiation interfere with the biosphere's emissions of infrared radiation."
DaveyHume (talk) 14:03, 12 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Error in first sentence of Summary?

Global warming, also referred to as climate change, is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system and its related effects.

The term climate system includes the lithosphere which is 5-100km deep. As far as I know, temperature measurements are limited to the atmosphere and water bodies. Correct? 81.131.171.255 (talk) 12:57, 30 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

The forces of the climate system modulate the lithosphere through geomorphology. prokaryotes (talk) 14:35, 30 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

That's one of many ways the lithosphere interacts with the other four parts of the climate system and vice versa.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:08, 30 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

@81.131.171.255 First, we don't report on what any of us think we know. We only report on what the reliable sources say, and in this case they say "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal." That said, sure we measure the temp of the lithosphere. I've helped my wife take such measurements many times. But no on here should care about my personal experience. All we really care about is how hard you've searched for reliable sources and whether you found any. Did you try a google search and google scholar search on _EARTHS CRUST TEMPERATURE_ or _TEMPERATURE LITHOSPHERE_ ? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:08, 30 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I suggest, NewsAndEventGuy, that the article replace "climate system" with "biosphere"?

I criticize the FACT that "global warming" is also referred to as "climate change", and I hold Wikipedia in high enough esteem that I reckon the difference should be noted here. It could say "Global warming, which is believed likely to cause (inconvenient/drastic/dangerous) climate change."

-- pick one of those in parentheses.

Global warming is quite well defined in the article, but "Climate Change" is a timid phrase, and in fact drastic climate change is a predicted consequence of global biosphere warming. It is far easier to demonstrate that there is a thermodynamic radiation imbalance affecting the biosphere, than to model the consequent climate changes. The people and industries with an interest in denying the reality of human caused GW take delight in the absurdly irrelevant assertion that "for billions of years the climate has been changing"
DaveyHume (talk) 13:39, 12 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Arctic amplification

William M. Connolley please elaborate on this edit, in particular the removal of the Nature study featuring your old colleagues at RC - https://en.wikipedia.org/enwiki/w/index.php?title=Global_warming&type=revision&diff=852657378&oldid=852657235 If you do not object of mentioning the study, please re-add that part, thanks! @William M. Connolley: prokaryotes (talk) 14:10, 30 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

What William objected to was that the edit got cause and effect all mixed up. Arctic warming isn't called "arctic amplification"; rather, arctic amplification causes warming to proceed at a faster pace than at lower latitudes (see the article on arctic amplification that you linked). Likewise, extreme weather in mid-latitudes doesn't cause arctic warming; rather, arctic warming causes changes to planetary wave patterns that could be associated with extreme weather (as explained in the abstract of the article that you cited). William M. Connolley may of course correct my interpretation as necessary. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:34, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

No need for correction you're exactly right William M. Connolley (talk) 12:14, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, I'm aware of that mix-up, but why not just correct that next time? prokaryotes (talk) 12:23, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

AA own section?

NewsAndEventsGuy, the regional section also refers to short term fluctuations, which AA is not. This topic could also be expanded a little more, and have more updates, for instance AA is much more than twice the global mean already, and more elaborating on the weather patterns, and long term scenarios (temperature gradient vanishing due to lack of ice in the Arctic). I suggest we either have a AA sub section, or a sub section for short term trends (ie. cold blob) prokaryotes (talk) 13:22, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Instead of the frustrating experience of live tweaking, I agree the whole section could stand a refresher. Suggest you draft a comprehensive suggestion in your sandbox then post the draft to talk, and we'll all work together much more smoothly. For examples of that approach, search contribs by user @Enescot: NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:24, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

