Draft:The 1912 US election (TL-191)

1912 United States presidential election

November 5, 1912
531 members of the Electoral College 266 electoral votes needed to win
Turnout	61.8% 2.8 pp
Nominee Theodore Roosevelt Eugene V. Debs Party Democratic Socialist Home state New York Indiana Running mate Walter McKenna Joseph F. Guffey Electoral vote 308 70 States carried 26 7 Popular vote 9,935,289 6,103,234 Percentage 57.9% 32.1%
Presidential election results map. Blue denotes states won by Roosevelt/McKenna, red denotes those won by Debs/Guffrey. Numbers indicate the number of electoral votes allotted to each state.
President before election Nelson Aldrich Democratic Elected President Theodore Roosevelt Democratic

The 1912 US election was the 32nd quadrennial US election, held on Tuesday, November 5, 1912. Democratic Governor of New York Theodore Roosevelt defeated Socialist Governor of Indiana Eugene V. Debs and Republican Theodore E. Burton.

Outgoing President Nelson Aldrich, having decided against seeking a third term, set the stage for one of the most fiercely contested nomination races in the history of the Democratic Party. The race began almost immediately after New Year's, with a crowded field of candidates vying for the nomination. However, only two became serious contenders: the bold and progressive Governor of New York, Theodore Roosevelt, known for his aggressive, reformist policies; and the conservative, affable Senator from Massachusetts, Henry Cabot Lodge. Their rivalry would become one of the tightest in the party's history, with Roosevelt's dynamic and crusading vision ultimately prevailing over Lodge's more cautious, traditional platform.

While the Democratic race was closely contested, the Socialist nomination was anything but. The convention swiftly and decisively renominated Eugene V. Debs as the party's standard-bearer. Debs had also run in 1908, and although he lost in a landslide to Aldrich, that election marked a turning point for the Socialist movement. Debs’ performance was the best in the party’s history, bringing the Socialists closer to the mainstream of American politics than ever before.

The Republican National Convention took place in Chicago from June 29th to July 5th, where delegates promptly nominated Theodore E. Burton of Ohio for president and James J. Couzens of Minnesota for vice president. The party's platform emphasized key Midwestern issues, such as immigration reform, Railroad Rate Reform, and the expansion of greenback currency. Notably, the convention saw the rising influence of the party's isolationist faction, which strongly condemned the Quadruple Alliance with Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy, as well as broader American involvement in European affairs.

In the end, the Republican vote proved inconsequential. The fate of the nation hinged on the battle between Roosevelt and Debs. Yet, in the pre-Great War, Remembrance Era USA, the Socialist Party stood little chance of victory. Roosevelt quickly gained the upper hand, promising to dismantle the power of the trusts, break up monopolies, and deliver a "Square Deal" to American workers. Meanwhile, Debs ran a campaign centered on opposing the Remembrance Era's legacy and empowering unions across the nation to wield greater influence.

Roosevelt would triumph, trouncing Debs with a sound majority, winning 308 electoral votes and capturing 26 states, compared to Debs' meagre 70 electoral votes and 7 states. Roosevelt received 57.9% of the popular vote, with workers voting overwhelmingly for the man who sounded the horns of armament and screamed for a square meal for the Proletariat (This would also be the last time that the Democrats would score a majority of the Worker Vote until the election of 1932). While Debs won comfortablely in states like West Virginia, where Worker Unions were powerful and influencial. Unbeknownst at the time, Roosevelt would lead the nation through one of its gravest crises, the First Great War.

Nominations

Democratic Party nomination

Democratic Party (United States) 1912 Democratic Party ticket
Theodore Roosevelt	Walter McKenna
for President	for Vice President
Governor of New York (1909–1913)	U.S. Representative from Massachusetts (1899–1913)
HCV: 561 votes 1,202,492 votes