We really only need to decide sections order. prokaryotes (talk) 13:31, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I'm opposed to a section "arctic amplification" and "regional observations" side by side, as you already know. The reason is that arctic amplification is an example of regional observations. I'm also opposed to just putting "arctic amplification" as a subheading under regional observations until there is consensus on adding additional subheadings under that section. So it seems your perception of what we "really need to decide" differs from mine, and I have already described what I believe is the most effective way to proceed. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:36, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I like regional too, lets eject the short term stuff into a new section then? prokaryotes (talk) 13:45, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Or Regional and then another sub section here for AA. prokaryotes (talk) 13:49, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Don't thinks so. Whatever the title, the text in this section seems to emphasize that the vagaries of place and time are interesting (so we can talk about them a bit) but more importantly they all miss the point because the issue is global long term averages, not vagaries in either time or region. Also, all the stuff you added about extreme weather belongs in another section entirely, because the section is not discussing extreme weather, its discussing observed temperature. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:52, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, and this emphasis that we need a dedicated section, because AA is observed temperature + extreme weather. prokaryotes (talk) 17:30, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I don't think you're following the sources accurately. AA is hypothesized - subject to ongoing debate - to contribute to extreme weather in the northern hemisphere but AA itself is independent of the existence of extreme weather. Then of course there is the ANT-arctic regions, and so at wikipedia "arctic amplification" redirects to polar amplification where sentence one defines the phenomena for both poles in terms of warming (not extreme weather) saying, "Polar amplification is the phenomenon that any change in the net radiation balance (for example greenhouse intensification) tends to produce a larger change in temperature near the poles than the planetary average." In addition, elsewhere I have pointed out you arer adding the connection to extreme weather in WIKIVOICE, even though Dr Francis herself in December wrote an essay summarizing the continuing debate and open research questions. There is a lot to be said for inline attribution in these cases. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 18:26, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

AA causes more EW, "The stalling of the northern hemisphere jet stream is being increasingly firmly linked to global warming, in particular to the rapid heating of the Arctic and resulting loss of sea ice." https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/27/extreme-global-weather-climate-change-michael-mann The content I've added is reliable sourced. If you want to add to it, go for it. prokaryotes (talk) 18:36, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

This quote does not provide a different definition of AA so changes nothing. (A) The faster warming compared to other places is a regional temperature observation that could reasonably be in the section for regional temperature observations. (B) Re neutral presentation of AA's hypothesized impact on EW by tweaking the jetstream it's an oxymoron to say "increasingly firmly linked". That's like saying 110%, or "definitely (maybe)". (C) Neutral word choice aside, the hypothesized link to extreme weather belongs in a section covering effects, not temperature observations. A likely candidate is the existing subsection Global_warming#Environmental which already has a bullet point for extreme weather. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 18:59, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I've moved the AA stuff to the feedback section, since AA is considered a Planetary scale feedback https://websites.pmc.ucsc.edu/~jnoble/papers/ArcticAmplification.pdf prokaryotes (talk) 19:43, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Aspects of it probably belong in more than one place, as this thread attests, There are regional temp observations to be explained, the feedback aspect, and the hypothesized link to extreme weather. Maybe shoehorning it all into one section isn't the best way to help readers understand how the big topic of this article has many pieces that interact in a systemic way? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 20:10, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

The mention on temps warming twice is still at the regional temps section. The AA section is not really about EW per se, it's just about attribution and the mechanism. This could be extended ofc, with for instance going into more details about the jet stream patterns, and the subsequent record events (extreme heat, rain, drought, fire etc). prokaryotes (talk) 20:21, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

FYI, on Aug 20 a new literature review from Potsdam Instit was published. Story at scidaily NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:46, 21 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Similar to last yrs Uni of Kansas report 'Weather whiplash' triggered by changing climate will degrade Midwest's drinking water A few more active editors for this article here would help to keep up with the science. prokaryotes (talk) 12:21, 21 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Keep up in the detail articles, sure. Rare is the time any one new paper should find its way into this article, since this article should be a grand summary similar to the WG1 WG2 WG3 SPMs. Said another rway this page should be a fast read from 30,000.... no make that 50,000 feet with the big picture points. Each one new paper fills in details under those points and can be fleshed out in child articles further down the tree. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:26, 21 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

constraints on climate feedback likelihood

This part in the climate feedback section makes no sense to me, "The IPCC projections previously mentioned span the "likely" range (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement)[121] for the selected emissions scenarios. However, the IPCC's projections do not reflect the full range of uncertainty.[122] The lower end of the "likely" range appears to be better constrained than the upper end." -- can we remove this, or does it belong in the model section? prokaryotes (talk) 21:31, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

It could be better explained I suppose. Did you spend any time with the main RS that supports the statement? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 21:41, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

That's funny, it's the Synthesis report with hundreds of pages, what you cite is not really about cf. prokaryotes (talk) 22:02, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I cited the RS in our article for that bit of text. Yes, it appears in the AR4 WG1 SYR. No, its not a cite to the entire thing which you say is hundreds of pages. It's a cite to a specific sub sub sub section. Did you read this bit all the way through? I thought it explained things just fine. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 22:19, 31 July 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Suicide research

There seems to be a bit of a discussion in the edit summaries as whether to include the recent research that suggests that global warming might cause more suicide. Let us streamline that discussion here. In my opinion, there are a couple of criteria to be met before research should be added to a general and well-read article as this one:

It should be confirmed by multiple sources; it should not be scientifically controversial.
It should be a general study; applicable to all affected regions.
If those two are true, it should not get undue weight by devoting multiple lines to it.

I'm not yet convinced that this research should be included. There is still substantial doubt about this study, see for instance the Scientific American review of the research (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-warming-linked-to-higher-suicide-rates-across-north-america/). An other article linking global warming to suicides found that the link global warming-suicide is not general, but only happens during growth season in India: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/07/25/1701354114.

If it is included, I strongly believe it should be summarized in one sentence, and not only mention two specific countries and one research article. Other effects are also summarized in one sentence in this bullet point. Why do people think it should be included/not included? Femkemilene (talk) 08:16, 3 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Move to Effects of global warming on humans This is a featured article sitting at the top of the topical tree, with the most traffic of all articles on the tree. So this article should be as short, punchy, and well-cited as possible. Adding the latest topical soundbite int he media stream works against this and weakens this article. In addition, we need to be wary of WP:RECENTISM when dealing with kinda new ideas of this sort. This article can certainly include in summary form reference to physical and psychological health impacts.... actually strike "can" and say "should". This article should include a few words about possible physical and psychological health impacts. That's important. But we don't need every paper on that topic as they come off the press to be added here. Instead, shuttle people off to the appropriate sub-articles. When including this material at the subarticles be on the lookout for WP:WIKIVOICE when dealing with new stuff before the global scientific community has had ample time to comment. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:17, 3 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Notice that this 2011 study cites (Fritze et al., 2008, Anderson, 2001; Basu & Samet, 2002; Qi, Tong, & Hu, 2009) in regards to increased suicide rates. The study is also cited at the section for psychological impacts at Effects of global warming on humans. prokaryotes (talk) 00:25, 4 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Oh right, I did move this to that article, and you only reverted the part of the move at this page NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:06, 4 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

? I've added the section on psychology in 2013. My point is, that there are more studies in the general literature. I think a mention here and more extensive over at the effects page. prokaryotes (talk) 01:11, 4 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

For clarification, I cannot see any move to the effects page by you. Here is a recent more extensive article by wired on this subject. Looking at above cited SA article, it appears to only look at North America and recent publication. prokaryotes (talk) 01:45, 4 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Oops. I confused Effects of global warming on humans with Effects of global warming on human health. I had moved this text to the latter and its still there. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:56, 4 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Okay, but don't you think it requires a mention at the main article here (there is lots of research on this, don't just look at recent coverage, I could extend a ref with above cited PDF study from 2011)? I'm perfectly comfortable with a one-liner. prokaryotes (talk) 02:07, 4 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

In summary form, sure. E.g., Many human mental health issues have also been linked to global warming, e.g., blah (cite), blahblah (Cite), and suicide (Cite). At The main sub article Effects of global warming maybe expand the blah to a full sentence. At the specific sub-sub-article Effects of global warming on human health we can expand still more. Cramming the recommended soundbite from each paper as they come along into the top article makes for a crummy top article that will have a very hard time whenever it comes up at WP:FAR. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 10:40, 4 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Tibi adsentior. prokaryotes (talk) 17:28, 4 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