Other major candidates

Candidates in this section are sorted by number of delegates won in the nomination race
Henry Cabot Lodge	Charles W. Fairbanks	Thomas Marshall	Judson Harmon	Simeon Baldwin
US Senator from Massachusetts (1893–1924)	U.S. Vice President from Indiana (1897–1915)	Governor of Ohio (1909–1913)	Governor of Massachusetts (1911–1914)	Governor of Indiana (1909–1913)
LN: July 2, 1912 328 Delegates 790,610 votes	LN: July 2, 1912 87 Delegates 271,066 votes	LN: July 2, 1912 48 Delegates 225,889 votes	LN: July 2, 1912 36 Delegates 112,922 votes	LN: July 2, 1912 14 Delegates 0 votes

The campaign for the Democratic nomination for the United States presidential election of 1912 started as soon as the New Year began. On New Year’s Day, 1912, both Theodore Roosevelt and Henry Cabot Lodge announced their intention to run for president. Although other candidates entered the race for the Democratic nomination like incumbent Vice President Charles W. Fairbanks of Indiana, Govenor Thomas R. Marshall of Indiana, Governor Judson Harmon of Ohio and Governor Simeon E. Baldwin of Connecticut, with the growing unpopularity of the Aldrich administration’s weak foreign policy and its involvement in the National Road Way Administration scandal most Conservative and Reed Democrats were discredited. In the minds of the public the contest was only between the two Mahan candidates Theodore Roosevelt and Henry Cabot Lodge.

1912 would go down as the strangest race for the Democratic Party nomination in United States history. Both of the two major candidates refused to publicly condemn each other in public. Each would often praise the other, while each offered their own vision for the future. Ultimately, this played against Lodge because of Roosevelt’s greater popularity. Still, in January of 1912 Henry Cabot Lodge initiated a plan he had been formulating for nearly eight years. Lodge used his influence with the Democratic Party bosses to push his candidacy and moved to gain the support of the party machinery. Roosevelt on the other hand relied on grass roots organization and popular support. Both candidates toured the country offering similar views on foreign policy, but differing on domestic issues.

Lodge began his campaign with a speaking tour of New England and the major cities targeted by the Royal Navy in 1881 during the Second Mexican War. Lodge’s campaign focused on his work in the Senate and as Secretary of State making the nation strong again and gaining its new German and Austro-Hungarian allies. He reminded the people of those cities bombarded by the Royal Navy of the need to expand the Navy faster than President Aldrich’s two for four Dreadnought schedule. Lodge also campaigned on the promises of an increase in military spending, strengthening the alliance with Germany and a return to the policies of the Mahan administration.

On the domestic front Lodge campaigned for limited government interference in the economy. He supported the national rationing program and service in the national Merchant Marine for three years in lieu of formal military service. He also courted western and Christian voters, by promising to use the C.I.D. to prosecute Mormon polygamists. Unlike Aldrich, Lodge publicly supported Civil Service reform. While this was generally seen as a break from the Party bosses, in private he argued to party bosses that unlike him Roosevelt would use the Federal Police powers to go after corruption on the state level. Lodge also controversially supported strict new immigration measures, similar to those proposed in the 1910 Bill.

Roosevelt on the other hand capitalized on his popularity with the working class Democrats, especially out west. Roosevelt, knowing his base was secure in his home state of New York, toured much of the Midwest and the states beyond the Mississippi River. As the owner of several substantial cattle ranches and the first major Democratic candidate to focus so much attention on the western states, Roosevelt was hugely popular in the western regions of the United States. Roosevelt called for a more expansive role of the federal government in the economy, encapsulated in his Square Deal policy, which he touted as an alternative to the Socialist Party’s program of public ownership of the major industries. The Square Deal centered on Civil Service Reform, an end to child labor, higher corporate taxes, recognition of the rights of American workers to form unions and countering the influence of the corporate trusts that restricted the free market. This policy proved to be popular with both American workers and many middle class voters that had been slowly migrating towards the Socialist Party.

As another one of Mahan protégé’s, Roosevelt’s foreign policy was similar to Lodge’s in many respects. However, while Lodge spoke mainly on Naval Policy, Roosevelt emphasized the need to reinvigorate the Army. Roosevelt argued that Aldrich had let the US Army decline relative to the armies of the Dominion of Canada and the CSA and as a result the US Army needed to be strengthened. He called for both an expansion of the full time and reserve army. He also called for more money to be spent on better equipment, training, border defense and medical insurance for all veterans. This played well in the Border States and in the Republican and Socialist districts that had had a disproportionate number of their citizens conscripted.