English please. HiLo48 (talk) 23:03, 4 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Clathrate gun

If you know the RSs for this subject, please take a gander at the mega changes underway at Clathrate_gun_hypothesis. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:35, 4 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

RSs? Femkemilene (talk) 19:11, 4 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Sorry, try this link RSs NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 19:16, 4 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Planetary boundaries

Re this edit, which added article Planetary boundaries as one of the main articles under our section climate change feedback, the reason give was that the concept is supposedly a framework to prevent feedbacks, per new PNAS study, only the cited paper does not mention the planetary feedback concept. Additionally, the concept is still being debated and so far as I know has yet to be embraced by the UN or UNFCC. So I reverted that particular edit here.
It's certainly an interesting paradigm, and touches on many topics including mitigation, adaptation, politics, but it isn't clear what RSs would allow us to work it in here, or how that could best be done in context with the article as a whole. But if anyone wants to start with doing research in the RSs, I certainly have an open mind about it. Just needs to pass muster with our various guidelines. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 21:55, 8 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Rockström, co-author of the PNAS study is the utmost expert on planetary boundaries (The PNAS study acknowledges members of the Planetary Boundary team). In his 2009 study Rockström, postulated a planetary boundary framework, which is based on feedback processes in the climate system. The PNAS study which identified ten tipping points, and related thresholds, basically uses the planetary boundary concept. A bit unclear why they not refer to it directly. However, the page should be linked there, then with See also, because climate tipping points are modulated within the planetary climate system constraints. If someone could take a peak into this study, many of the same authors, and think it mentions feedbacks and boundaries http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2015/01/14/science.1259855/tab-pdf prokaryotes (talk) 22:18, 8 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

This study connects both terms Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity prokaryotes (talk) 22:21, 8 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

You know these sources better than me. Go for it. Just make sure whatever you do is based on what others will read in the sources rather than applying the rest of your knowledge to your reading of the sources. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 22:23, 8 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Okay will add something, also the PB article seems like it needs an update. prokaryotes (talk) 22:26, 8 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Warming in what time period?

This concerns the second line of the article: "Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming." Warming is a relative term. I suggest we add "over the last century" to the end to clarify that the warming has occurred relative to what it was a 100 years ago. As the IPCC source cited for this statement also notes the time period over which the warming has occurred (recent decades). -Obsidi (talk) 14:29, 16 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Opposed it may be a good faith suggestion but per WP:LEAD this is supposed to summarize the main body of the article and we cover this pretty thoroughly in the main body. The lead is already excessively bloated with descriptors and a hint of tech speak that reduces the friendliness of the lead's read. If we add every nuance that can be supported by similar reasoning the lead will become an article instead of a summary! NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:41, 16 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Opposed as use of the word "is" clearly mens it's now, a continuing process. . . . dave souza, talk 14:08, 17 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Studies on indoor Co2 emissions

Recently, I've added two study results on CO2 concentrations assessing indoor Co2 concentrations, and it has been removed, however, the projected CO2 amount in Earth's atmosphere by the end of the century (outdoors) is in this ballpark, thus while not aiming at these trajectories, these studies appear relevant. I acknowledge a certain OR attribution in these findings, when posting it here, but it appears still, relevant, since it matches this topic. It is sad that we have to wait for studies to point this out directly. @Gorthian: prokaryotes (talk) 04:51, 19 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Well, I would say that is definitely OR. We have no idea how the concentrations of CO2 in the general atmosphere would affect humans. Until specific studies have been done on just that, extrapolating from indoor effects to atmospheric effects is pure speculation. There are just too many unknown factors.

Those studies would be good citations in the carbon dioxide article, though. :-) — Gorthian (talk) 05:01, 19 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I agree with Gorthian. If the extrapolation to global warming is made in the articles themselves, you could post it on health effects of global warming as well. Definitely important for CO2 article, but not sufficiently relevant for global warming. Femkemilene (talk) 07:19, 19 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Same here. The bigger problem, in my opinion, is that about the time the Steffen "Hothouse" paper made scary headlines it seems like you've really been shoehorning in disjointed bits of cursory language from primary sources. It's illegal to litter, you know. Makes a ton of work for others cleaning up. If you want to look into this, with due time and labor, I just did some cursory searching on Carbon dioxide oognition in google and google scholar. Search the last two years only. There's a ton of material you could master before figuring out how to best improve our articles based on secondary sources. But most eds don't do that, because it means work and time and care. Here's three to get you started. These may not all be secondary RS but can get you started, and their bibliographies are further resources

NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 09:37, 19 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

@Gorthian:, I wrote about this after reading [this new Forbes article]. Why would be the CO2 effect indoors differently to outdoors, it is the same toxicity. Forbes: How Does Climate Change Affect The Air We Breathe Indoors? Money Quote, "At 600 ppm we start to see the first hints of reduced cognitive function as CO2 is increasing in our blood stream. At 1000 ppm we see distinct impairment. At 2500 ppm we are effectively incompetent." prokaryotes (talk) 12:14, 19 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I think the indoor emphasis is due to the fact that we do not experience these CO2 levels outdoors, yet. prokaryotes (talk) 12:21, 19 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

@NewsAndEventsGuy:, thank you for looking into this in more detail, and providing more spot on studies, will follow this topic and may add something more on point per WP guides at a later time (unless someone else does). prokaryotes (talk) 12:39, 19 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Even if this topic was relevant to the article (

This is going off into the weeds. Direct health effects of CO2 are covered in other articles (e.g., Carbon_dioxide#Human_physiology) but aren't on-point for an article about global warming. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 12:55, 19 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I do think that if good research (as in multiple studies, clear consensus) is available, we should include it in a subarticle about global warming as well (health effects). We have done the same for ocean acidification, which is included in this article. It is not a direct effect of the warming, but definitely very closely related. @Prokaryotes:, before you spend a lot of energy looking for RS, maybe it would be wise to first find consensus on the relevance. I do not support inclusion, but might change mind if the sources are a) about global warming (not indoors) b) there is a clear consensus c) the magnitude of the effect is similar to other health effects. Femkemilene (talk) 13:06, 19 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Whether cognition studies with CO2 are relevant to global warming isn't up to us. It's up to what we find in RSs. And so....
Opining = bad.
Finding Reading Collating Comprehending RSs = good
Let's close this thread as Done for now. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:29, 19 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

conservative

As P is trying to add "underestimate" (in Wikivoice) in the lead, using what looks like an advocacy publishing house, I thought I'd just remind us about this section of another article - Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change#Conservative_nature_of_IPCC_reports NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:50, 20 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

The source meets, "Self-published expert sources may be considered reliable when produced by an established expert on the subject matter, whose work in the relevant field has previously been published by reliable third-party publications.", anyhow, the part in question is a cite of Naomi Oreskes study on this subject. Thus, a reliable secondary source for this claim. The report itself is more technical. prokaryotes (talk) 00:54, 20 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

In any event it is inappropriate for the lead, as the lead is supposed to be a summary of the article body. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:57, 20 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

The Climate feedback, and Climate Model section both mention it. The page is founded on the IPCC results, and when experts (the report is co-authored by Kevin Anderson, James Hansen, Michael E. Mann, Michael Oppenheimer, Naomi Oreskes, Stefan Rahmstorf, Eric Rignot, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Kevin Trenberth, and others), dedicate an entire report on this, publish study on this specific circumstance, then this should be mentioned. prokaryotes (talk) 01:13, 20 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

The precise cite for the study is Brysse, K, Oreskes, N, O’Reilly, J & Oppenheimer, M 2013, ‘Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?’, Global Environmental Change, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 327-337 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378012001215 prokaryotes (talk) 01:18, 20 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I agree with NewsAndEventGuy and Shock Brigade Harvester Boris that this should not be in the lede. First of all, there are enough reliable sources that we don't really have to rely on self-published experts. For me more importantly is that the article should be about global warming mostly and not focus on the sources. Especially the lede is not the place to discuss some meta-analysis of climate science. When there is expert consensus that the IPCC is outdated/too conservative (sea level rise as far as I can tell), we might simply want to use a different source. (In terms of sea level rise, IPCC will have a special report september next year about this, I expect it too have slightly higher estimates). Femkemilene (talk) 08:41, 20 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I have removed it from it lead. Same sort of reasons. Wikipedia is not in the business of saving the world, it is an encyclopaedia and should say what is in reliable sources with due weight. When they submit it to peer review and there's been some discussion about it then it could qualify to go into the lead. Dmcq (talk) 09:04, 20 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Arguments not mentioning underestimation, conservatism of projections in lede space:

.."the lead is supposed to be a summary of the article body"

The article already states "Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that predicted.[156] Precipitation increased proportionally to atmospheric humidity, and hence significantly faster than global climate models predict.[157][158] Since 1990, sea level has also risen considerably faster than models predicted it would."

"..should say what is in reliable sources ... submit it to peer review" and "don't really have to rely on self-published experts"

The study has been published in peer review, has a cite count of 99, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378012001215 If you do not like the BT link, or the direct link, there is lots of coverage in reliable secondary sources, ie. https://skepticalscience.com/climate-scientists-esld.html or take this study which highlights the key finding, and references the study "Moreover, the systematic tendency of climate models to underestimate temperature change during warm paleoclimates suggests that climate models are more likely to underestimate than to overestimate the amount of long-term future change." and "suggest that climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/15/ prokaryotes (talk) 09:38, 20 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

The article from 2013 looks okay but I am extremely leery of sticking in publications from think tanks into the lead, and that's what I removed. Have we a more recent study as well, that would be good but I'd go for the 2013 one if anything. Dmcq (talk) 11:26, 20 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

.. "no meta-analysis of sources in lede?" Femkemilene (talk) 12:27, 20 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Point of no return study

@NewsAndEventsGuy, can you explain why you reverted this edit, what do you mean with, "misconstrued primary technical paper", in your summary edit? prokaryotes (talk) 23:02, 30 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Your text (which I reverted)

A 2018 study concluded that too little climate actions by 2035 could result in crossing a point of no return to limit global warming below 2°C.^[1]

The key misrepresentation here is that you assumed that post 2035 renewable energy growth would only be 2%, whereas the study also contemplates a scenario with growth rate of 5% after 2045 yielding the same odds. Your user page says you blog at climatestate.com, a policy advocacy site. Often your take on WP:PRIMARY sources seems to combine with confirmation bias and your admitted alarm. In this case, you reported the worst scenario in this study, simply ignoring the paper does contemplate a more aggressive climate mitigation effort at a later point in time. Besides those key criticisms, I also think this text is so generalized that it adds nothing. We have already said elsewhere that scientists recommend policy action. Your text says "too little climate action"... what action? Adaptation? The paper is about mitigation specifically. And "too little" begs for a ^{[clarification needed]} tag, and the paper does elaborate on this. Finally you say "Could result", which is wishy washy mambly pambly... is that 1% odds? 99%? The study quantifies the likelihood at 67% I think. To be honest, this particular PRIMARY source is a bit to dense for me to pretend to understand the nuances. But to go back to the beginning, I think you misrepresented the source in support of a POV that we should act immediately. Whether I agree with that sentiment or not is besides the point here at Wikipedia. Our beliefs either way are not a reason to misconstrue a PRIMARY source. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:46, 30 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

References

^ "The point of no return for climate action: effects of climate uncertainty and risk tolerance". Earth System Dynamics. 2018. doi:10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018. {{cite journal}}: Unknown parameter |authors= ignored (help)CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)

The press release from the European Geological Union, If governments don’t act decisively by 2035 to fight climate change, humanity could cross a point of no return after which limiting global warming below 2°C in 2100 will be unlikely.. The press release (and the study btw), say pretty much what I tried to add to article space. I kept it brief because the article is so large. Climate action is a synonym for climate mitigation, hence why that part was added to the mitigation section. prokaryotes (talk) 00:09, 31 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