The greatest difference between the two candidates was their views on the American worker to organize. While Lodge came out against any Union that supported striking or walking off the job, Roosevelt supported what he called responsible unions. To Roosevelt those were Unions that carried out peaceful strikes, did not support industrial sabotage and did not interfere with industries key to national security. In 1912, two major Labor Strikes broke out in the United States, the New England Mill Workers Strike and another Miners Strike in Pennsylvania. The New England Mill Workers Strike had considerable support from the Socialist Party. Socialist Party figure Elizabeth Gurley Flynn even came to Lawrence, Massachusetts to support the strikers. Together with Theodore Roosevelt she masterminded the strikes signature move, the sending of hundreds of the strikers' hungry children to sympathetic families in New York, New Jersey, and Vermont. The move drew widespread sympathy, especially after police stopped a further exodus, leading to violence at the Lawrence Train Station. Congressional hearings followed, resulting in exposure of shocking conditions in the Lawrence mills and calls for investigation of the “wool trust.” The mill owners soon decided to settle the strike, giving workers in Lawrence and throughout New England raises of up to 20 percent. Roosevelt supported this move as peaceful and responsible, while Lodge came out against it. Roosevelt even visited striking laborers in Pennsylvania. In the end, both of these moves helped to win Roosevelt greater support among working class voters.

The election was also unique, because it was the first time that significant numbers of delegates to the national conventions were elected in presidential preference primaries. Primary elections were advocated by the progressive faction of the Democratic Party, which wanted to break the control of political parties by party bosses. Roosevelt had been instrumental to its introduction in the state of New York. Altogether, fifteen states held Democratic primaries. Roosevelt won three of the first four primaries in Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Lodge, who was always popular in New England, won New Hampshire. However, beginning with his runaway victory in Illinois on April 9, Roosevelt won ten of the eleven presidential primaries, in order, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Oregon, Maryland, California, New York, Ohio, New Jersey, and Dakota, losing only Massachusetts to Lodge. Despite Roosevelt’s commanding primary lead, most of these primaries were not binding, which still gave Lodge hope he could pull off a coup in the convention. The Democratic National Convention was held that year in Baltimore in the last week of June, from June 26th to June 29th. With President Aldrich’s personal popularity at an all-time low after his vetoes of the popular civil service reform and child labor bills the public had soured on conservative candidates like Senator Henry Cabot Lodge and Vice-President Charles W. Fairbanks. In spite of this, Lodge still believed that he could rely on the power of the party bosses. Lodge’s best hope was to deadlock the convention and slowly use his influence in the party to pull delegates toward him. Though Roosevelt had won all but one of the primaries, they were essentially non-binding. Unfortunately for this plan, Lodge had misread the national mood and that of the delegates. All across the country the Democrats had chosen younger reform candidates over their conservative counterparts. Many party bosses in the big cities defected fearing backlashes from their sizable immigrant population. Other party bosses began to fear that if Roosevelt was not nominated in 1912, then the Democrats might not win in 1916. In fact many Socialist leaders pushed their members to vote for Lodge in the primary believing he would be an easier candidate to defeat.

Lodge and Roosevelt were pretty much split in the more populous eastern states. It was Roosevelt’s popularity in the west and border states that became decisive. Roosevelt’s fame from the Newland Irrigation Act and his Midwestern campaigning were a decisive factor in the campaign. Most importantly Roosevelt’s shrewd promise to make George McKenna, an influential party boss in Pennsylvania, his running mate sealed his victory. Roosevelt defied tradition and arrived at the convention to accept his nomination. In his speech he compared the coming presidential campaign to the end of days and stated that the Reformers were “Where standing at Armageddon and ready to battle for the Lord.”

Presidential Ballot
Theodore Roosevelt	561
Henry Cabot Lodge	328
Charles W. Fairbanks	87
Thomas Marshall	48
Judson Harmon	36
Simeon Baldwin	17

Vice Presidential Ballot
Walter McKenna	596
George Johnson	21
Thomas Marshall	20