On the main point, the press release you cite doesn't only say what you say it says. You're misrepresenting it the same way you misrepresented the PRIMARY source. The press release explains the likelihood (67%), and talks about two scenarios, not one.... 2% growth in renewables post-2035 and 5% post-2045, just as I explained above. From the press release If we were to reduce emissions at a faster rate, by increasing the share of renewable energy by 5% each year, we would buy another 10 years. I'm not opposed to making appropriate use of this work, but your edit is not appropriate use. On the small quibble, where is "climate action" defined specifically as a synonym of climate mitigation and excluding climate adaptation or geoengineering? From the lead of this article (which is our top one in the topic) Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, building systems resilient to its effects, and possible future climate engineering. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:26, 31 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Carbon budget

The other more fundamental problem is this one-liner inserted the scary phrase "point of no return", but the study's true value (and related works) is to develop the concept of Carbon budget across our climate articles. Currently "carbon budget" is a redir to Carbon cycle but (A) there used to be text at 'carbon budget' and (b) the target article carbon cycle does not appear talk about carbon budget. Neither does the main article Global warming nor climate mitigation, at least on a rapid skim reading. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:13, 31 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Because it is scary, that is why the inventor of the Carbon Budget, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, wrote in the foreword of the report we discussed in above conservative section, "Climate change is now reaching the end-game ... the issue is the very survival of our civilization". prokaryotes (talk) 03:23, 31 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Methane FYI

FYI methane article seems based on old sources and may need big update. GWP and half lifes are a bit too deep for me to do more than check sources and attempt to do verification. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:05, 4 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Scientific discussion about existential threat to civilisation

More recent discourse goes beyond, we have a consensus, and the IPCC is too conservative in some aspects, or potentially catastrophic climate change, more like we have an emergency. For instance: As policy continues to stagnate, news.com.au contacted nearly 30 scientists across the country to get their views on the contentious issue. Overwhelmingly they agreed Australia wasn’t doing enough about our “existential threat to civilisation”., or If governments don’t act decisively by 2035 to fight climate change, humanity could cross a point of no return after which limiting global warming below 2°C in 2100 will be unlikely, or ..the issue is the very survival of our civilization Shouldn't this be also covered in the scientific discussion section, with extending to Scientific opinion on climate change? The citations above establish notability via experts in their fields, peer-reviewed journal, and/or through reliable secondary sources. prokaryotes (talk) 12:37, 5 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

We have one sentence in the scientific discussion section addressing exactly that: In November 2017, a second warning to humanity signed by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries stated that "the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and agricultural production – particularly from farming ruminants for meat consumption" is "especially troubling".

The first source you're mentioning only has nearly 30 Australian scientist, so the current source is better. The second source does not mention emergencies or things in that directions (tbf, I haven't read the paper since its first draft). Alarm among climate scientists is definitely present, but I think that the current text clearly demonstrates that and that the two sources you are quoting do not provide a better basis than the current source. Femkemilene (talk) 12:59, 5 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

There is a difference between, potentially catastrophic climate change, and existential threat to civilisation.prokaryotes (talk) 13:16, 5 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I understand that. There is also a difference between nearly 30 scientists and 15,364 scientists. Because this is a very broad article, small questionnaires don't fit in here. Femkemilene (talk) 13:35, 5 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

existential threat to civilisation doesn't belong anywhere near the scientific discussion section William M. Connolley (talk) 13:38, 5 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

"...news.com.au contacted nearly 30 scientists across the country to get their views on the contentious issue". Statements made in such interviews are not reliable from a scientific point of view. What you need are peer reviewed articles where the threat to civilization is seriously investigated, and review articles based on such articles. There may well exist such scientific studies on how climate change could lead to a collapse of our civilization. If sthat's the case, we should discuss the issue based on such articles. Count Iblis (talk) 14:44, 5 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Yes there are, and this emerging scientific opinion isn't really debated as far as I know. See, Michael E Mann, or here (UN, which I think is based on this study), here (Effective Thesis, looks like a review of some sorts), here (Scripps, peer reviewed study discussion). There is also lots of secondary sources on this recent PNAS study, for instance briefly discussed here (Science Media Centre), here (World Economic Forum discusses it). prokaryotes (talk) 14:50, 5 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

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